ITALY: CERTIFIED VOTE RESULTS EXPECTED SOON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 001162 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2016 TAGS: PGOV IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS SUBJECT: ITALY: CERTIFIED VOTE RESULTS EXPECTED SOON REF: A. ROME 1115 ¶B. ROME 1107 Classified By: Acting DCM David D. Pearce for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) A consensus is developing that the Italian Court of Cassation will issue certified election results next Tuesday, April 18, though reports that the recount could take a few days longer persist. UDC Party Secretary Lorenzo Cesa told the press that election results would not change, and FI officials have told us privately they do not expect the recount to materially affect seat assignments in parliament. Press and political commentators have begun to speculate that PM Berlusconi's push for a recount and random accusations of voting irregularities were never intended to affect the election outcome in any material way. Rather, many believe Berlusconi is simply leveraging his own advantages, and weaknesses in Prodi's coalition, to best position himself and Forza Italia for the future. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- RECOUNT FINISHED AFTER EASTER HOLIDAY: LITTLE TO CHANGE -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Consensus is building that Italy's Cassation Court will officially certify results for Italy's April 9-10 parliamentary election after the Easter holiday. Monday, April 17 is a national holiday so speculation is that results might be released on April 18. Center-left (CL) leader Romano Prodi announced April 13, "our victory will be certified in the next few days." Sources inside PM Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia (FI) party speculated to Poloff that results will be ready "before the end of next week." ¶3. (C) UDC Party Secretary Lorenzo Cesa, whose party currently is part of Berlusconi's center-right (CR) coalition, said April 13 that the recount would likely not change the results of the elections. The press cites FI sources as saying that approximately 4,000 votes have been reassigned to the CR and notes that this is far short of the 25,224 votes needed by the CR. Political commentators have overwhelmingly concluded the Cassation Court will declare that the CL obtained the majority of seats in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. Even FI sources have confided to us that they do not expect any material change in seat assignments in the two houses, though they remain hopeful. �0A; -------------- ANGLING FOR THE ADVANTAGE -------------- ¶4. (C) Press and political commentators have begun to speculate that PM Berlusconi's push for a recount and his various accusations of voting irregularities were never intended to affect the election outcome in any material way. While one FI official told Poloff that with such close results and high stakes, Berlusconi felt obligated to call for a recount, he admitted that it is mostly about Berlusconi positioning himself for the future. Another FI official was more direct: Berlusconi is trying to maximize his political leverage and ensure he has a role in picking up the pieces after a Prodi government inevitably falls. -------------- IS THE SENATE MAJORITY VIABLE? -------------- ¶5. (C) Many commentators maintain that Prodi's senate majority is not viable. With his current coalition, Prodi holds a slim 158 to 156 advantage in the Senate. One senator elected abroad remains unaligned and 5 of 7 senators for life sympathize with the CL. For purposes of obtaining a vote of confidence in the Senate, it is unclear whether the senators for life would participate. In any case, Senator for Life Francesco Cossiga has said he would switch sympathies from the CL to the CR if his peers participate in the confidence result. A President of the Senate must be elected prior to the confidence vote, and filling an institutional position, that person would not be allowed to participate in the confidence vote. Therefore, Prodi's initial Senate majority appears to be: 161-159-1 under the best of circumstances, or 157-156-1 if the senators for life abstain. -------------- EARLY DIVISIONS IN THE CENTER-LEFT -------------- ¶6. (C) Speculation already exists regarding discontent within the Democrats of the Left (DS) and the Daisy Party with how Prodi is managing the coalition. Forming the center of the center-left, these two parties apparently took umbrage when Prodi postponed a larger Union coalition meeting in order to hold a one-on-one with far-left Communist Renewal (RC) Party Secretary Fausto Bertinotti on April 12. DS President SIPDIS Massimo D'Alema has previously expressed concern that Prodi remains overly affected by Bertinotti's 1998 decision to withdraw confidence from his first administration. D'Alema is featured in a full-page interview in the April 14 issue of the Corriere della Sera in which he speaks of the need for dialogue between the two poles and does not preclude the possibility of a CR leader becoming President of the Senate. Prodi and Bertinotti have dismissed this idea publicly, and the difference in tactic is being viewed by commentators as a message from D'Alema to Prodi and Bertinotti not to sideline the coalition's largest party. ¶7. (C) A Berlusconi aide told Poloff that there are two axes within the CL: Prodi-Bertinotti and DS-Daisy. Berlusconi's tactic is to use the election recount and other strains within the CL in order to weaken the Prodi government before it is born. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Italy's political class is abuzz with chatter ranging from Prodi assuming PM of a weak government to Berlusconi blocking Prodi from ever sitting in Palazzo Chigi. It is way too early to place credence in much of this speculation. However, the mere fact that the political cognoscenti are describing his potential political demise means Prodi is playing a weak hand. END COMMENT BORG