JMP-GPC DEAL APPEARS IMMINENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 001743 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KMCA KMPI PINR YM SUBJECT: JMP-GPC DEAL APPEARS IMMINENT REF: A. SANAA 649 ¶B. SANAA 1354 ¶C. SANAA 1702 ¶D. SANAA 1820 Classified By: DCM Nabeel Khoury for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (U) On July 12, the opposition Yemeni Congregation for Reform party's (Islah) internet news service, "Sahwa.net," quoted Mohammed Qahtan -- Islahi Head of External Relations and spokesperson for the Joint Meetings Party opposition coalition (JMP) -- as saying that (year-long rocky) negotiations with the ruling General People's Congress political party (GPC),headed by President Saleh, looked "optimistic" and that the two sides now expect an agreement soon. ¶2. (C) Post sources have given some insight into the issues that the two sides were resolving. Robin Madrid, NDI-Yemen country director, notes that her sources have told her that the parties agreed to 48% opposition representation on supervisory-level commissions, which are the Supreme Council for Elections and Referenda's (SCER) first-line commissions for overseeing election complaints and voter registration. Saeed Yassin Noman, SYG of the Yemen Socialist Party (YSP), who added that the ROYG also agreed to add two additional JMP-picked commissioners to the seven-member SCER Main Commission, confirmed this. (Ref. A). ¶3. (C) Hamid al-Ahmar, son of powerful tribal leader Sheikh Abdullah al-Ahmar and prominent Islahi, confirmed separately that a settlement was "very near" since ROYG and GPC officials were "finally yielding" to JMP demands on SCER reform and electoral procedures. (Ref B). He also revealed that the JMP and GPC would create a formal review committee to look at disputed voter registration roles -- something that Islah had reportedly initially rejected . (Ref. C and septel). Abdul Malik al-Mutawakil of the JMP central committee from the Union of Popular Forces political party, added that the JMP "might" also nominate Saleh, but that in exchange they are demanding the 2009 Parliamentary elections be moved up and that they be conducted "freely and fairly." ¶4. (C) Comment: An agreement is imminent. Noticeably absent from what our sources revealed is what the JMP has agreed to give up in exchange for the ROYG's concessions. While not yet settled, this may well end with the JMP's nomination of Saleh and further compromises from the GPC that will likely include a Saleh assurance that he will implement the JMP's political reform agenda, a vaguely worded document touting generalities such as the "separation of the branches of government" and "Improving women's situation" in Yemen. (Ref. D). An agreement for a GPC-JMP nomination of Saleh, while not doing anything to advance democracy in Yemen, would quell fears of violence and riots in the run-up to the September election. Krajeski