ELECTIONS UPDATE: DATE ANNOUNCED, CAMPAIGN SET TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SANAA 002149

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/25/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM YM
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS UPDATE: DATE ANNOUNCED, CAMPAIGN SET TO
BEGIN

REF: A. SANAA 1743


B. SANAA 1914

Classified By: CDA NABEEL KHOURY, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (U) After weeks of difficult negotiations and opposition
threats to boycott the elections, preparations for Yemen's
September 20 presidential and local council elections appear
to be back on track. Over the last two weeks, Charge met
with the ruling party, the opposition coalition, and election
officials, encouraging all sides to participate fully in the
elections process and implement the June 18 agreement on free
and fair elections. Agreeing on the need for full
participation, the opposition submitted names to the election
commission for its representatives on the front-line
supervisory committees, thus overcoming what had been a
serious impediment to moving preparations forward. On July
25, Parliament and the Shura Council approved five
presidential candidates, including President Saleh and the
opposition coalition candidate, Faisal bin Shamlan. On July
26, the ROYG announced that elections would be held on
September 20.


2. (U) For the moment, the political atmosphere remains
calm, as all sides appear to be committed to moving the
process forward. Some issues remain to be resolved, however,
including a voter registration list riddled with fraudulent
entries and opposition access to government-owned media.
While the political climate is improving, international
elections experts fear that Yemen may not be technically
prepared to hold the September elections. A MEPI-sponsored
technical assessment scheduled to be completed in the next
several weeks should provide Post with a better idea of the
election commission's preparedness. A smooth elections
process will be particularly crucial for the local council
elections which, unlike the presidential contest, will likely
produce competitive races and therefore a greater risk for
violence, especially if the elections are not well-organized.
End Summary.

-------------- --
GPC-JMP Agreement: Problems with Implementation
-------------- --


3. (U) On June 18, the ruling General People's Congress
(GPC) party and the opposition coalition Joint Meeting Party
(JMP) signed a joint-statement of principles on conducting
free and fair elections (ref A). The parties agreed to: 1)
add two additional JMP members to the Supreme Commission for
Elections and Referendum (SCER); 2) divide the seats on
supervisory election committees between the GPC (54 percent)
and the JMP (46 percent); 3) create a legal team endorsed by
the SCER to examine the voter registration list; and 4) grant
equal access to government-controlled media outlets.

--------------
JMP: We Want Results
--------------


4. (C) During a July 16 meeting with Charge, JMP
representatives complained that the GPC "was not serious"
about implementing the agreement and was "playing games with
time." The largest coalition member, Islah, asserted that
not one provision of the agreement had been fully
implemented. While Parliament had amended the election law
to expand SCER membership, the two new JMP representatives
had not been given any responsibilities. He also noted that
a legal team had been formed to review the voter rolls, but
no progress had been made on removing the hundreds of
thousands of suspected fraudulent names, including duplicates
and children. The JMP also complained that President Saleh
was "using the official media as a weapon" against the
opposition. General Secretary for the Yemeni Socialist
Party, Yasin Noman, stressed that the JMP "was serious" about
participating in the elections but feared that the GPC would
try to "push us towards a boycott" by not implementing the
agreement. Until the agreement was implemented, he
continued, the JMP would not provide names to the SCER for
the supervisory committees.


5. (C) Charge encouraged the opposition to commit fully to

SANAA 00002149 002 OF 003


the elections process and find ways to resolve their
differences with the GPC, saying the Yemeni people deserved a
free and fair election and an open debate of real issues. He
suggested that they bring specific suggestions to the GPC on
how to implement the June 18 agreement. The JMP
representatives agreed that they wanted the following before
committing to full participation in the September elections:
1) A review of the 250,000 names from the voter registration
list SCER already referred to the courts under suspicion of
fraud, to determine that opposition voters were not
singled-out, 2) Equal access to government-owned media and a
published schedule of elections coverage, and 3) Assignment
of meaningful portfolios to the two new JMP SCER members.
They added that any support the Charge could provide in
mediating with the GPC and the government would be
appreciated.

