ITALY: ELECTORAL REFORM COULD BRING DIVIDED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 000141

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/06/2015
TAGS: PGOV IT ITALIAN POLITICS ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ITALY: ELECTORAL REFORM COULD BRING DIVIDED
GOVERNMENT

REF: A. ROME 3996

B. ROME 3442

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor David D. Pearce for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In addition to impacts reported REF A and B,
Italy's controversial electoral reform law introduces
different systems for calculating results in the Chamber of
Deputies and the Senate. In the Chamber of Deputies, the
winning coalition receives a majority premium guaranteeing
that it will have at least 54 percent of Chamber seats.
Because the Italian Senate represents the regions,
percentages of seats assigned per party will be based on
results in individual regions. The two different methods of
calculation could result in different party coalitions
winning the Italian Chamber and the Senate. Such an outcome
likely would result in a protracted period of unstable
government. END SUMMARY.

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ELECTORAL REFORM: MULTIPLE IMPACTS
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2. (SBU) President Ciampi signed into law electoral reform
legislation on December 23 that changes Italy's national
electoral system from a mixed proportional/majoritarian
voting system to a purely proportional system. REFS A and B
report on how the reform will strengthen party bosses,
increase the electoral chances for the current Center-Right
coalition led by Silvio Berlusconi and dramatize
intra-coalition rivalries. Because of constitutional
concerns raised by President Ciampi, drafters of electoral
reform were forced to design different implementing mechanics
for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. This change
could also result in different majorities winning the two
chambers.

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DIFFERENT CALCULATIONS FOR THE CHAMBER AND THE SENATE
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3. (U) Members of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies will
be elected differently. Italy is divided into 20 electoral
districts, corresponding to Italy's 20 regions, for the
Senate; and it is divided into 27 districts for the Chamber
of Deputies. Each district has a predefined number of
Parliamentarians according to the population.


4. (C) Drafters of the legislation wanted to ensure the
winning coalition had a sufficiently strong majority to
ensure effective governability. As a result, the winning
coalition will be assigned a "majority premium." In the
Chamber, the winning coalition of parties will automatically
be given at least 54 percent of Chamber seats. However, this
system does not achieve the same effect in the Senate.
Majority premiums in the Senate are granted on a regional
basis so that the winning coalition in Lazio receives 55
percent of the Lazio seats and the winning coalition in
Puglia receives 55 percent of the Puglia seats. Majority
premiums won in different regions might cancel each other
out. Referring to the Senate system, a Forza Italia campaign
manager said it "is relatively easy to see that the new
electoral system will create a situation of difficult
governability" in the Senate.

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A U.S. COMPARISON
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5. (SBU) For comparative purposes, if the Italian system were
applied to the U.S., whichever party wins the popular vote
would receive 54 percent of the seats in the House of
Representatives. The Senate would be voted in a system more
analogous to the U.S. Electoral College. Each party would
run to win individual states. For example, the
party/coalition winning California would win 55 percent of
the seats for California and the party/coalition winning
Montana would win 55 percent of Montana's seats. Since
California is more populous than Montana and the number of
seats assigned to each state is apportioned based on
population, winning California is more important politically.

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POTENTIALLY INCONSISTENT RESULTS
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6. (SBU) As experience has shown, it is possible for one
party to win the popular vote but not win the Electoral
College. Translated back into the Italian system, one
party/coalition could win the Chamber of Deputies by virtue
of winning the plurality of votes and another party could win
the Senate based on a success in key regions.

