ITALIAN CENTER LEFT OFFICIAL SAYS NATO ESSSENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 000768

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2016
TAGS: PGOV ECON PREL IZ IT NATO ITALIAN POLITICS ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ITALIAN CENTER LEFT OFFICIAL SAYS NATO ESSSENTIAL

REF: A. ROME 724

B. ROME 584

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor David D. Pearce for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Democrats of the Left Member of Parliament
and former U/S in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Umberto
Ranieri told Pol M/C that his party considers NATO an
essential pillar of international security. He assured us
that far left radicals would not make foreign policy in a
future center-left government. Pol M/C raised the importance
of stability in Iraq to both our nations' security interests
and stressed the need for a potential center-left government
to coordinate any actions closely with the Iraqi government
and the U.S. Ranieri said that "we agree with the government
on the timing of the withdrawal of troops from Iraq" and on
the need to prioritize the continued stabilization of Iraq.
Asserting that PM Berlusconi will lose the April 9-10
elections because of Italy's poor economic performance,
Ranieri said the center-left's priority would be to spur
economic growth. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Pol M/C and Poloff met March 8 with Democrats of the
Left (DS) Member of Parliament and former U/S in the Ministry
of Foreign Affairs Umberto Ranieri. Ranieri is also the
former head of the DS International Affairs office and likely
to figure prominently in the foreign policy apparatus of any
future center-left government.

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NATO AS PILLAR OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
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3. (C) Pol M/C expressed concern that the center left's
coalition program emphasizes the centrality of Italy's
relationship with the EU at the apparent expense of the
Transatlantic Alliance. Ranieri responded that there is no
doubt that NATO is an essential pillar of international
security and called the Euro-Atlantic alliance fundamental.
He said NATO's purpose might have been questioned in 1989,
immediately after the fall of communism, but that its
centrality is again unquestionable. He cited NATO's
cooperation agreements with Russia as a positive development
and called NATO's participation in Afghanistan a "good idea."
However, in the context of Afghanistan, he went on to say
that the Alliance must be careful not to lose its roots in
the transatlantic region with multiple missions outside its
core competency.


4. (C) Ranieri said some members of the center-left have the
wrong position on NATO and cooperation with the U.S. He
continued that in a CL government, far left radicals
"Oliviero Diliberto and even Fausto Bertinotti would not make
foreign policy." Noting that the center-right has had to
contend with the Northern League's extreme positions on some
foreign policy issues, Ranieri expressed confidence the
center-left could do the same with its fringe elements. He
said the core of the center-left is moderate and responsible.

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CL AGREES WITH THE GOVERNMENT ON IRAQ TROOP WITHDRAWALS
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5. (C) Pol M/C raised the importance of stability in Iraq to
both our nations' security interests and stressed the need
for a potential center-left government to coordinate closely
any actions with the Iraqi government and the U.S. Ranieri
said that "we agree with the government on the timing of the
withdrawal of troops from Iraq" and on the need to prioritize
the continued stabilization of Iraq.

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DOMESTIC POLICY: SPURRING ECONOMIC GROWTH
--------------


6. (SBU) Ranieri predicted the CL would win the April 9-10
elections mostly because PM Berlusconi had failed to deliver
economic growth, jobs in Southern Italy, and a significant
reduction in the tax burden. Admitting that Berlusconi had
faced a challenging period with an economic slowdown
throughout Europe and the effects of 9/11, Ranieri said a
future CL government would prioritize the reversal of Italy's
slow growth. Ranieri said that Bank of Italy Governor
Draghi's recent speech outlining Italy's economic problems is
in perfect harmony with the CL's analysis. A Prodi-led
government's highest priority would be to increase investment
and to stimulate economic growth. The CL will also reduce
social security contributions both for employers and workers
by a total of Euro 10 billion annually. When asked, he could
not explain how the CL would make up for the lost revenue,
except to say that the social security tax cuts would be
phased in gradually. Ranieri said the CL's other priority
would be to support investment in research and to search for
ways for Italian firms to capitalize on research. Ranieri
said the CL would build on Berlusconi's pension, labor and
education reforms, which he judged generally positive.


7. (C) COMMENT: Ranieri was more upbeat about the importance
of the Transatlantic Alliance than DS President Massimo
D'Alema (REF A) and the Union program plan itself, which
never mentions the word NATO (REF B). Nevertheless, we have
raised the importance of NATO in all our meetings with CL
leaders and have generally received positive feedback. Our
assessment is that there are potentially influential
supporters of NATO within the CL with whom we can work to
ensure its continuing primacy in Italian security policy.
But while a center-left government may not tamper excessively
with existing NATO commitments, we suspect they will be more
difficult to bring along on new ones. We are also somewhat
skeptical about Ranieri's assessment that the likes of
Bertinotti and Diliberto will focus more on economic and
social policy than foreign affairs. Whether the extremists
allow themselves to be removed from foreign policy will
likely depend on what their election numbers look like, and
how vital they see themselves to the viability of any
center-left governing coalition. END COMMENT.
SPOGLI


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2006ROME00768 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL