ITALY: CODEL HYDE HEARS PLANS FOR A ROBUST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 001203 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV OREP IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS SUBJECT: ITALY: CODEL HYDE HEARS PLANS FOR A ROBUST CENTER-RIGHT OPPOSITION Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Anna Borg, for reasons 1.4 (B)(D). ¶1. (C) Summary. Berlusconi U/S Gianni Letta told a visiting Codel Hyde delegation April 19 that, given a strong second-place showing in the elections, the center-right would play the part of a particularly robust opposition party when the new center-left government took office. He predicted that despite a few bumps, including on Iraq, we should expect bilateral relations under a center-left government to remain strong. He also predicted that (DS) Fassino would be the new Foreign Minister with (Daisy) Rutelli becoming Minister of Interior and (DS) D'Alema going to lead the Chamber of Deputies. Letta expressed Berlusconi's deep appreciation for the opportunity to address the U.S.Congress in March and for joint security cooperation on the Turin Olympics. End Summary. Nostalgia -------------- ¶2. (SBU) House International Relations Committee Chairman Henry Hyde led a delegation to Rome April l8-20 to attend an audience with Pope Benedict and meet with Italian officials. During a meeting the delegation, PM Berlusconi's chief aide, U/S Gianni Letta, was in an unusually expansive and nostalgic mood. He regretted Berlusconi was out of town but expressed the Prime Minister's appreciation for the opportunity to address the U.S. Congress in March saying it was "the emotional high point" of his life and gave Italians of all political persuasions a chance to be proud of their country. He also voiced thanks for our security cooperation that helped to make the Turin Olympics a safe and successful event. ¶3. (SBU) Congressman Issa thanked Letta for Italy's participation in joint initiatives from the Balkans to the Middle East and said that the Berlusconi government had changed history. In response to questions, Letta assured the delegation that, regardless of the center-left win, U.S.-Italian relations would continue to be strong because they were based on history and personal ties. He recalled with both nostalgia and pride his personal relationships with U.S. Ambassadors dating back to the Carter era and praised Ambassador Spogli for his deep understanding of the Italian scene "from day one." Letta said one of his fondest memories was attending a dinner hosted by Berlusconi for President George W. Bush and former Presidents Bush and Clinton when they visited in 2005 for Pope John Paul II's funeral. Promises of a Robust Opposition -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Asked about his future plans, Letta said he intended to remain at Berlusconi's side. Noting that the center-right had won in all of the most commercially productive regions of the country, especially the North, and had lost by only 24,000 votes, Letta said that he expected the center-right would be a particularly strong opposition player in the next government. He mused that perhaps "our cooperation could be even stronger now." Interestingly, Letta had the exact vote tallies in advance of the Court of Cassation's announcement that was released shortly after the delegation meeting ended. ¶5. (C) Asked by Congressman Issa to speculate about new cabinet ministers, Letta joked that this was the most popular lottery game in Italy today. He said that (DS) Massimo D'Alema wanted the MFA but would probably become President of the Chamber of Deputies. Radical Party leader Emma Bonino also wanted the MFA but would be blocked by DS and the Daisy Party, so (DS) Piero Fassino was the best bet for Foreign Minister. He expected the Ministry of Interior to go to (Daisy) Francesco Rutelli. He predicted that both Fassino and Rutelli would be Deputy Prime Ministers. Iraq -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Congressman Flake noted that he had visited Italian troops in Iraq and thanked Italy for its support. Letta was genuinely appreciative, noting that Italy's role was due to Berlusconi's determination to cooperate despite domestic opposition and his friendship with President Bush. Congressman Fortuno asked how we could keep Italy engaged in our shared global initiatives in the next government. Letta reiterated that strategic and historical ties would remain strong but acknowledged there could be a few more bumps along the way, including on Iraq. On Iraq, Letta said he hoped the new leadership would be responsible and act cautiously and in accordance with allies and friends. Muslim Integration -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Responding to a question from Congressman Flake, Letta said that Italy had adopted a two-track policy with regarding to immigration and Muslim integration. The government enacted the Bossi-Fini immigration law to regularize, welcome and integrate moderate elements and worked to isolate or expel those who support violence or fanaticism. He noted that the Minister of Interior had created a Muslim Consultative Council to reach out to moderate Muslims. Letta believed Italy's policies were more successful and credible because Italy did not have the negative baggage associated with the colonial experience of France or some other nations. ¶8. (C) Comment: Meeting shortly before the official announcement confirming Prodi's center-left win, Letta was in an unusually relaxed and nostalgic mood. But Letta made it clear that Berlusconi plans to remain engaged and combative as leader of the opposition. The fact that Berlusconi has yet to officially concede is the first sign of what may be a long battle for Prodi in his efforts to form a government and stay in power. ¶9. (U) Codel Hyde has cleared this message. BORG