ITALY: PM PRODI ON CIVILIAN COMMITMENT TO IRAQ,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 001625

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT. FOR EUR/WE, NEA, SA;
OSD FOR DASD FATA AND DASD CAGAN
STATE PLEASE PASS TO SENATOR ALLEN'S OFFICE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2016
TAGS: PREL NATO MOPS EUN IZ AF IT
SUBJECT: ITALY: PM PRODI ON CIVILIAN COMMITMENT TO IRAQ,
INTEREST IN IRAN TALKS, CONCERN OVER AFGHANISTAN AND
DETERMINATION TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG ALLIANCE


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Classified By: AMBASSADOR RONALD SPOGLI. REASONS 1.4 B AND D.

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Summary
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1. (C) In a wide-ranging meeting with Senator Allen and the
Ambassador on May 30, Italian PM Prodi said Italy was firmly
committed to Iraq's future, but had to figure out how to end
its military engagement while continuing to contribute to
reconstruction and political development. He said he was
more worried about Afghanistan than Iraq, because he could
not see a political vision for the future there. Prodi
asserted that, as Iran's top European trading partner since
the 1950s, Italy should not be excluded from the EU-3 or the
P-5 plus-1 talks on Iran. He also argued for giving Italy a
larger share of responsibility in the Middle East, and added
that in many cases it would benefit the U.S. to allow Europe
and key European countries a more active role in
international problem solving. Prodi said that given Italy's
size, its overseas engagements were enormous. He intended to
sustain them, and "to do our duty as part of a strong
alliance." End Summary.


2. (C) On May 30, Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi met
visiting U.S. Senator and Chairman of the Senate Foreign
Relations Sub-Committee on Europe George Allan and the
Ambassador. They discussed Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan,
Mediterranean security, the Middle East, China, the Balkans
and European integration.

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Iraq
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3. (C) Sen. Allen thanked Podi for Italy's support and
steadfastness in protecting freedom and noted the importance
of remaining closely linked in our efforts in Iraq, where
Italy's involvement was critical. Prodi replied that given
Italy's size, its overseas engagements were "huge," and that
Italy had decided to remain engaged in the Balkans,
Afghanistan and elsewhere. "We want to do our duty as part
of a strong alliance," he said. In Iraq, Italy had made a
clear political commitment to end its military operations and
an equally clear commitment to continue its cooperation on
civilian and political reconstruction in Iraq. Prodi said
Italy would have no political problem renewing its
commitment, asserting "our decision to be in Iraq with a
different mission will be kept." He said he hoped that
Foreign Minister D'Alema would visit Iraq before his June 12
meeting with Secretary Rice (DefMin Parisi was in Iraq when
the meeting took place. We have heard that D'Alema plans to
go on June 8.)


4. (C) The Ambassador reiterated that Italy's presence in
Iraq was critical and had a value that transcended mere
numbers. It was an important symbol of unity among Allies
and a demonstration of support to the Government of Iraq. He
urged the PM not to minimize the importance to the Iraqis or
to the U.S. of Italy's presence on the ground and the vital
role Italy plays there. Prodi answered that Italy's problem
now was to find a way politically to divide the civilian work
from the military engagement so that the latter could end.
He was certain that Italy would find a way to do so and
concluded that he had always maintained a commitment to the
future of Iraq.


5. (C) Comment: While PM Prodi went out of his way to try to
reassure us, our soundings with various GOI contacts make
clear that Italy has not yet decided what it will do in Iraq.
The GOI is looking at options ranging from proceeding with
the plan of the previous government to convert to a PRT of 60
or so civilians protected by 600 to 800 Italian troops, to
withdrawing all Italians from Nassiriyah and running an
economic assistance program long-distance. FM D'Alema's
meeting with Secretary Rice on June 12 will be critical to
give Italy a clear sense of what we believe the costs and

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benefits are of the options they are considering. The
Italian decision will be made by Parliament based on
recommendations from the Council of Ministers at the end of
June/early July.

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Afghanistan
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6. (C) Prodi turned to Afghanistan, saying that while there
was some form of end in sight for Iraq, in Afghanistan, he
could not discern any political vision for the future,
disparate regional forces were gaining in strength and more
than half the GNP was based on the drug trade. "How can you
have a country like this?" he asked, adding, "in the end, we
will be embarrassed." He said he was much more worried about
Afghanistan's future than about Iraq's.

