D'ALEMA TO CODEL WEXLER: MIDDLE EAST NEEDS NEW PUSH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 003272

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2016
TAGS: AF IR IS IZ LE NATO PGOV PREL SY XF IT
SUBJECT: D'ALEMA TO CODEL WEXLER: MIDDLE EAST NEEDS NEW PUSH

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Classified By: AMBASSADOR RONALD P. SPOGLI, FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d)


1. (C) Summary. Foreign Minister D'Alema told visiting
Congressman Wexler that the international community must
press Israelis and Palestinians to kick start a new phase in
peace negotiations, beginning with a genuine cease-fire and
exchange of prisoners. He speculated that NATO could be a
possible security guarantor of a Middle East settlement.
D'Alema said the international community should prioritize
its goals in the Middle East and the result may not always
mean more troops on the ground. Asked his views on reaching
out to Iran and Syria, the FM felt it would be a mistake to
isolate Iran but he had little enthusiasm about contact with
Syria. On Turkey, D'Alema reiterated Italy's support for
Ankara's EU accession but asked for USG help in pushing
Cyprus to be more flexible. Wexler rounded out his visit by
meeting leaders of the Jewish and Muslim communities, members
of the Italian Parliament, and the media. End Summary.

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(C) We need to "Move" on the Middle East
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2. (C) D'Alema kicked off a meeting with Wexler and the
Ambassador by underscoring the importance of "moving" at this
critical time on an agreement toward Middle East peace. We
need direct negotiations among the parties, he said, and it
has to begin with agreement of people movement and access.
The Palestinian leadership and Israeli government are weak,
and the international community must push both sides to the
negotiating table because they will not talk to one another
voluntarily. D'Alema warned that the gradual nature of
previous peace processes is not the answer. We need a
completely new approach beginning with a commitment to stop
the violence, releasing prisoners, and maintaining a genuine
cease-fire.


3. (C) D'Alema pointed out that not solving the Palestinian
issue only serves to destabilize moderate regimes in the
region ("our friends") because fundamentalists use the
impasse as an excuse to stoke more violence. The
Israeli-Palestinian issue is a central issue for Sunnis in
the region -- we cannot engage them on anything without
achieving something on the peace issue. Moreover, he
underscored that, with 17 million Muslims in Europe, Middle
East peace is a serious security issue for Europeans. He
understood that both sides would need to take risks -- in
particular Israel, which fears the risk of more terrorist
attacks. D'Alema said he told Israeli Foreign Minister Livni
that the risk of terror is only short-term. If we do nothing
because of the risk, he told her, imagine what could happen
in the future -- today we have Hamas, but tomorrow we will
have al-Qaida.


4. (C) D'Alema advanced several broad ideas on how to
kickstart this process. Perhaps, he said, solving the
question of Jerusalem could be the key. Perhaps a
multinational force could help guarantee security and deter
extremists on both sides. D'Alema speculated that NATO could
serve in this role or perhaps we could create a Partnership
for Peace with Israel and friendly Sunni Arabs in the region.
The EU could do its part by offering access to the EU market
as an incentive toward regional integration. Wexler
questioned the wisdom of NATO involvement in the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict at his dinner with center-left
parliamentary leaders. Former PM and current President of
the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Lamberto Dini
dismissed D'Alema's idea as a trial balloon, saying D'Alema
must have been thinking out loud.


5. (C) On the mechanics of negotiations, D'Alema said that
talks should occur between Abu Mazin, as President of the
Palestinian Authority, and the Israelis. There is no real
Palestinian "government" because there is no Palestinian
state. Only a new government with Hamas as a minority and a
genuine commitment to non-violence can win sufficient
international credibility to support negotiations.


6. (C) In a separate meeting, former Foreign Minister (and
Deputy Prime Minister) Gianfranco Fini told Wexler that
Italy's political opposition is also seized with the
Israeli-Palestinian issue. Fini -- head of the National

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Alliance party, the second largest in opposition -- warned
that some European "friends" still believe that Israel's
security is its own business. In marked contrast to D'Alema,
Fini noted it was important to move forward but warned that
Tel Aviv should be careful not to yield too much, given its
current political weakness. The Palestinians believe that
Israel can be militarily defeated, encouraged by the Lebanon
example. Muslim propaganda expertly portrayed Israel's
retreat from Lebanon as a defeat. Hamas, for example, is
hedging its bets by calling for a cease-fire instead of
committing to peace. The Roadmap, Fini said, is the way
forward and we needed to re-table the notion of two people,
two states.

