ITALY WARNS SYRIA ON DESTABILIZING LEBANON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 003131 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2016 TAGS: PGOV XF IR LE IT SUBJECT: ITALY WARNS SYRIA ON DESTABILIZING LEBANON ROME 00003131 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Political M/C David D. Pearce for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d ) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Italy is concerned about possible Syrian-inspired efforts to destabilize Lebanon and PM Prodi has contacted President Bashar al-Asad with a message of warning. Despite the recent resignations of six cabinet ministers, Lebanese PM Siniora reportedly told the Italians he was confident in the constitutionality of his government. The Italian prime minister's deputy diplomatic adviser, who had just returned from a trip to Beirut, said Italy hoped the EU would soon send a fact-finding mission to Lebanon to explore an Italian proposal for a civilian border-monitoring initiative, now that the French had lifted their objection. He also told visiting NEA DAS Gray November 13 that PM Prodi is convinced the situation in Gaza has reached a boiling point and that movement on the MEPP is urgently necessary. On the question of possible sanctions on Iran in connection with the nuclear issue, adviser Marco Carnelos noted that economic sanctions on Iran would likely damage Italy more than any other country, so Italy sought a voice in front-end policy formulation. He thought Iran was mainly looking for recognition, especially by the United States, of its status as a regional power. End Summary. PM Siniora Confident despite Resignations -------------- ¶2. (C) Visiting NEA DAS Gordon Gray November 13 met with Marco Carnelos, deputy diplomatic adviser to Italian prime minister Prodi. Gray was accompanied by Pol M/C and poloff. Carnelos, who had just returned from a trip to Beirut, where he was accompanying a delegation of bankers, said Italy was particularly concerned with the situation in Lebanon. He said Prodi had spoken that day with Lebanese PM Siniora, who had expressed confidence his government remained on solid constitutional ground, despite the recent resignations of six cabinet ministers. Carnelos said the Lebanese had stressed the importance of movement on the issue of Shebaa Farms, in order to remove it as a pretext for Hizballah to retain its arms. Carnelos suggested the issue could be raised in the next UN report on Lebanon. PM Prodi to Deliver Strong Message to Syria -------------- ¶3. (C) Carnelos said Prodi was concerned about possible Syrian actions to destabilize Lebanon. The diplomatic adviser had just finished writing what he termed "tough" talking points for a call to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by Prodi later that day. (We later received a readout on the call from MFA officials, who said Prodi had indeed delivered such a message, calling on Asad to act positively in Lebanon. The Syrian president reportedly protested disingenuously that his influence was limited, now that all Syrian troops had been pulled out at the international community's request.) Carnelos said Syrian actions in the coming period would be an important test of Damascus' intentions. While Italy agrees with the need to move forward on the Hariri tribunal, doing so will undoubtedly further irritate Damascus and thus risk aggravating its already unhelpful behavior in the region. Despite all of the difficulties with Syria, he said, it was difficult to see an alternative to Bashar at the moment on the Syrian political landscape. French Approve EU Fact-Finding Mission on Border Monitoring -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Carnelos said Italy is still pushing for an EU monitoring mission on the Lebanese/Syrian border and that the French have finally lifted their objection to sending an EU fact-finding mission. Carnelos said PM Siniora had agreed in principle to the idea of unarmed civilian monitors on the Syrian/Lebanese border. But Lebanon doesn't want such an initiative to provide a figleaf of legitimacy to Syria and mask the destabilizing role it is actually playing. PM Prodi Convinced Movement on MEPP Urgent -------------- ROME 00003131 002.3 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Carnelos said PM Prodi is convinced the situation in Gaza has reached a boiling point and that movement on the MEPP is urgently necessary in order to address other problems in the region. Prodi, he said, hoped Israeli PM Ehud Olmert would return from his trip to Washington with "something concrete" and that the U.S. would take the initiative in moving towards progress on the MEPP. Gray noted President Bush had focused a considerable amount of attention to the Middle East in his September speech to the UNGA and had then sent the Secretary to the region. Her trip reflected the U.S. commitmen to progress on the issue. Italy Asks to Be Included on Iran Sanctions Discussions -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Carnelos frankly stated that in a worst-case scenario, sanctions on Iran would damage Italy more than any other country. Of course, limited sanctions along the lines of those in place against North Korea would be another matter. Carnelos reported PM Prodi had met with President Ahmadinejad in NY and that in person the man acts in a lucid and rational manner. However, discerning exactly what Iran is looking for remains difficult. Carnelos said he believes that Tehran seeks recognition, especially from the U.S., of its status as a regional power. ¶7. (C) Carnelos noted Italy's exclusion from discussions on Iran policy plays badly in Rome and that Italy appreciates all U.S. efforts to involve them. Clearly, he said, a new format for consultations must be found in January when Italy takes its UNSC seat. Carnelos said Prodi had recently spoken with Iranian nuclear negotiator Larijani who had expressed disappointment with Solana's alleged lack of plenipotentiary power to negotiate. Carnelos said Iran's efforts to divide the EU on the nuclear issue, although so far unsucessful, were skillful and sophisticated. ¶8. (U) NEA DAS Gray has cleared this cable. SPOGLI