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Iran
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7. (C) In response to Sen. Allen stressing the importance of
U.S.-European unity on Iran and preventing Iran from
acquiring nuclear weapons, Prodi pointed out that Italy had
been Iran's top European trading partner since the 1950s, and
as such, should not be excluded from fora such as the EU-3 or
the P-5 plus-1. He said that Iran was much more important
than Iraq, that not only did we need to keep nuclear weapons
out of Iranian hands, we also needed to keep Iran from
becoming "wild and out of control." Prodi suggested that we
must see whether Ahmedinejad was really empowered, noting
that his rhetoric was even more aggressive than that of the
clerics, and added we all need to try to better understand
what is going on inside Iran.

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Mediterranean/Middle East
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8. (C) Prodi claimed that Italy had a responsibility to
organize a Mediterranean policy that establishes links
between Europe and the countries on the southern shores, and
that one of his first acts would be an initiative to
establish common Mediterranean institutions (universities,
banks, etc.). He hoped that Morocco, Israel, Egypt and
others would be receptive, and that Italy could work with
Spain, France, Greece and Cyprus on this. He said the
Islamic world is the most difficult audience for receiving
the democratic message, but that his initiative to build
common institutions could help.


9. (C) When Sen. Allen asked what the U.S. could do better in
advancing our shared values, Prodi answered that the U.S.
must share more responsibility, and cited as an example the
marginal role played by Europe in the Middle East peace
process. Prodi said that was not helpful to either our
common interests or relations between us, but conceded that
the Europeans were partly at fault because they were so
divided. He repeated that the more responsibility could be
shared with Europe in the Middle East, the better, adding,
"we know the area well. We live in it." Sen. Allen said it
would be helpful if the EU would list Hezbollah as a
terrorist organization and help cut off its financing. Prodi
replied that while we all must be against Hezbollah, we must
take care not to cause explosions in Palestinian society. A
rising death rate would have an undesirable effect. A
humanitarian channel was needed. The Palestinian Authority
needed to recover and perhaps win back power in the next
elections. Prodi praised the Israeli initiative to allow in
medical products and hospital supplies. The Ambassador said
Hamas was trying to frame a false choice. The choice was not
between Palestinian suffering or western support, but between
Palestinian suffering and Hamas renouncing terror and
recognizing Israel.

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Balkans/Europe
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10. (C) Prodi said he was convinced that EU membership must
be offered as a clear political target to the countries of
the Balkans or foreign troops would never be able to get out.
He asked if we could imagine what today's Europe would be
like if the EU had not enlarged, especially with a more
assertive Russia. He hoped that the EU would take in Croatia
and Macedonia soon, and in the mid-term would also bring in
Albania and Bosnia. Italian troops, he said, may be there
for another 20 years, but EU prospects would help hasten
stability. He acknowledged that after the failure of the
vote on the constitution there was more prudence among EU
members towards further enlargement, and that he was taking
it upon himself to try to keep Romania and Bulgaria moving
toward membership (pointing out that, 10 years ago, if you
had said Romania would soon be in the EU, they'd put you in
an asylum). On the question of Turkish membership, he said
progress had slowed, but because of lack of continued
European "digestive capacity" rather than anything the Turks
had or had not done. Turkish membership, he said, would be a
longer and harder issue than membership for the Balkan
states, who have small populations and together have one
percent of the EU's GNP. Prodi said he hoped it would be
possible to re-start the European process after next year's
French elections. He asserted that France cannot move on EU
questions until after those elections, and this would stop
motion by the EU as a whole. Prodi identified two other
challenges facing the EU: simplifying the constitution to
focus on basic principles; and grappling with a common
currency in the absence of a common fiscal policy.

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China
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11. (C) Prodi asked Sen. Allen about U.S. views of China.
Sen. Allen said China does not share our values, and that
while it was not an enemy, it was more than just a
competitor. In some ways it was an opponent. The question,
he said, was whether China would liberalize and permit
freedom. Chinese behavior was not, he underscored,
constrained by public opinion. Prodi said he believed the
Chinese leaders would have to allow liberalization when
average income levels reached a certain point.


12. (U)Senator Allen did not have an opportunity to clear
this message.
SPOGLI