ITALY: PRODI ALLY LOOKS AHEAD ON IRAQ, HAMAS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 001221 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS KPAL IZ IT SUBJECT: ITALY: PRODI ALLY LOOKS AHEAD ON IRAQ, HAMAS, RUSSIA, BALKANS REF: A. STATE 63196 ¶B. ROME 1209 ¶C. ROME 1207 ROME 00001221 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: A/DCM David D. Pearce for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Head of the Democrats of the Left (DS) International Affairs Office adviser and newly elected member of parliament Luciano Vecchi told Poloff that Prodi would strictly follow EU policy with regards to Hamas. Vecchi also confirmed the Center-Left position on Iraq, reaffirming that any withdrawal would be in consultation with and in coordination with the government of Iraq and "other interested parties." He expressed specific support for an Italian-led PRT. On other issues, Vecchi expressed concern with democratic backsliding in Russia, the independence vote in Montenegro and the viability of an independent Kosovo. Vecchi assured Poloff that a Prodi government intends to further improve US-Italian relations while repairing damage to other important relations harmed by neglect. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) PolOff met with Democrats of the Left (DS) International Affairs Director and possible future senior MFA official Luciano Vecchi April 24 to discuss Hamas, government formation, Iraq, Russia and Kosovo. Vecchi was accompanied by Federica Megherini. PolOff congratulated Vecchi on the Union coalition's confirmed electoral victory in the April 9-10 parliamentary elections and stated that the U.S. government looked forward to working with the new government. -------------- -- PHONES MIGHT NOT WORK THE NEXT TIME HAMAS CALLS -------------- -- ¶3. (C) PolOff raised prospective PM Romano Prodi's acceptance of a congratulatory phone call from Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Ismail Haniyah on April 18 and expressed U.S. concern that Prodi acted inconsistently with established EU policy which proscribes contact with Hamas officials at the political and ministerial level (REF A). Consistent with the response of other Prodi advisers (REF B),Vecchi said it had been an incoming cell phone call, and that Prodi was accompanied by only a small group of advisers who thought it would be opportune to express the standard EU formula and three conditions for Hamas. Poloff said Washington was not so concerned about the message delivered during the conversation: the big problem was the message delivered to Hamas by accepting the call. After Poloff noted that Hamas was trumpeting its new ally in Italy, Vecchi said Prodi and the CL were "not happy with that." ¶4. (C) Vecchi refrained from terming Prodi's acceptance of the call a mistake but when asked how he thought Prodi would respond the next time Hamas calls, he said "often the phones don't work so well in Italy." Vecchi stated that a Prodi government would strictly follow the EU line on Hamas but hinted that more needs to be done to encourage Hamas to behave better. He said it is not a positive result that money the EU has withdrawn from the Palestinian Authority has been replaced by funds from Iran. At the same time, Mogherini said much of Hamas' electoral support came not from Islamic extremists but from common Palestinians disillusioned with the management of the Palestinian territories by Al Fatah. She said the Quartet's other goal must be to prevent Hamas from consolidating that support. -------------- NO ZAPATERO AND SUPPORT FOR PRTS -------------- ¶5. (C) Vecchi said the current government had started the withdrawal schedule for Italian troops in Iraq that the Prodi government would follow--a schedule aiming for a complete withdrawal by the end of 2006. Vecchi confirmed that any withdrawal would be in consultation and in coordination with the government of Iraq and "other interested parties." He predicted an accelerated build-up of civilian reconstruction teams in support of the Italian PRT and the need for a contingent of Italian security forces to provide protection. Vecchi was unaware of any talk within the Prodi camp that a troop withdrawal could be accelerated slightly for political reasons (REF C). Poloff emphasized the need for all actions to be based on facts on the ground and coordinated to prevent any security gaps. ROME 00001221 002.2 OF 003 ¶6. (C) Unprompted, Vecchi said Prodi would be careful that the government's public signals avoid any appearance that actions being taken could have an anti-American flavor or that the comments could disappoint "our good friend Talabani." Mogherini did predict that the Italian Communist Party (PdCI) and the Greens, who are members of Prodi's coalition and likely government partners, would raise their tones in advance of the July vote for funding the Iraqi mission in Iraq. Both she and Vecchi said the US should not be worried by that, however. Nevertheless, Vecchi predicted some tough work ahead for the coalition as it moved mission funding through parliament. -------------- RUSSIA POLICY IN DEVELOPMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Vecchi discussed Russia's seemingly backward slide away from democracy as evidenced by its increasing involvement in the internal politics of Belarus and Ukraine and its internal oppression of NGOs. Vecchi told of how he had planned to meet a Russian contact who was a member of a small opposition party, but was called shortly before the meeting and told that "Putin had just signed a decree eliminating our party." Vecchi stated that Russia is a question mark because it is strategically very important for Italy as an energy partner, but that there were concerns about its democratic backslide. As Vecchi noted, there is unfortunately very little difference between modern Russia and totalitarian Russia: before there was only one party, now there are many but only one counts. -------------- KOSOVO AND MONTENEGRO -------------- ¶8. (C) While discussing the upcoming referendum on Montenegro's possible independence from Serbia-Montenegro, Vecchi stated his personal opinion that setting the bar for independence at 55 percent was "silly" since a majority is 50 percent plus one. He predicted that if 54 percent of the population voted in favor of independence, a civil war could break out between the pro-independence and pro-union factions. Vecchi did not see a need for Montenegro to be independent but admitted that if it wants independence, there was no reason for it not to be its own state. ¶9. (C) Vecchi stated that the real problem in the Balkans pertains to the future of Kosovo. According to Vecchi, it is clear that Kosovo cannot be absorbed peacefully into Serbia, but it is also a landlocked, resource-deprived nation, run by criminal gangs protected by NATO troops and surrounded by strong Albanian ethnic minorities in neighboring countries. He was unsure how Kosovo could survive on its own but could offer no other solution. -------------- TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS -------------- ¶10. (C) Vecchi reassured PolOff that there is nothing in the Union program that is against a continued, strong relationship with the US. He mentioned that he would have included even more language in the Union program on Italy's relationship with the US, in addition to the existing language on our military partnership. Vecchi noted that during the Berlusconi government, Italy had strong relations with only five countries (the United States, Russia, Serbia, Israel and Turkey) and so-so relations with the rest of the world. He continued that the new government has to continue the already established strong relationships with these five countries and seek to develop improved ties with the rest of the world. -------------- A FEW NOTES ON GOVERNMENT FORMATION -------------- ¶11. (C) Mogherini discussed government formation developments in light of the recent decision by DS President Massimo D'Alema to step aside and allow Communist Renewal Secretary Fausto Bertinotti (RC) to take the pole position for the important Presidency of the Chamber of Deputies. She argued that Prodi strengthened his coalition and reinforced the more ROME 00001221 003.2 OF 003 moderate elements within the Communist Renewal party by giving Bertinotti such a high-profile institutional position in the new government. By making Bertinotti part of the establishment, Prodi weakened the more extreme elements within Bertinotti's party and has ensured a more cooperative, centrist RC party. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) Vecchi was optimistic about Prodi's chances of forming a government and positive about Prodi being able to lead a centrist foreign policy despite extreme elements in the coalition. He noted that the CL had governed from 1996-1998 with a slim majority in the Chamber of Deputies. A first test of this will come in June/July on voting to approve the next six months of funding for Italian military missions abroad. On Hamas, Vecchi's wry comment about Italian phones suggests that Prodi and his allies felt the heat generated by the Haniyah call. END COMMENT. BORG