ITALY: POLLSTERS GIVE EDGE TO PRODI BUT DON'T

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 000725 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2016 TAGS: PGOV IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS SUBJECT: ITALY: POLLSTERS GIVE EDGE TO PRODI BUT DON'T DISCOUNT BERLUSCONI REF: A. ROME 141 ¶B. ROME 466 ¶C. ROME 276 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor David D. Pearce for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: A collection of five Milan-based pollsters agreed that PM Berlusconi's effective campaign had closed much of the gap with opposition leader Romano Prodi, even if they were split over whether this momentum would carry Berlusconi to victory on election day. Recent polls give Prodi a lead ranging from one to five percentage points. Berlusconi's hope is pinned on remotivating his base of support, disillusioned by five years of a stagnant economy. In fact, Italy's poor economy is Berlusconi's chief handicap and foreign policy appears to count little. Many Italian voters remain undecided how they will vote, but this includes many who will simply not vote and others who know which coalition they plan to support but not which party within that coalition. This makes it difficult to predict what a future government would look like regardless who wins, but especially if the center left forms the next government. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) Poloff and Milan's Acting Pol/Econ chief met March 2-3 with five Milan-based polling organizations. In separate meetings, three predicted a very close victory for center-left Union coalition candidate Romano Prodi, and two gave the advantage to Prodi but said that PM Berlusconi's well-focused campaign had made the race a dead heat. All agreed that Berlusconi was running a very effective campaign and that Prodi's lackluster performance and divided coalition had hurt him. The consensus view is that longer term political, social and especially economic trends were working against Berlusconi. -------------- WHAT DO THE POLLS ACTUALLY SAY? -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Late February and early March polls show the center-left's (CL) lead over the center-right (CR) ranging from one percentage point to five percentage points. The Berlusconi-financed Euromedia poll conducted on February 24 shows the one percentage point difference. The most recently published poll, conducted by the relatively bipartisan Eurisko gives the CL a 51.4 percent to 46.4 percent lead in the Chamber of Deputies and a 50.5 percent to 47.0 percent lead in the Senate. (Note: As a result of electoral reform in late 2005 (REF A, B),votes are tabulated differently in the Chamber and the Senate, which has resulted in parties running in slightly different groupings in the two chambers. This explains the different results. End Note.) ¶4. (C) Paolo Natale, lead pollster for Polimetro, conducted a survey on March 1. His still unpublished survey asked respondents to predict who they thought would win the elections. The results in percent were: CL (45.2),CR (34.5),uncertain (20.3). This is a slight improvement for the CL compared to late February results but much lower than results from polls conducted last year. When asked March 1 if they planned to vote CL or CR, the results were: CL (43.6),CR (35.8),uncertain (20.6). The trend mirrors that shown for the previous question. Given Italy's recent electoral reform, however, this is no longer the relevant question since electors do not vote for the coalition but for an individual political parties (REF B). This large "branding gap" between the CL and the CR is one of the reasons why Berlusconi changed the electoral law. ¶5. (C) Polimetro also asked voters to indicate for which party they would vote in the Chamber and in the Senate, which is the actual decision voters will face on election day. Of those expressing a preference, the CL leads the CR by 51.1 percent to 47.9 percent in the Chamber and by 50.9 percent to 47.8 percent in the Senate. The trend shows that the CR gained substantial territory through mid-February but that the race more-or-less stabilized in the last two weeks of February. Polimetro shows 34.8 percent of potential electors remain undecided and predicts that roughly half of those will abstain on election day. It predicts the majority of the remaining lean toward the CL. Other polls show undecideds representing between 25 and 30 percent of the electorate. -------------- PREDICTIONS -------------- ¶6. (C) Euromedia's Alessandra Ghisleri was the most positive regarding the CR's chances for victory. She admitted that Berlusconi still trailed but said momentum favored the CR. She also reminded Poloff that governments are formed in parliament and not at the ballot box and said that the binds that hold together a coalition disappear after the election passes. She predicted that a split result, one in which the Chamber and Senate each go to different coalitions, favors Berlusconi forming the next government (REF A). Giacomo Sani, whose most recent results give the CL a scant 2 percentage point advantage, argued that the race is too close to call and concurred that momentum favors Berlusconi. The question is whether that momentum is sufficient to bring him the votes he needs. ¶7. (C) Stefano Draghi, who is also a Senate candidate for the Democrats of the Left (DS),was most strident in his prediction of a CL victory. He cited long-term trends and dissatisfaction with the economy as insurmountable barriers for Berlusconi's admittedly superior campaign to overcome, but provided no data to support his claim. Nicola Piepoli, who works for the Council of Ministers but not for Berlusconi the candidate, provided similar reasons to predict a CL victory. Forza Italia's Lazio party coordinator who works closely with Piepoli in Palazzo Chigi told Poloff that Piepoli is a guru with an excellent instinct for Italian politics. Polimetro uses a mathematical model that combines the results of stated intentions to vote, historical comparisons of voting intentions with actual results, and perceptions of general voter sympathy to forecast results. Based on Polimetro's model, Natale predicted the CL would win in both houses. With the majority