ITALY VOTES NO TO BERLUSCONI-ERA CONSTITUTIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 001880 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2016 TAGS: PGOV IT SUBJECT: ITALY VOTES NO TO BERLUSCONI-ERA CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM REF: A. 05 ROME 3816 ¶B. ROME 1879 ROME 00001880 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Pol M/C David D. Pearce for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The controversial constitutional reform approved by the Berlusconi-led majority last November was defeated soundly in a public referendum by a surprisingly wide margin of 61.3 percent to 38.7 percent countrywide. Voter turnout was a high: 53.6 percent. The most well-known component of the reform was "Devolution," essentially a Northern League-proposed move toward federalism that the Prodi-led government called an effort to split up the country and further impoverish the South of Italy. Not surprisingly, the vote was closer in the North than the South, and the northern regions of Lombardy and Veneto actually voted in favor of the reform. The referendum brings to a close Italy's extended campaign marathon and should allow Prodi to focus on governing. A shake out in the center-right is likely. END SUMMARY. REFERENDUM FAILS -------------- ¶2. (U) The controversial constitutional reform approved by the Berlusconi-led majority last November was defeated soundly in a public referendum called for by now PM Romano Prodi (REF A). The referendum failed by a surprisingly wide margin of 61.3 percent to 38.7 percent countrywide. Voter turnout reached a ten-year high for a referendum: 53.6 percent of Italians voted. NORTH/SOUTH DIVIDE PERSISTS....TO AN EXTENT -------------- ¶3. (C) The center-left painted the Berlusconi-proposed reform as an attempt to split up the country and to increase the disparity of wealth between the North and the South. Though it involved extensive reforms to several articles of the constitution, the most well-known component was "Devolution," a relatively modest Northern League proposal to move Italy toward a federal state. ¶4. (C) To be expected, opposition to the proposed reform was stronger in the South where the referendum lost by a margin of 74.8 percent to 25.2. The referendum also failed in the North by a slimmer margin of 52.6 to 47.4 percent. A Northern League spokesperson, however, pointed out to Poloff that the referendum passed in the northern regions of Veneto and Lombardy, even if it failed in the major cities of Venice and Milan. POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS -------------- ¶5. (C) The referendum brings to a close an extended campaign season that began with parliamentary elections in April and continued through key mayoral and provincial elections in May. Senior Prodi adviser Ricardo Levi recently told visiting EUR/WE Director that a defeat of the referendum would be a strong defeat for Berlusconi (REF B). He continued that Berlusconi would no longer be able to argue that he actually won the parliamentary elections. Finally, Levi pointed out that Prodi could stop worrying about campaign results and begin governing since the next elections are not until 2009. ¶6. (SBU) Politicians on the left have publicly called the failed referendum a great success while recognizing the need for a consensual approach to constitutional reform. Prodi immediately called for the opposition to sit down and negotiate with them, something even Berlusconi has said he would consider. Other center-left leaders were more gloating in their public comments than Prodi. ¶7. (C) Reaction within the center-right has been mixed. The Northern League is disappointed, but Umberto Bossi took a surprisingly muted tone and said he would stick with Berlusconi and try again later. Some Northern League proponents have blamed the South (including UDC and AN voters there) for wanting to continue to live off the wealth of the North. The UDC's Marco Follini has predictably called for Berlusconi to step aside. The AN's Gianfranco Fini and UDC's Pier Ferdinando Casini called for a period of reflection, noting it is unfair to blame southern supporters of the ROME 00001880 002.2 OF 002 center-right for the referendum's defeat. Berlusconi is quoted as saying, "Now they will try to get rid of me," referring to the UDC and AN. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Italy's campaign marathon is over. After three consecutive victories, the Prodi government is stronger than the day it was formed, and Berlusconi has been soundly defeated in a third electoral test in as many months. As a result, Prodi can get to the business of governing. Senior center-left leaders have told us this string of victories would allow Prodi to rein in the increasingly boisterous radical left-wing of his coalition and that the moderates of the Daisy will finally raise their (until now) silent voices. The proof will come in the coming days as the debate over funding foreign missions abroad rages on. In any case, Prodi will no longer have the excuse of elections. ¶9. (C) COMMENT CONT.: Berlusconi has lost, and his erstwhile allies in the UDC and AN will likely try to move him aside. The question is how quickly. Conditions inside Berlusconi's own Forza Italia are no better, with multiple contacts reporting that infighting has been raging behind the scenes since the close defeat in the April 9-10 parliamentary elections. However, given the relatively strong showing of Forza Italia in the parliamentary elections and the continuing campaign season, nobody dared to push too forcefully. Now, with the elections over, the center-right will begin a potentially painful period of "reflection," to use the euphemism employed by some of its leaders. END COMMENT. SPOGLI