ITALIANS OPEN TO EU VISA BAN AGAINST LUKASHENKA,

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 000956 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2016 TAGS: PREL PHUM CVIS EUN BO IT SUBJECT: ITALIANS OPEN TO EU VISA BAN AGAINST LUKASHENKA, BUT WORRY ABOUT UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES REF: STATE 46976 Classified By: Classified by David D. Pearce, Political Minister Counse lor, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. On March 27, Poloff met with Antonino Cascio of the Eastern European Department of the Italian MFA to deliver reftel points. Cascio said the MFA is concerned that an extended visa ban, including a ban on Lukashenka, could prove to be ineffective and could backfire if Lukashenka decides to crack down further on the opposition. Cascio said Italy would not be opposed in principle to an expanded EU visa ban list that would include Lukashenka, but would wait to consult with other EU allies before making a final decision. End Summary. ¶2. (C) On March 27 Poloff delivered reftel points to Cascio and asked for Italian support in the EU to implement an extended visa ban, including a ban on Lukashenka and his family. Cascio stated that Italy had no opposition in principle to the expansion of the visa ban list but questioned whether it would produce any tangible results. Cascio's reservations were fourfold: even though the election was deplored by the EU and OSCE, Lukashenka probably does, in fact, enjoy the support of the majority of the Belarussian public; the opposition has not developed to the point where it can effectively challenge Lukashenka in the event international pressure begins to erode his grip on power; Italy does not want to lose contact with or lose the support of the Belarussian people; and the ban is likely to be ineffective against a group of people who have shown no interest in traveling to the EU. Nevertheless, Cascio stated that Italy wanted to send an important signal to the GOB that its behavior during the elections was unacceptable. Cascio told Poloff that the GOI would debate the pros and cons of a visa ban prior to the EU working group discussions in Brussels on March 30. ¶3. (C) Poloff urged Cascio to take a determined line against Lukashenka. He noted that repression does not equate to stability and the opposition had been denied the opportunity to give the public a viable alternative. The US was also committed to maintaining robust contact with the opposition, with the Belarussian people, and to a certain extent, with the GOB. The visa ban, however, would send a strong signal that the international community does not tolerate Lukashenka's undemocratic behavior, would show support for the democratic opposition, and would erode support for Lukashenka among those who have joined him for purely personal gain. ¶4. (C) On March 28 PolMinCouns spoke with PM Berlusconi's deputy diplomatic advisor Francesco Talo to lobby in favor of the expanded restrictions. He said a visa ban that did not include Lukashenka would not be taken seriously. As for public support, Pol M/C reinforced poloff's points and noted that Hafiz al-Asad of Syria and Saddam Hussein in Iraq had also enjoyed impressive electoral majorities, but this did not equate to a legitimate popular mandates. Talo subsequently forwarded a copy of the EU declaration on Belarus, noting that some restrictive measures, including against Lukashenka, were pending. Talo added that Italy's official position was still under consideration but including Lukashenka on the visa ban list was a strong possibility. ¶5. (C) A follow-up discussion with Cascio on March 29 confirmed that the MFA had agreed that restrictive measures that did not include Lukashenka would not be effective. At the very least, Italy would not oppose such a measure if it were recommended by the EU working group on March 30. ¶6. (C) Comment. The GOI recognizes that a Belarus under Lukashenka is not in the interests of Italy or the EU. We have urged them to recognize that a common US-EU approach in denying him credibility after the most recent sham elections is the first step in dealing with Europe's last dictator. SPOGLI