ITALY'S NORTHERN LEAGUE: THE CHALLENGE OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 000997

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV IT ITALIAN POLITICS
SUBJECT: ITALY'S NORTHERN LEAGUE: THE CHALLENGE OF
DEVOLUTION AND BOSSI'S HEALTH

REF: A. ROME 0460

B. 05 ROME 3816

C. ROME 0725

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor David D. Pearce for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Italy's Northern League faces two strategic
challenges in the short and the long term: what to do if the
pro-devolution referendum fails this summer and how to
replace the party's founder and unquestioned leader Umberto
Bossi, who is still weak after a devastating stroke two years
ago. An internal split between pragmatists and "true
believers" will complicate the process. Interviews with
eight party leaders and party observers revealed no consensus
for the future of the "Lega" in Bossi's absence. END SUMMARY.

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BOSSI IS THE LEGA'S UNCHALLENGED LEADER
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2. (C) Poloff asked a group of young Northern League (Lega)
leaders in the northern Lega stronghold of Lombardy who could
eventually replace party founder and leader Umberto Bossi
(64),whose health remains weak after a devastating stroke
two years ago. Daniele Belotti, Regional Counselor for the
Lega and self-described "Legista at heart," said he is sure
that Bossi would take care of that problem for the party and
not leave them without a leader. Belotti,
Europarliamentarian Matteo Salvini and Provincial Counselor
Paolo Grimoldi then explained to Milan Acting Pol/Econ Chief,
Poloff and Milan Pol FSN that a true "Leghista" sees the
party and Umberto Bossi as one in the same. They described
with reverence how he built the party from scratch and how he
always knew where to guide the party. They refused to
speculate about a Bossi successor.


3. (C) The next day, Regional Council Delegation Leader for
the Lega Massimo Zanello told Poloff that the issue of who
succeeds Bossi is a real problem for the Lega. Zanello, who
eschews wearing the Lega's trademark green tie or
handkerchief, calls himself a Lega pragmatist and "not a true
Leghista" in the eyes of those who call themselves Leghistas
at heart. He told Poloff that Bossi remains the undisputed
leader and symbol of the Lega. He also called Bossi a
calculating pragmatist with undisputed moral authority among
the Lega's emotional base. Zanello compared Bossi to former
U.S. President Richard Nixon, saying that only Nixon among
American political leaders had sufficient anti-communist
credentials to open a pragmatic dialogue with China. In
Zanello's view, only Bossi could have forged a deal with PM
Berlusconi without being viewed has having sold out the party
to the establishment. He continued that Bossi could even
form an alliance with the center-left that would be
acceptable to the base. Looking forward, Zanello said that
Bossi's health is weak and that there are no emerging leaders
who combine undisputed credibility with the base and
pragmatism. He predicted the party would split among
pragmatists and fundamentalists if Bossi's health fails
completely.


4. (C) Journalists Guido Passalacqua and Carlo Brambilla said
that Bossi traditionally controlled every aspect of the
Lega's direction and identity. Like Zanello and the young
Lega leaders, they said there is no clear second in command
even if Bossi had technically anointed Lega Secretary
Giancarlo Giorgetti as his successor during the last party
congress five years earlier. Both Passalacqua and Brambilla
agreed that Giorgetti had not shown sufficient charisma to
take over from Bossi. Lega Spokesperson Niccoletta Maggi
told Poloff that Varese Provincial President Marco Reguzzoni
was an upcoming leader and a recent edition of "Panorama"
confirmed that. Ex-Minister of reform Roberto Calderoli is
damaged goods as a result of the scandal involving his
wearing t-shirts emblazoned with cartoons of the Prophet
Mohammed (REF A). According to the two journalists, Minister
of Labor Maroni is the brightest leader in the Lega, but they
echoed comments by Zanello that Maroni has not worked to
establish a strong base of support within the party. Both
journalists agreed that Bossi's wife wields tremendous
influence, especially now that Bossi spends more time at
home, and they also said Bossi would like to see his son,
Renzo, eventually take the realm.