--------------
GPC: We're Willing to Find Common Ground
--------------


6. (C) During a July 23 meeting with Deputy GPC Secretary
Abdul-Rahman al-Akwa, Charge relayed the opposition's points
and encouraged the GPC to work towards a political solution.
Akwa replied that the ruling party was generally in favor of
the proposed ideas, adding that the SCER had already granted
the two new JMP members the choice portfolios of Security and
External Relations. In principle, he explained, the GPC was
in favor of reviewing the voter registration list, but
stressed that it must be done within a "legal framework."
Akwa said the party supported equal media access, but
commented that the Yemeni people "were not ready" for a free
exchange of ideas in the media. Akwa ended up agreeing to
Charge's suggestion that a campaign media schedule be posted
by the SCER to demonstrate at the outset that all candidates
would have an equal chance to air their views and platforms.



7. (C) Lastly, Akwa complained that every time the GPC
strikes an agreement with the opposition, the JMP makes
additional demands, saying "they only want power, not
reform." Charge encouraged the GPC to keeping working on a
political solution, saying it was to Yemen's advantage to
have both parties fully commit to the democratic process.

--------------
SCER: Finding Creative Solutions
--------------


8. (C) On July 24, Charge met with SCER Chairman Khalid
al-Sharif to discuss the three point plan put forward by the
opposition. Sharif viewed the plan positively and said the
SCER would support the parties' efforts "within the legal
framework." He noted that the parties already seemed to be
moving the process forward, as the JMP had finally submitted
their names for the supervisory committees. Sharif explained
a "creative solution" SCER found to divide the chairmanship
of the committees between the parties, as both wanted to
dominate the major population centers. SCER wrote down all
the contested committees and alternated the chairmanship
between the parties one by one down the list. The other two
seats on the three-person committee were then given to the
party not receiving the chairmanship.


9. (C) Sharif agreed that the voter registration list was
flawed, but said the SCER had already referred 250,000 names
to the courts on criminal charges of fraud. Those names were
now with the local courts, he claimed, to investigate the
charges. Sharif added that the SCER was trying to clean up
the entire computerized voter registration list, which was
compiled with help from the UNDP and includes photos for all
applicants. Sharif inadvertently demonstrated how flawed the
voter lists are when he showed Charge an example of a list
compiled for a specific district. From the photos, Charge
could clearly see that a number of the registered voters were
under the legal voting age of eighteen. Charge informed
Sharif that international election experts from NDI, IFES,
and UNDP stood ready to assist the SCER and political party
representatives to review the list in a transparent manner.
(Comment: NDI, IFES, and UNDP agree that the voter
registration list cannot be fully "cleaned" of fraudulent
entries in time for the election. They do believe, however,
a representative sample could be reviewed in-time and would
be a good confidence building measure. End Comment).


SANAA 00002149 003 OF 003


--------------
Presidential Candidates Named
--------------


10. (U) On July 25, in a joint-session of Parliament, the
GPC-dominated House of Representatives and the Shura Council
voted to approve five presidential candidates from a list of
46 hopefuls. Each member was allowed to vote for one
candidate. Saleh led the voting with 237 votes out of 378,
with opposition candidate bin Shamlan receiving 51 votes.
The other three chosen were Ahmed al-Majidi (YSP),Fathi
al-Azab (Islah),and Yassin Abdu Saeed (the pro-government
National Council for Opposition) . All are relative unknowns
and will run as independent candidates, despite their party
affiliations (additional information on candidates will be
reported septel).

--------------
Comment
--------------


11. (C) The GPC and JMP's apparent commitment to
full-participation is a step forward for Yemen's second
presidential elections. For the elections process to
continue smoothly, both parties must remain engaged and the
SCER must stay flexible on resolving disputes. With a set
date and the issue of elections committees settled, the SCER
can now focus on preparing for election day. Unresolved
issues such as the flawed voter registration list and
continued government domination of television and radio
outlets, however, leaves open the possibility of continued
problems. Post will encourage all sides to use NDI, IFES,
and UNDP experts already in-country to find technically and
politically feasible solutions to the remaining roadblocks.


12. (C) It is now time for the parties to start focusing on
the campaigns. While Saleh will undoubtedly win a second
seven-year term, the opposition still has an opportunity to
use its national campaign to focus on real issues and
generate support for its local council candidates.
Unfortunately, neither party has so far demonstrated a clear
strategy for the local council elections (septel). Post will
continue to stress the importance of local council elections
for Yemen's democratic development and encourage the parties
to put the choice before the voters, rather than rely on
political manipulation come election day.
Khoury