ITALY: AN SPOKESPERSON SEES CENTER-RIGHT CLOSING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 000550 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2016 TAGS: PGOV IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS SUBJECT: ITALY: AN SPOKESPERSON SEES CENTER-RIGHT CLOSING ELECTORAL GAP Classified By: Ambassador Ronald P. Spogli for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The Ambassador met February 15 with National Alliance (AN) Party Spokesperson Andrea Ronchi. Ronchi told the Ambassador he was optimistic about the center-right's electoral chances and claimed they are only trailing the center-left by one or two percentage points. Ronchi said AN was firmly against including extreme elements of the right in the coalition and agreed that Calderoli's printing of t-shirts with cartoons offensive to Muslims was reprehensible. END SUMMARY. -------------- CENTER-RIGHT GAINING FAST -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The Ambassador met February 15 with National Alliance (AN) Party Spokesperson and Gianfranco Fini confidant Andrea Ronchi. Ronchi was accompanied by Paolo Dionisi, one of PM Berlusconi's Diplomatic Advisers. The Ambassador was accompanied by POL M/C and Poloff. Ronchi was optimistic about the center-right's electoral chances and eager to show that AN is a modern center-right party. The April 9 elections dominated the discussion. ¶3. (C) Ronchi told the Ambassador he was optimistic about the center-right's electoral chances and claimed they are only trailing the center-left by one or two percentage points, compared to an eight-point deficit in September 2005. He said the center-left had been overly optimistic of a victory because of its previously large advantage and had played "not to lose." He also said that the government had previously done a poor job communicating its successes and that Berlusconi's recent media blitz (REF A) had raised awareness of the center-right's accomplishments. He said the public had also become increasingly aware of the dangers presented by the center-left and cited Democrats of the Left (DS) President D'Alema's statement comparing the U.S. usage of white phosphorous with suicide bombers attacking Italian troops in Iraq. ¶4. (C) In the race for the Senate, Ronchi said Lazio, Puglia and Piedmont are the key swing states. He said trends were positive for the center-right in Puglia as people are becoming aware of what the government has done over the past five years. He thought the successful Olympic Games would give the center-right a boost in Piedmont. On Lazio, he was more sanguine because of the presence of the highly popular Mayor of Rome, Walter Veltroni. However, he said that current Agriculture Minister Gianni Alemano's potential candidacy for mayor has Veltroni concerned. -------------- THE NATIONAL ALLIANCE AND FINI -------------- ¶5. (C) The Ambassador asked Ronchi to explain the apparent contradiction in polls which consistently show Fini to be the center-right's most popular politician while Forza Italia (FI) consistently outpolls AN. Describing it as something of a mystery, Ronchi continued that FI inherited much of the Christian Democrat Party from the First Italian Republic, including much of its machinery and its voters. He said, nevertheless, that Fini brings votes to the broader coalition. On the recent debate over PM Berlusconi's overtures to Alessandra Mussolini and other more extreme elements, Ronchi said that Fini has been consistent and clear that no extreme rightists can take part in the government--that it is better to lose votes than bring anti-democratic forces into the government. Ronchi explained that AN has become a more moderate party and said that according to internal polls, 60 percent of AN members consider themselves center-right versus 40 percent who see themselves as a party of the right. The Ambassador told Ronchi that we were surprised by a recent demonstration of AN members in front of the U.S. Embassy in which the protesters called for clarity in the Calipari case. Ronchi said that was not indicative of AN attitudes toward the U.S. and that Fini had been unaware of the event until after it happened. (Note: Ronchi subsequently told Poloff that Fini had "pulled the hair" of the members of the AN youth wing who had organized the event. End Note.) -------------- A UNIFIED CENTER-RIGHT PARTY -------------- ¶6. (C) When asked about the possibility of one coalition winning the Chamber and another winning the Senate (Ref B), Ronchi expressed confidence that the center-right would win both. Nevertheless, he said that such a result would be disastrous and would put the bipolar system at risk. In his view, there are parties hoping to engineer the recreation of a strong center, something that would marginalize both the AN and the DS. However, Ronchi predicted that the most likely result of divided chambers would be a technical government that would accomplish two or three tasks and call for new elections. Ronchi said that if the center-right would lose, however, that there would be a stronger push for a unified party of the center-right. -------------- CALDEROLI -------------- ¶7. (C) Ronchi fully agreed with the Ambassador that Minister of Reform Roberto Calderoli's decision to print t-shirts featuring the offensive Danish cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed had been irresponsible. He said there was latent and growing racism that the Northern League is trying to encourage and exploit. Ronchi called this dangerous and something that responsible politicians must attempt to fight. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Ronchi was highly optimistic about the center-right's electoral chances, a reflection of recent gains by Berlusconi and his coalition. Most pollsters place the center-left's lead at around 4 percentage points, though we have seen polls that show a statistical deadheat. Daisy President Francesco Rutelli said it well, when he recently told the Ambassador that "With the elections only six weeks away, we still have time to lose, if we work at it." END COMMENT. SPOGLI