ITALY: ELECTORAL REFORM COULD BRING DIVIDED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 000141 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/06/2015 TAGS: PGOV IT ITALIAN POLITICS ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS SUBJECT: ITALY: ELECTORAL REFORM COULD BRING DIVIDED GOVERNMENT REF: A. ROME 3996 ¶B. ROME 3442 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor David D. Pearce for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In addition to impacts reported REF A and B, Italy's controversial electoral reform law introduces different systems for calculating results in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. In the Chamber of Deputies, the winning coalition receives a majority premium guaranteeing that it will have at least 54 percent of Chamber seats. Because the Italian Senate represents the regions, percentages of seats assigned per party will be based on results in individual regions. The two different methods of calculation could result in different party coalitions winning the Italian Chamber and the Senate. Such an outcome likely would result in a protracted period of unstable government. END SUMMARY. -------------- ELECTORAL REFORM: MULTIPLE IMPACTS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) President Ciampi signed into law electoral reform legislation on December 23 that changes Italy's national electoral system from a mixed proportional/majoritarian voting system to a purely proportional system. REFS A and B report on how the reform will strengthen party bosses, increase the electoral chances for the current Center-Right coalition led by Silvio Berlusconi and dramatize intra-coalition rivalries. Because of constitutional concerns raised by President Ciampi, drafters of electoral reform were forced to design different implementing mechanics for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. This change could also result in different majorities winning the two chambers. -------------- -------------- DIFFERENT CALCULATIONS FOR THE CHAMBER AND THE SENATE -------------- -------------- ¶3. (U) Members of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies will be elected differently. Italy is divided into 20 electoral districts, corresponding to Italy's 20 regions, for the Senate; and it is divided into 27 districts for the Chamber of Deputies. Each district has a predefined number of Parliamentarians according to the population. ¶4. (C) Drafters of the legislation wanted to ensure the winning coalition had a sufficiently strong majority to ensure effective governability. As a result, the winning coalition will be assigned a "majority premium." In the Chamber, the winning coalition of parties will automatically be given at least 54 percent of Chamber seats. However, this system does not achieve the same effect in the Senate. Majority premiums in the Senate are granted on a regional basis so that the winning coalition in Lazio receives 55 percent of the Lazio seats and the winning coalition in Puglia receives 55 percent of the Puglia seats. Majority premiums won in different regions might cancel each other out. Referring to the Senate system, a Forza Italia campaign manager said it "is relatively easy to see that the new electoral system will create a situation of difficult governability" in the Senate. -------------- A U.S. COMPARISON -------------- ¶5. (SBU) For comparative purposes, if the Italian system were applied to the U.S., whichever party wins the popular vote would receive 54 percent of the seats in the House of Representatives. The Senate would be voted in a system more analogous to the U.S. Electoral College. Each party would run to win individual states. For example, the party/coalition winning California would win 55 percent of the seats for California and the party/coalition winning Montana would win 55 percent of Montana's seats. Since California is more populous than Montana and the number of seats assigned to each state is apportioned based on population, winning California is more important politically. -------------- POTENTIALLY INCONSISTENT RESULTS -------------- ¶6. (SBU) As experience has shown, it is possible for one party to win the popular vote but not win the Electoral College. Translated back into the Italian system, one party/coalition could win the Chamber of Deputies by virtue of winning the plurality of votes and another party could win the Senate based on a success in key regions. ¶7. (C) A Forza Italia campaign manager described several scenarios to Poloff. He said it is relatively certain that the Center-Right will win Lombardy, Veneto and Sicily and that the Center-Left will win in Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany, Marche, Umbria, Campania and Basilicata. Per the new system, the winning coalition will receive at least 55 percent of the seats for each region. In one scenario, he posited that the Center-Left wins all the remaining regions. Under that scenario, the Center-Left would win 52.4 percent of the Senate seats (165 of 315). In a scenario in which the Center-Right wins all the marginal districts, it would gain 161 seats, or 51 percent of the total. He concluded, "The situation becomes worse if we consider the more realistic situation in which neither the Union (Center-Left) nor the Casa de la Liberta (Center-Right) wins in all the marginal districts." He stated that the Center-Right has a fair chance of winning in Lazio, Puglia and Piedmont which would result in a "situation in which a majority would not be certain without taking into account the results of seats assigned to Italians abroad." -------------- WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR GOVERNABILITY -------------- ¶8. (C) A well-placed Forza Italia official in Palazzo Chigi told Poloff that Italian politics does not share the American tradition of political compromise and that a divided government would not work well in Italy. She predicted there is a fair likelihood, according to current polls, that the Center-Left will win the national vote and obtain a 54 percent majority in the Chamber of Deputies. She continued that it is very possible that the Center-Right wins a majority in the Senate. ¶9. (C) According to this official, this electoral result would yield two unattractive governing options: (1) a Grand Coalition like the one currently in Germany, (2) Romano Prodi leads an extremely weak Center-Left government that falls after less than a year. She said Italy's political tradition would not naturally support a Grand Coalition so the second option is more likely. After the Prodi government falls, either new elections would be called or the parties of the center will try to piece together a coalition of the center. ¶10. (C) COMMENT: Italian national elections remain three months away, and it is not yet possible to predict a clear winner of the national vote, even if the Center-Left appears to be maintaining a slight lead. However, design flaws in Italy's electoral reform legislation have created the possibility that the true winner will remain unclear even after the votes are tallied. We agree that a split outcome could result in a protracted period of unstable government. END COMMENT. ¶11. (U) Following are the mechanics of Italy's new voting system. -Voters receive two ballots, one for the Senate and one for the Chamber of Deputies. The ballots show only symbols, representing single political parties, or coalitions of parties grouped together under one symbol. The candidates per party for that voting district are listed on posters outside the voting booth. -Italy is divided into 20 electoral districts, corresponding to Italy's 20 regions, for the Senate, and 27 districts for the Chamber of Deputies. Each district has a predefined number of Parliamentarians according to the population. -Seats are assigned in proportion to votes received with an extra number of seats (governing premium) assigned to the winning coalition. -In the Chamber, coalitions must receive 10 percent of the national vote to qualify for seats. Independent parties need 4 percent, while parties within coalitions need only 2 percent. An exception is made for the best of the non-qualifying parties, that is, the party under 2 percent that gets the highest percentage participates in the proportional distribution. -In the Senate, coalitions will need 20 percent of the vote, independent parties 8 percent and coalition parties 3 percent to get seats assigned in the region. -The new law also awards a governing premium to ensure that the winning coalition has a working majority of seats. Different calculation systems are used in the Chamber and Senate. -In the Chamber the winning coalition is guaranteed a minimum of 340 seats (54 percent),based on the majority of votes obtained nationally. (If the winning coalition obtains that number of seats, or more, from electors, there will be no governing premium.) -In the Senate the governing premium (for a total minimum of 55 percent) will be assigned on a region-by-region basis, to the coalition with most votes in each of the regions. -The above does not include 12 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, and 6 in the Senate, which are allotted to the "overseas districts", where Italian citizens living abroad will be able to vote for their preferred candidates from their regional countries (outside of Italy). -Parties must register, declaring their campaign alliances, indicating at the same time the name of the person they choose as Prime Minister candidate. -In the case of a government crisis, and when it becomes impossible to put together a governing majority, parliament is dismissed and early elections are held. SPOGLI