5. (C) Bossi's health is failing and he is losing touch with
the people, according to the journalists and Zanello. The
journalists explained how Bossi fell asleep during a meeting
with the Lega's inner circle to decide the party's candidate
list for parliament. More telling, they said he failed to
show at a party meeting the next day to formally approve the
list, and no one felt comfortable enough to develop a
rank-ordered list in Bossi's absence so they listed potential
candidates alphabetically. Zanello said Bossi is losing
contact with the people given his health limitations and is
beginning to rely on a very reduced circle of advisers.
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DEVOLUTION IS THE LEGA'S MAIN TARGET
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6. (C) Without hesitation, Belotti told Poloff that the dream
of every true Leghista is eventual secession from Italy. He
described that as the final goal of a long process that
begins with Devolution, a limited form of federalism up for
referendum this summer (REF B). Lega adviser Germano Draghi
told Poloff he thinks the Lega would leave the coalition with
Berlusconi if the referendum fails, especially if it appears
that Bossi's center-right allies only provided lukewarm
support for the referendum. The two journalists said Bossi's
desire to stay in the government means he would only leave
the coalition if the center-right loses the April 9-10
elections and the devolution referendum fails.

7. (C) In an interview with "Panorama," Bossi hinted at his
thinking on the issue. He said he is with Berlusconi because
there is no chance for reform without him. For Bossi, reform
means Devolution. He expressed confidence the center-right
would win but noted the Lega would be free to do what it
wants if the coalition loses in April. Bossi calls the
referendum a first step toward "fiscal federalisim." The
journalists, Maggi and Zanello all agreed that Bossi would
look for a way to stay in the coalition if the Lega is part
of the government and the referendum fails. It remains very
unclear whether the referendum will pass of not.

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A NOTE ON LEGA POLICIES
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8. (C) In September, Maggi told Poloff that the Lega has been
"good and quiet for five years because they wanted
Devolution." Though Bossi and the Lega have taken
anti-immigration stances, positions against gay civil-unions
and other conservative goals, the analysts agreed that Bossi
has subordinated all other goals to achieving Devolution.
Maggi said the Lega would "raise the tone" if the
center-right loses, but that it would continue to be a loyal
government ally as long as it sees that as the best path to
Devolution.


9. (C) Draghi, who is one of two foreign policy advisers to
the Lega, said the Lega is not interested in foreign policy.
He noted that Bossi saw the Lega's popularity implode after
his visit to Belgrade during the Kosovo bombings and that
Bossi realized "foreign policy is beyond his area of
expertise" and risks votes. Draghi continued that the Lega
is a nationalist party of sorts and was not particularly
sympathetic to Italian troop deployments in Iraq, but that he
was willing support his coalition allies. He said the Lega's
only foreign policy principle is the support of separatist
movements, like the Basques and Catalans in Spain.

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CALDEROLI'S T-SHIRT FLAP
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10. (C) Opinions on Calderoli's t-shirt scandal were mixed.
The two journalists said it had damaged Calderoli as a
national figure but that many in the Lega base supported him.
Most of Milan's pollsters (REF C) said it had had little
affect on support for the Lega, even if one showed it had
caused some supporters to migrate to Forza Italia. The
scandal typifies the split inside the Lega between true
believers and pragmatists. The true believers told Poloff
that nobody had publicly criticized the point Calderoli was
making about free speech and appeared supportive of Celdaroli
as they talked ominously about the "Muslimization of Europe."
Zanello called Calderoli's actions ridiculous and
irresponsible. In his "Panarama" interview, Bossi simply
said he would not have done it himself.

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UNITED AGAINST A NEW CENTER
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11. (C) Several interlocutors noted Bossi's close
relationship with Democrats of the Left (DS) President
Massimo D'Alema, despite the obvious ideological differences.
They said the Lega and DS had flirted previously with the
idea of a coalition in Lombardy and did not preclude a future
coalition. Many also said the DS and Lega have a common
concern with the recreation of a new center party, which
could exclude both of them from government.

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COMMENT
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12. (C) COMMENT: Bossi is the founder, heart and mind of the
Lega. His poor health presents a classic succession problem.
The Northern League will hold a party congress next November
at which Bossi will indicate his successor, even if he will
likely remain the party's true leader as long as his health
permits. In any case, a clash between true believers and
pragmatists seems inevitable in his absence. The outcome of
Italy's April 9-10 elections will determine tactical
alliances, but the Lega faces longer term challenges. END
COMMENT.


13. (U) This cable was drafted jointly with AmConGen Milan.
SPOGLI