ITALY: A LOOK AT THE PRODI GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 001527 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR IT SUBJECT: ITALY: A LOOK AT THE PRODI GOVERNMENT REF: ROME 1518 ROME 00001527 001.4 OF 003 Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor David D. Pearce for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Romano Prodi and his cabinet of 25 ministers were sworn in May 17 by President of the Republic Giorgio Napolitano. Political commentators immediately called the government composition "more left than center", but the vital ministries of Foreign Affairs, Interior, Defense, Economy and Justice went to reformists. With only six female ministers, five being ministers without portfolio, women are disappointed. Prodi's early challenge will be balancing the need for structural reform of Italy's economy he and some of the reformists favor with the demands of the radical left to "preserve Italy's social system." Though in reformist hands, the opposition also thinks it can exploit different views between the radical and reformist left on foreign policy. Prodi says he can govern for five years and important elements of the radical left say they are prepared to compromise, but both those statements will be tested constantly. Biographic sketches of key ministers are included at the end of this cable. END SUMMARY. PRODI GOVERNMENT SWORN IN -------------- ¶2. (U) Romano Prodi and his cabinet of 25 ministers were sworn in May 17 by President of the Republic Giorgio Napolitano. Prodi's government is now official, though it must still pass a vote of confidence in the Senate on May 19 and a vote of confidence in the Chamber of Deputies on May 23 in order to exercise its full powers. Two of the ministers double as Vice Premier. Prodi also announced May 18 that the government will have 72 Vice Ministers and Under Secretaries, a relatively high number by historical standards. COMMENTS ON THE CABINET LIST -------------- ¶3. (U) Biographic sketches of key ministers are included at the end of this cable. A full listing with sketches and pictures of all the ministers is available on Embassy Rome's Siprnet homepage. ¶4. (C) Prodi's coalition can be categorized in two general streams: the reformist center-left and the radical left. The reformists generally are former communists turned social democrat and one-time members of the left wing of the former Christian Democratic Party. The main parties are the Democrats of the Left (DS) and Democracy and Liberty--the Daisy. The radical left includes unrepentant communists, no-global activists and radical greens. There are three radical parties in the coalition: Communist Renewal (RC), Italian Communist Party (PdCI) and the Greens. Clemente Mastella's UDEUR is an exception: a small centrist party that bounces back and forth between coalitions with the left and the right. Reformists were given the two Vice Premier positions and the ministries of vital interest to the U.S., including: Foreign, Defense, Interior, Economy and Justice. ¶5. (U) Political commentators immediately called the government composition "more left than center", and the radical left will take control of the ministries of Environment, Transportation and Social Solidarity. Many of the reformist ministers in non-security/foreign policy ministries are considered politically weak. Minister of Labor Cesare Damiano is a member of the DS but represents the least reform-minded component of that party. In fact, he has already announced his intention to repeal some Berlusconi-era pension reforms. The Minister of Transportation, Alessandro Bianchi from the PdCI, has already announced that the controversial mega projects like the bridge over the Straight of Messina and the high speed rail link in the north could be canceled. ¶6. (U) Despite Prodi's promise to give women a prominent role in his government, only six of 25 ministers are women, and five of them are ministers without portfolio. That means they work primarily in policy coordination and manage relatively little money. Prominent DS member Livia Turco, who as Minister of Health is the only women with a real ministry, expressed her disappointment publicly. ¶7. (U) None of the ministers are from the northern region of Lombardy or the island of Sicily. These are Italy's two most populous regions and relative strongholds for the opposition ROME 00001527 002.4 OF 003 center-right. IMPLICATIONS FOR GOVERNMENT STABILITY -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Showing questionable media savvy, Prodi announced that his government "could not fail." The government has a very strong DS component; the Daisy is well represented; and each of the small parties in his coalition with parliamentary representation obtained one ministry. Emma Bonino (Rose in the Fist),who had lobbied hard to be Minister of Defense, appears satisfied with her post as Minister without Portfolio for European Affairs. Commentators believe Prodi struck the right balance to keep the various coalition partners content. ¶9. (C) COMMENT: Prodi's challenge will be balancing the need for structural reform of Italy's economy he and some of the reformists favor with the demands of the radical left to "preserve Italy's social system" (REFTEL),without leaving openings for the center-right opposition to bring down the government. In fact, Most observers believe domestic policy is where Prodi's government faces its most important internal contradictions. Reformists gained the ministries most important to US national interests, and that is good news, but important policy decisions will require the support, or at least the tolerance, of the radical left, most of which still formally and vocally opposes any Italian troop presence in Iraq. Forza Italia (FI) politicians and others have made it clear that opposition leader Silvio Berlusconi plans to exploit any weakness in the Prodi government in order to bring it down. ¶10. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: RC Parliamentary leader in the Chamber of Deputies Gennaro Migliore recently told Poloff that RC understands the compromises a responsible party must make when working inside a coalition with partners sharing different views. He said the radical left knows it needs the reformist left in order to achieve its objectives and said only a decision to go to war would cause RC to pull its support from Prodi. The veracity of Migliore's statement is likely to be tested frequently, as Prodi's government also depends on support from the even more radical PdCI and the Greens. END COMMENT. KEY CABINET BIOGRAPHIES -------------- ¶11. (C) Foreign Affairs and Deputy PM, Massimo D,ALEMA (DS): As President of the government's largest party and a former PM, D'Alema lobbied for a high-profile role in this government and was in contention for the Presidency of the Chamber of Deputies and the Presidency of the Republic. Considered the political heavyweight of the center-left, D'Alema is considered the strongest figure in the Prodi government. He is highly ambitious, very shrewd and likely has designs on PM. Some predict he will be the shadow PM. The MFA is a consolation prize and offers him international exposure, but may be too dogmatic and even admitted so to the Ambassador this year. As former PM (1998-2000),he led Italy's military involvement in Kosovo. He was highly critical of the Iraq intervention but strongly supports counter-terrorism cooperation and is ultimately pragmatic. A former Communist Party member, he helped found the DS and was the first former communist to become PM. He speaks good French, but poor English. (C) Culture and Deputy PM, Francesco RUTELLI (Daisy): The other of two Deputy PMs, Rutelli recently told the Ambassador that he, D'Alema and Prodi would make all important government decisions. The former Mayor of Rome (1993-2001), Rutelli leads second largest party in coalition. He lost to Silvio Berlusconi in the 2001 elections. This is his second cabinet-level post, having resigned as Environment Minister in 1993 in protest of a decision to go soft on former PM Craxi in a corruption scandal. He holds moderate views, but is often swayed by polls. He supports Italy's mission in Afghanistan, has advocated more Defense funding to enhance Italy's missions abroad, has called for intelligence reform and is a strong and consistent supporter of Israel. He has repeatedly expressed his desire to be a key link to Washington. Rutelli speaks English. (C) Defense, Arturo PARISI (Daisy). Formally part of the Daisy, Parisi is really a long-standing Prodi adviser. He has no defense experience, but was U/S in Palazzo Chigi in Prodi's first government (1996-98). He won Prodi's parliamentary seat when Prodi transferred to the EU 1999. . A former academic, Parisi has taught Ecclesiastical law, religious history, and sociology. He was a leader of Catholic political movement in 1960s. Parisi's father died ROME 00001527 003.4 OF 003 when he was six. Some have commented that Parisi has a sometimes prickly personality. (C) Interior, Giuliano AMATO (Ind.): An independent politician within the left and two-time PM (1992-93 and 2000-01) is widely believed to have been Prodi's original candidate for President of the Republic. Strongly pro-EU, he was a key leader in crafting the EU constitution. A former Fulbright Scholar (1962-63) and President of the Center for American Studies, he is equally pro-US. Highly intellectual, Amato is known as "Dr. Subtle" for ability to craft arguments and for his soft-spoken style. In addition to stints as PM, Amato has also been Minister for Institutional Reform (1998-99),Treasury (1999-2000),and President of the Anti-trust Authority (1994-97).He speaks fluent English. (C) Justice, Clemente MASTELLA (UDEUR): Mastella is the quintessential southern politician caste in the Christian Democrat mold. He has built his political base on patronage and is reported to live lavishly. Mastella reportedly lobbied hard for prominent role in the cabinet and is believed to have voted against Senate President Franco Marini in the first few rounds of voting to show Prodi just how important his party is to coalition stability. He was rumored to be a front-runner for the Defense brief, though one of his aides told Poloff that Mastella was unsure about taking that job since he did not want to be the one to disappoint the U.S. by bringing Italy's soldiers home from Iraq. A centrist politician famous for switching loyalties between the left and the right, Mastella was Labor Minister in Berlusconi's first government (1994) and Defense U/S (1989-91) in the First Republic. A Volvis grantee (1988),Mastella's wife is American. He does not speak English. (SBU) Economy and Finance, Tommaso PADOA SCHIOPPA (Ind.): An independent technocrat, Padoa Schioppa brings strong international credentials to this key portfolio. A former board member of the European Central Bank (1998-2005),he was also Deputy Director General in the Bank of Italy (1983-97) where he was a career civil servant. He is an accomplished author, mainly on monetary policy. He holds advanced degrees in economics, including from MIT (1970). Padoa Schioppa speaks English. SPOGLI