7. (C) A Forza Italia campaign manager described several
scenarios to Poloff. He said it is relatively certain that
the Center-Right will win Lombardy, Veneto and Sicily and
that the Center-Left will win in Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany,
Marche, Umbria, Campania and Basilicata. Per the new system,
the winning coalition will receive at least 55 percent of the
seats for each region. In one scenario, he posited that the
Center-Left wins all the remaining regions. Under that
scenario, the Center-Left would win 52.4 percent of the
Senate seats (165 of 315). In a scenario in which the
Center-Right wins all the marginal districts, it would gain
161 seats, or 51 percent of the total. He concluded, "The
situation becomes worse if we consider the more realistic
situation in which neither the Union (Center-Left) nor the
Casa de la Liberta (Center-Right) wins in all the marginal
districts." He stated that the Center-Right has a fair chance
of winning in Lazio, Puglia and Piedmont which would result
in a "situation in which a majority would not be certain
without taking into account the results of seats assigned to
Italians abroad."
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WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR GOVERNABILITY
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8. (C) A well-placed Forza Italia official in Palazzo Chigi
told Poloff that Italian politics does not share the American
tradition of political compromise and that a divided
government would not work well in Italy. She predicted there
is a fair likelihood, according to current polls, that the
Center-Left will win the national vote and obtain a 54
percent majority in the Chamber of Deputies. She continued
that it is very possible that the Center-Right wins a
majority in the Senate.


9. (C) According to this official, this electoral result
would yield two unattractive governing options: (1) a Grand
Coalition like the one currently in Germany, (2) Romano Prodi
leads an extremely weak Center-Left government that falls
after less than a year. She said Italy's political tradition
would not naturally support a Grand Coalition so the second
option is more likely. After the Prodi government falls,
either new elections would be called or the parties of the
center will try to piece together a coalition of the center.


10. (C) COMMENT: Italian national elections remain three
months away, and it is not yet possible to predict a clear
winner of the national vote, even if the Center-Left appears
to be maintaining a slight lead. However, design flaws in
Italy's electoral reform legislation have created the
possibility that the true winner will remain unclear even
after the votes are tallied. We agree that a split outcome
could result in a protracted period of unstable government.
END COMMENT.


11. (U) Following are the mechanics of Italy's new voting
system.

-Voters receive two ballots, one for the Senate and one for
the Chamber of Deputies. The ballots show only symbols,
representing single political parties, or coalitions of
parties grouped together under one symbol. The candidates
per party for that voting district are listed on posters
outside the voting booth.

-Italy is divided into 20 electoral districts, corresponding
to Italy's 20 regions, for the Senate, and 27 districts for
the Chamber of Deputies. Each district has a predefined
number of Parliamentarians according to the population.

-Seats are assigned in proportion to votes received with an
extra number of seats (governing premium) assigned to the
winning coalition.

-In the Chamber, coalitions must receive 10 percent of the
national vote to qualify for seats. Independent parties need
4 percent, while parties within coalitions need only 2
percent. An exception is made for the best of the
non-qualifying parties, that is, the party under 2 percent
that gets the highest percentage participates in the
proportional distribution.

-In the Senate, coalitions will need 20 percent of the vote,
independent parties 8 percent and coalition parties 3 percent
to get seats assigned in the region.

-The new law also awards a governing premium to ensure that
the winning coalition has a working majority of seats.
Different calculation systems are used in the Chamber and
Senate.
-In the Chamber the winning coalition is guaranteed a minimum
of 340 seats (54 percent),based on the majority of votes
obtained nationally. (If the winning coalition obtains that
number of seats, or more, from electors, there will be no
governing premium.)

-In the Senate the governing premium (for a total minimum of
55 percent) will be assigned on a region-by-region basis, to
the coalition with most votes in each of the regions.

-The above does not include 12 seats in the Chamber of
Deputies, and 6 in the Senate, which are allotted to the
"overseas districts", where Italian citizens living abroad
will be able to vote for their preferred candidates from
their regional countries (outside of Italy).

-Parties must register, declaring their campaign alliances,
indicating at the same time the name of the person they
choose as Prime Minister candidate.

-In the case of a government crisis, and when it becomes
impossible to put together a governing majority, parliament
is dismissed and early elections are held.
SPOGLI