ITALY'S POST ELECTION LOTTO-MINISTRO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 001034 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS SUBJECT: ITALY'S POST ELECTION LOTTO-MINISTRO ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Italy's April 9-10 national elections begin a political process that probably will not produce a new government until mid-May to mid-June. Presidents of the two legislative houses must be elected followed by a replacement for President of the Republic Carlo Azeglio Ciampi before the new President can ask the head of the winning coalition to form a government. If Berlusconi wins, the transition should be comparatively uneventful. If Prodi wins, the intra-coalition negotiations could be rancorous, depending on the relative strength of the leftist parties. If one coalition wins the Chamber of Deputies and the other the Senate, the government formation process could be prolonged and difficult. END SUMMARY. FIRST EIGHTEEN DAYS FULL OF HORSE TRADING -------------- ¶2. (U) Italy holds national parliamentary elections April 9-10, 2006. Parliament's first meeting is scheduled for April 28, when both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate should elect a President. The first eighteen days will be a period of intense intra-coalition negotiations in which the framework for most ministerial and sub-cabinet positions should be decided. However, the possibility of the far-left winning outsized leverage within a CL majority, or even split results between the two chambers, could prolong and intensify intra-coalition bickering. NEW PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC IN MID-MAY -------------- ¶3. (U) Within fifteen days of electing chamber presidents, the President of the Chamber of Deputies will call a joint assembly meeting to elect President Carlo Azegli Ciampi's replacement as the new President of the Republic. If all fifteen days are required for the election, a new President of the Republic might not be in place until mid-May. PM-DESIGNATE RELATIVELY FEW DAYS LATER -------------- ¶4. (U) Normally, after national elections or after a new President of the Republic is elected, the current government resigns and the President of the Republic appoints as prime minister-designate the winning coalition's candidate, who accepts with reserve. The President usually takes a few days for formal consultations before naming the PM-designate. NEW GOVERNMENT IN MID-JUNE -------------- ¶5. (SBU) When the winning coalition has agreed on a unified list of Ministers, the PM-designate will return to the President of the Republic to accept the mandate and to present the government list. The new government is appointed by presidential decree and sworn in. The government is official at this point but must pass a parliamentary vote of confidence prior to taking any significant actions. Though the most important decisions on ministerial polls will likely be decided within the first few weeks after the elections, the process of formally naming the list of ministers and other officials could last considerably longer. Opposition leader Romano Prodi previously told the Ambassador that if he wins we should not expect a new government until mid-June, though it is conceivable the process could take longer. ¶6. (U) As reported REF B, a detailed explanation of each step of the government formation process has been posted on the Embassy SIPRNET address at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/rome/index.cf m. MORE ON THE LOTTO-MINISTRO -------------- ¶7. (SBU) A significant cabinet shift is possible even if PM Berlusconi's coalition wins the elections. Nevertheless, an election result confirming the status quo would imply relatively little disruption in the functioning of the government even if we should expect coalition allies to argue forcefully in the public domain over who should take what post. ¶8. (SBU) Speculation is already intense over who will take what ministry if Prodi's coalition should win. With nine parties in his coalition, Prodi has several party leaders whose ambitions he needs to satisfy. Most observers say the real horse-trading will not begin until after the elections confirm the relative strength of each party. If Prodi wins by a slim margin and the far-left gains outsized leverage, the negotiation process could be long and publicly contentious. MORE AGGRAVATING FACTORS -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Election reform creates the possibility that a different coalition wins each chamber of the legislature. That situation could be resolved simply, if a few Senators (where the majority is likely to be slim) switch coalition loyalties in exchange for important government positions or other benefits. However, split results could block government formation and result in a "technical" government and the call for new elections. Many other scenarios are possible in the event of divided houses, but most believe Lincoln's maxim that a house divided against itself cannot stand--for very long. ¶10. (SBU) Important administrative elections are scheduled for May 28 in which the mayors for Rome, Milan, Naples, Turn and other major cities will be elected. National elections in April will usher in many changes regardless of who wins, and the May 28 local elections will mark an early target for coalition jumping. Moreover, it will keep political tensions high. A NOTE ON TITLE/STATUS DURING TRANSITION -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Berlusconi remains President of the Council of Ministers and head of government until he officially resigns and should be referred to as such throughout that period. He will remain head of a caretaker government until he or a replacement is sworn in as the next PM. Should Berlusconi win the elections, any official congratulations should be in reference to him having led the coalition that won the majority of seats in the two chambers. Only after the President of the Republic designates him as PM-designate can we congratulate him as the probable next PM, and only after he has gained a vote of confidence from parliament is it official. The situation would be analogous if Prodi's coalition wins the elections. COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (SBU) COMMENT: Given Italy's April 9-10 elections are still up for grabs, it remains impossible to predict the pace of post-election government formation. No matter who wins, we should expect high-voltage rhetoric. In the event of a change in government from center-right to center-left, we should expect about six weeks of a lame duck administration, before a Prodi-led government can be properly installed. END COMMENT. SPOGLI