premium in the Chamber, the CL would have a comfortable advantage of 340 to 277 seats. He also predicted the CL would win in the Senate, despite probable CR victories in the important swing states of Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lazio and Puglia. The CL would win the remaining swing state, Piedmont. Given his prediction that the CL would win big in Toscany and Emilia Romagna, he forecasts the CL would have a 160 to 149 seat advantage in the Senate. His results do not include the results for members of parliament voted abroad or the seven Senators for life. ¶8. (SBU) Twelve members of the Chamber and six members in the Senate will be voted by Italians abroad (REF B). The pollsters said they have no idea what to expect since this is the first time such elections will be held. However, the consensus is that results will favor the CR, who gave Italians abroad the right to vote. Some explained that the fact most Italians abroad emigrated from Southern Italy also favors the CR. Italy's seven Senators for life generally favor the CL. -------------- -------------- CAMPAIGN FOR THE UNDECIDED VOTER/MOTIVATING THE BASE -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) Polls show that between 25 and 35 percent of Italian voters remain undecided. At least half will abstain and the other four pollsters shared Natale's view that the majority of the remainder leans to the left. Draghi pointed out that many undecided voters know if they plan to vote CL or CR but are unsure which party within the coalition they will support. He claimed the strong preference expressed for the CL, in general, augurs well for Prodi's coalition. Piepoli explained that the Italian voter, who historically chose between a large Communist party and the Christian Democrast is generally more sympathetic to the left than to the right. He said a major reason Berlusconi defeated Francesco Rutelli in 2001 was because Berlusconi had induced the Northern League to rejoin his coalition whereas Rutelli did not attract the Communist Renewal (RC) party. This year, Prodi has reached out to the far corners of the left for support and does not face that problem. Draghi also noted that the "political trend" has been working against Berlusconi and cited a poor economy as a primary factor. ¶10. (C) The five pollsters generally agreed that Berlusconi was running a better campaign than Prodi, who is hampered by a divided coalition and poor communication skills. They said Berlusconi is fighting to motivate his base of support, which includes many voters disillusioned by Italy's poor economic performance over the past five years. Berlusconi's campaign slogans rhetorically ask Italians if they want more illegal immigration, higher taxes, communists and no-globals in the government and a return to instability. With his visit to Washington, Berlusconi has trumpeted his important role on the world stage versus Italian Communist Party (PdCI) leader Oliviero Diliberto's support for Hamas and burning of the U.S. and Israeli flag. The pollsters say Berlusconi is trying to scare the disillusioned voter into returning to the voting booth instead of staying home. Ghisleri and Sani thought this might work. The others agreed it was a good tactic, but insufficient to win. -------------- WHAT MOTIVATES THE ITALIAN VOTER -------------- ¶11. (C) Draghi and Ghisleri distinguished the Northern and Southern voters. They said the Northern voter is generally more ideological and faithful to the party tradition. Southern Italy is still heavily influenced by clientelism, where electoral "tour operators" frequently deliver votes to one or another party based on perceived benefits. This type of voter is more susceptible to the bandwagon effect since the goal is to deliver votes to the winner who will be able to provide the most benefit. Clemente Mastella's UDEUR Party, which has its base in Campagna is the paramount example. ¶12. (C) More concretely, all the pollsters agreed that many Italians are proud of Italy's new role on the world stage, but that foreign policy has little to no effect on the voter. Natale said the CL is winning because of concern for the economy, the precarious nature of the job market and the energy crisis. Piepoli cited a deep-seated jealousy against Berlusconi as a strong motivation for CL voters. Many Catholic voters are concerned about values and vote for parties favored by the Vatican. Ghiseli said many DS voters have abandoned the DS because of the BNL banking scandal, but they probably remained within the CL coalition. The pollsters were divided on whether the flap over former Minister Calderoli's printing of t-shirts emblazoned with the controversial comics of the Prophet Mohammed had affected voter preferences. Natale, however, showed that support for the Northern League had dropped from 4.3 to 3.6 percent since the event went public. He says a corresponding increase in support for Forza Italia means those voters did not leave the CR. -------------- INSIDE THE CENTER LEFT -------------- ¶13. (C) The relative strength of the parties inside the two coalitions will determine the importance of the CL's more radical wing in a potential future government. Whereas some polls had given RC eight percent of the vote, Polimetro and Euromedia show it has slipped to below seven percent. PdCI, the Greens, UDEUR, the Rose in the Fist and di Pietro's Values Party also face possible exclusion from parliament if they do not overcome the two percent hurdle for entering parliament. Ghiseli cited evidence that many voters who are disillusioned with the DS have migrated to the Rose in the Fist, a combination of Radicals and a Socialist splinter group. In any case, with so many CL voters still undecided, it remains unclear who among the small parties would have influence in a possible Union government. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶14. (C) COMMENT: With national elections only five weeks away, the race has tightened considerably. Prodi still holds the edge, but momentum appears to be in Berlusconi's favor, and a large number of voters remain undecided. Even more unpredictable is what a CL government would look like if it were to win. END COMMENT. ¶15. (U) This cable was coordinated with ConGen Milan. SPOGLI