THE NEW SUCCESSION LAW PRESERVES THE MONARCHY

C O N F I D E N T I A L RIYADH 008921 SIPDIS SIPDIS NEA FOR ASWELCH, JJEFFERIES, SCARPENTER, GGRAY, KMALLORY POLICY PLANNING FOR KRASNER WHITE HOUSE FOR OVP, JOHN HANNAH, STEVEN HADLEY NSC FOR MIKE DORNAN, NICH RANCHAMD BAGHDAD FOR RULE OF LAW ADVISOR ROBERT MURPHY E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SA SUBJECT: THE NEW SUCCESSION LAW PRESERVES THE MONARCHY WHILE REDUCING THE KING'S PREROGATIVES REF: A. RIYADH 6818 ¶B. SECSTATE 181995 CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL COUNSELOR DAVID H RUNDELL FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: A SUCCESSION STRUGGLE AMONG THE AL SAUD FAMILY HAS LONG BEEN ONE OF THE GREATEST THREATS TO SAUDI ARABIA'S STABILITY. THE FIRST TWO SAUDI STATES COLLAPSED PARTIALLY AS A RESULT OF SUCCESSION PROBLEMS. FOLLOWING THE DEATH OF KING ABDULAZIZ IN 1953, A FIERCE POWER STRUGGLE AMONG HIS SENIOR SONS NEARLY DESTROYED THE THIRD SAUDI STATE. KING ABDULLAH HAS NOW CREATED AN ALLEGIANCE COMMISSION TO MORE SMOOTHLY TRANSFER POWER WITHIN THE RULING FAMILY. UNDER THE NEW SYSTEM, A COUNCIL, NOT A KING, WILL CHOSE THE NEXT RULER, VOTING WILL BE DONE BY SECRET BALLOT, AND TALENT -- NOT AGE -- WILL BE THE PRINCIPAL QUALIFICATION FOR THE THRONE. THE PRIMARY PURPOSE OF THE ALLEGIANCE COMMISSION IS TO PRESERVE THE RULE OF THE AL SAUD. HOWEVER, LIKE THE BASIC LAW OF 1992, WHICH SERVES AS THE COUNTRY'S FIRST WRITTEN CONSTITUTION, AND THE APPOINTED MAJLIS AL SHOURA, WHICH SERVES A RUDIMENTARY PARLIAMENT, THE ALLEGIANCE COMMISSION IS ALSO A SMALL STEP TOWARDS MORE INSTITUTIONALIZED AND PARTICIPATORY GOVERNMENT. END SUMMARY. -------------- WHO ARE THE AL SAUD? -------------- ¶2. (U) SAUDI ARABIA IS LIKE THE FORD MOTOR COMPANY. THE FAMILY NAME IS ON THE DOOR. IT IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD CREATED BY AND NAMED FOR A FAMILY. THE AL SAUD HAVE RULED IN CENTRAL ARABIA FOR OVER 250 YEARS. THREE TIMES THEY HAVE CREATED STATES THAT CONTROLLED MOST OF THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. DURING THE FIRST 30 YEARS OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY, KING ABDULAZIZ BIN ABDULRAHMAN BIN FAISAL BIN TURKI AL SAUD, WHO WAS OFTEN KNOWN AS IBN SAUD, CREATED THE CURRENT KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA. HE WELDED TOGETHER BY MILITARY CONQUEST NUMEROUS DISTINCT REGIONS, INCLUDING THE NEJD, HIJAZ, ASSIR, AND AL HASSA, AS WELL AS VARIOUS TRIBAL CONFEDERATIONS SUCH AS THE UTAIBAH, AJMAN, MUTAIR, AND QAHTAN. ¶3. (U) IN ADDITION TO MILITARY CONQUEST, KING ABDULAZIZ ADOPTED A STRATEGY FOR NATION BUILDING BASED ON AN ACTIVE POLICY OF SERIAL POLYGAMY. THE KING HAD NUMEROUS WIVES, 36 SONS, AND EVEN MORE DAUGHTERS. HE MARRIED INTO MANY OF THE MOST POWERFUL TRIBES OF THE PENINSULA. FOR EXAMPLE, HIS SONS -- KING SAUD AND KING ABDULLAH -- HAD MOTHERS FROM THE BANI KHALID AND SHAMMAR TRIBES, WHICH WERE DOMINANT IN THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE KINGDOM RESPECTIVELY. IMMEDIATELY AFTER HE RECAPTURED RIYADH IN 1903, KING ABDULAZIZ AND TWO OF HIS BROTHERS EACH MARRIED INTO THE COUNTRY'S LEADING RELIGIOUS FAMILY, THE AL SHAIKH. KING FAISAL'S MOTHER WAS FROM THE AL SHAIKH. KING ABDULAZIZ, HIS BROTHERS, AND HIS SONS HAVE ALL MARRIED INTO THE CADET BRANCHES OF THE AL SAUD SUCH AS THE SAUD AL KABIR, THUNIYAN, FARHAN, AND BIN JILLUWI. KING KHALID'S MOTHER WAS FROM THE BIN JILLUWI. FINALLY, KING ABDULAZIZ, HIS BROTHERS, AND HIS SONS MARRIED INTO PROMINENT NEJDI FAMILIES SUCH AS THE SUDAYRIS. KING FAHAD, CROWN PRINCE SULTAN, AND MANY OTHER SENIOR PRINCES HAD SUDAYRI MOTHERS. ¶4. (C) THESE