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(C) Reaching out to Iran over Syria
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7. (C) Responding to Wexler's question about reaching out to
regional players, D'Alema expressed little enthusiasm about
contact with Syria. Spain and Norway insist we should talk
with Damascus, D'Alema acknowledged, but he believed Tehran
was a better option. Syria is under a cloud of suspicion, he
underscored, and faces an international tribunal into former
Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri's assassination. Iran, on the
other hand, only seeks a political solution to its security
guarantees, and we can monitor the nuclear issue though
intelligence-sharing.


8. (C) Isolating Iran would be a mistake, said D'Alema,
because we need Tehran's help in areas such as Lebanon, Iraq,
and Afghanistan. The international community should do three
things to bring Tehran along: guarantee Iran's security
needs, underscore that there are no plans for regime change,
and deal with Iranian leaders with mutual respect. We can
achieve a political solution on Iran but the key for Tehran
is recognition and status, which can only come from the U.S.
D'Alema concluded that Tehran would be a difficult partner
but in the end holds more potential than Syria.

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(U) Assessing our Priorities: Iraq and Afghanistan
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9. (C) Wexler raised the issue of deepening and renewing
international commitment to Afghanistan so that NATO will
succeed there. D'Alema responded that the international
community must reflect on its priorities and Iraq seemed to
be at the top of the list. In Iraq, he said, we have three
kinds of violence: al-Qaida terror, a Sunni insurgency, and
sectarian religious violence. We need a flexible plan to
destroy al-Qaida, negotiate with insurgents, and strengthen
multi-ethnic and religious police and Army to fight religious
violence. We should consider extending the NATO training
mission (NTM-I) to include police services.


10. (C) D'Alema continued, saying that Afghanistan is not
exclusively a NATO mission and more boots on the ground is
not the answer. He pointed out that only a few NATO members
were carrying the load in Afghanistan, while the rest sat
back. D'Alema stressed that the full international community
must get involved, including the UN, other multilateral
organizations, and neighboring countries, as well as Iran.
Italy will maintain its commitment in Afghanistan but a new
political strategy is necessary. D'Alema added that Italy is
open to greater flexibility in NATO operations and encouraged
greater dialogue on the so-called caveats.

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(U) Turkey
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11. (C) In response to Wexler's appeal for Italy's support
for Turkey's EU accession, D'Alema reiterated GOI support but
said that the current impasse complicates the process. EU
member states now have to consider a "soft" solution given
that the Cyprus issue is not yet solved. Certainly, Turkey
has to accept free trade and the EU cannot turn a blind eye
to Ankara's non-compliance. Perhaps, D'Alema continued, the
EU can delay negotiations "selectively," while continuing to
negotiate on some issues. Member states will encourage
Germany--as the next EU president-- to look for a compromise

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that will provide Ankara with a face-saving solution. With
respect to pressing Cyprus, D'Alema said Italy's hands are
tied because Cyprus is a fellow EU member. Nevertheless, he
said the USG could use its influence to push the issue
through the UN as a way to unblock negotiations.

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(U) Public Diplomacy
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12. (U) At a lunch hosted by Rome's Jewish community, Wexler
discussed the Prodi government's Middle East agenda. He also
received a briefing at the Rome mosque from the Muslim
community, including the newly arrived Imam and a
representative of the Minister of Interior,s Islamic
Consulta, on integration issues facing the community. Wexler
conducted a roundtable discussion on U.S. foreign policy in
the light of recent U.S. congressional elections and
performed on-the-record interviews with the AP and the
Jerusalem Post. Wexler's interviews ran the same day on
Italian radio newscasts--including the public station RAI and
the private station RDS--reaching a total of about 3.5
million people. The RDS station, in particular, reached a
youth mass market of one million.
SPOGLI