OPPOSITION CANDIDATE: "IF THIS ELECTION WERE TO BE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 002466 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2011 TAGS: PREL KDEM YE SUBJECT: OPPOSITION CANDIDATE: "IF THIS ELECTION WERE TO BE FREE AND FAIR, A BETTER MAN THAN I WOULD BE RUNNING" Classified By: AMBASSADOR THOMAS C. KRAJESKI, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND ( D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Opposition presidential candidate Faisal bin Shamlan told Ambassador on August 19 that he considers corruption and poverty to be the most important issues for this campaign, but regretted that President Saleh refused to debate him publicly. Asked if the elections would be largely free and fair, Shamlan responded that if that were going to be the case, "a much better man than I would be running." Shamlan said the opposition did not expect the Government to abide by election laws stipulating equal access to the media, but advised that "if we get even 10 percent of the time allotted to the ruling party, we'll be happy." END SUMMARY ¶2. (C) In his first meeting with the Joint Meeting Party's (JMP) presidential candidate, Ambassador said he was pleased to meet with Shamlan and other political actors at any time, but would not become engaged in a debate about Yemen's internal issues. Ambassador said he would readily and publicly discuss U.S.-Yemeni relations, but did not want the USG or the Embassy to become an election issue. The USG's most constructive contributions to the election are the local observers that will be trained by the U.S.-funded National Democratic Institute, who will be able to give the most accurate assessment of whether the voting was open and fair, not only for the presidential election, but for the local council polls as well. ¶3. (C) Asked for his assessment of the chances for a free and fair election, Shamlan said that if anyone expected the elections to be free and fair, "a much better man than I would be running." In a truly honest election, Shamlan asserted, he would win 65 to 70 percent of the vote. If the elections are "even 40 percent fair," then he would likely notwin, but the JMP could expect to win control of a majority of local councils, as ruling party officils have been warning could happen. Shamlan downlayed the significance of the local councils, hoever, because they do not have independent sourcs of funding and the politically appointed district governor's concurrence is needed for any counil decision to be enacted. ¶4. (C) Shamlan statd that corruption and the rising cost of living or average Yemenis would be the main issues for ths year's campaign, the first in which an actual challenger to the president is running. Yemeni ciizens are very worried about the future, he said because proven oil reserves will only last anoter 6-7 years, and Yemen derives 70% of its govermental budget from oil. "Nothing has been done to use oil money to create an effective non-oil econmy," he said, and yet the Government each year aks for supplemental spending authority from the arliament. Since 2001, this extra spending has mounted to more than USD four billion, "and yet we still have two million unemployed." Much of the money has been siphoned off through corruption, h said, "and while the President, Prime Minister,and Speaker of Parliament all talk about fightin corruption, no one has ever been brought to tria." ¶5. (C) Given the fact that 75 percent of Yeen's population is scattered in rural villages, ass media will be crucial to communicating his mssage to the people, Shamlan emphasized. Accordig to Shamlan, about half of Yemenis have access to non-Yemeni stations such as al-Jazeera, al-Hurra,al-Arabiya, and al-Mustaqila, while the other haf relies on the government-owned broadcast media. Jazeera and Arabiya have so far been reluctant to interview him, he claimed, because the Government has insisted that the interviews be taped in a studio, not broadcast live -- something both organizations are reluctant to do. Asked if he expected the Government to abide by the election law and the June agreement of principles between the JMP and the ruling party, which call for equal access to government-owned media, Shamlan responded, "Of course not." He claimed that "even if we get 10 percent of the time" allotted to the ruling party, he will be satisfied. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: Shamlan is fighting an uphill battle and he knows it. We believe that his estimation of his share of the vote in a clean election are seriously overblown, but not the belief that the JMP may sweep the local council elections -- a fear expressed even by ruling party members. Shamlan is not a member of either of the major parties that comprise the JMP, so it is not surprising that he would have little interest in the local council elections, but post continues to view those elections as an equally important measure of democratic progress as fair and open presidential voting. Post will provide assessments of local council election preparations via septels. Krajeski