JMP-GPC DEAL APPEARS IMMINENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 001743

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KMCA KMPI PINR YM
SUBJECT: JMP-GPC DEAL APPEARS IMMINENT

REF: A. SANAA 649

B. SANAA 1354

C. SANAA 1702

D. SANAA 1820

Classified By: DCM Nabeel Khoury for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (U) On July 12, the opposition Yemeni Congregation for
Reform party's (Islah) internet news service, "Sahwa.net,"
quoted Mohammed Qahtan -- Islahi Head of External Relations
and spokesperson for the Joint Meetings Party opposition
coalition (JMP) -- as saying that (year-long rocky)
negotiations with the ruling General People's Congress
political party (GPC),headed by President Saleh, looked
"optimistic" and that the two sides now expect an agreement
soon.


2. (C) Post sources have given some insight into the issues
that the two sides were resolving. Robin Madrid, NDI-Yemen
country director, notes that her sources have told her that
the parties agreed to 48% opposition representation on
supervisory-level commissions, which are the Supreme Council
for Elections and Referenda's (SCER) first-line commissions
for overseeing election complaints and voter registration.
Saeed Yassin Noman, SYG of the Yemen Socialist Party (YSP),
who added that the ROYG also agreed to add two additional
JMP-picked commissioners to the seven-member SCER Main
Commission, confirmed this. (Ref. A).


3. (C) Hamid al-Ahmar, son of powerful tribal leader Sheikh
Abdullah al-Ahmar and prominent Islahi, confirmed separately
that a settlement was "very near" since ROYG and GPC
officials were "finally yielding" to JMP demands on SCER
reform and electoral procedures. (Ref B). He also revealed
that the JMP and GPC would create a formal review committee
to look at disputed voter registration roles -- something
that Islah had reportedly initially rejected . (Ref. C and
septel). Abdul Malik al-Mutawakil of the JMP central
committee from the Union of Popular Forces political party,
added that the JMP "might" also nominate Saleh, but that in
exchange they are demanding the 2009 Parliamentary elections
be moved up and that they be conducted "freely and fairly."


4. (C) Comment: An agreement is imminent. Noticeably absent
from what our sources revealed is what the JMP has agreed to
give up in exchange for the ROYG's concessions. While not
yet settled, this may well end with the JMP's nomination of
Saleh and further compromises from the GPC that will likely
include a Saleh assurance that he will implement the JMP's
political reform agenda, a vaguely worded document touting
generalities such as the "separation of the branches of
government" and "Improving women's situation" in Yemen. (Ref.
D). An agreement for a GPC-JMP nomination of Saleh, while
not doing anything to advance democracy in Yemen, would quell
fears of violence and riots in the run-up to the September
election.
Krajeski