MARRIAGES WERE NOT ALLIANCES BETWEEN EQUALS OR EVEN NEAR EQUALS. WHILE AL SAUD MEN CAN MARRY INTO PROMINENT TRIBES AND FAMILIES, AL SAUD WOMEN STAY IN THE AL SAUD FAMILY. THIS ONE-WAY STREET SLOWLY BUILT UP THE AL SAUD ALONE INTO A SORT OF SUPER TRIBE AND THE NATION'S ONLY TRULY NATIONAL INSTITUTION. TODAY, ALL MINISTRIES THAT DEAL WITH INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL SECURITY, AS WELL AS ALL OF THE 13 PROVINCIAL GOVERNORSHIPS, ARE IN THE HANDS OF AL SAUD PRINCES. BECAUSE THE KINGDOM'S POLITICAL LEADERSHIP WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITHIN THE AL SAUD FAMILY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, BOTH THE UNITY AND STABILITY OF THE COUNTRY DEPEND ON FINDING AN ACCEPTABLE MECHANISM FOR RESOLVING INTRA-FAMILY SUCCESSION DISPUTES. -------------- THE OLD SYSTEM -------------- ¶5. (U) ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE GENERALLY SOUGHT ADVICE FROM FAMILY MEMBERS, SAUDI KINGS HAVE CHOSEN THEIR OWN SUCCESSORS. KING ABDULAZIZ CHOSE HIS TWO ELDEST SONS, SAUD AND FAISAL, TO FOLLOW HIM AS KING AND CROWN PRINCE. KING FAISAL CHOSE HIS BROTHER KHALID TO BE CROWN PRINCE, AS WELL AS DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER, AND THEN CREATED THE NEW POSITION OF SECOND DEPUTY PRIME MINSTER FOR HIS BROTHER FAHAD. KING FAHAD CHOSE HIS BROTHERS ABDULLAH AND SULTAN TO BE CROWN PRINCE AND SECOND DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER. THIS PROCEDURE WAS MADE EXPLICIT IN ARTICLE 5, SECTION C OF THE BASIC LAW OF 1992, WHICH STATES, "THE KING SHALL APPOINT OR REMOVE THE CROWN PRINCE BY A ROYAL DECREE." . ¶6. (C) SELECTION OF A FUTURE KING HAS BEEN BASED ON SEVERAL FACTORS. FOREMOST AMONG THESE WAS SENIORITY AMONG KING ABDULAZIZ'S SONS, BUT THIS WAS NOT ALWAYS DECISIVE. MOHAMMED WAS SKIPPED FOR KHALID. NASSER AND SAAD WERE SKIPPED FOR FAHAD. THERE ARE THREE LIVING BROTHERS -- BANDAR, MUSAAD, AND MISH'AL -- BETWEEN KING ABDULLAH AND CROWN PRINCE SULTAN. SUCCESSFUL GOVERNMENT SERVICE, ESPECIALLY IN THE MILITARY, AS A MINISTER, OR AS A PROVINCIAL GOVERNOR, HAS BEEN IMPORTANT. KING SAUD AND KING FAISAL WERE OLD ENOUGH TO HAVE FOUGHT IN THEIR FATHER'S CAMPAIGNS TO UNIFY THE COUNTRY. FAISAL LATER SERVED AS VICEROY TO THE HIJAZ AND FOREIGN MINISTER. BEFORE BECOMING THE CROWN PRINCE, KING FAHAD SERVED AS MINISTER OF EDUCATION AND MINISTER OF INTERIOR. KING ABDULLAH AND CROWN PRINCE SULTAN ARE RESPECTIVELY THE LONG-SERVING COMMANDER OF THE NATIONAL GUARD AND MINISTER OF DEFENSE. ¶7. (C) IT WAS ALSO IMPORTANT NOT TO HAVE DONE ANYTHING SHAMEFUL. WHILE GOVERNOR OF RIYADH, NASSER BIN ABDULAZIZ HOSTED A PARTY AFTER WHICH HIS BROTHER MANSOUR AND SEVERAL FOREIGNERS DIED OF ALCOHOL POISONING. NASSER LOST HIS JOB AND NEVER RETURNED TO PUBLIC LIFE. MOHAMMED BIN ABDULAZIZ WAS KNOWN AS ABU SHARAIN (THE FATHER OF TWO EVILS),WHICH WAS A REFERENCE TO HIS VIOLENT TEMPER AND DRINKING. MOHAMMED ORDERED THE EXECUTION OF HIS OWN GRANDDAUGHTER IN THE FAMOUS "DEATH OF A PRINCESS" EPISODE. HE GOT AWAY WITH IT, BUT THE INCIDENT COST HIM THE THRONE, WHICH PASSED TO HIS YOUNGER BROTHER KHALID. FINALLY, THE LINEAGE OF A PRINCE'S MOTHER AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HIS WIVES WAS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. -------------- THE NEW SYSTEM -------------- ¶8. (U) ON OCTOBER 20, KING ABDULLAH ANNOUNCED CHANGES TO THE "BASIC LAW," ESSENTIALLY SAUDI ARABIA'S CONSTITUTION, THAT WILL GOVERN THE SELECTION OF FUTURE KINGS. THE ANNOUNCEMENT CAME AS A ROYAL DECREE, THE HIGHEST FORM OF LEGISLATION IN THE KINGDOM. THE NEW REGULATIONS CREATE A BODY KNOWN AS THE ALLEGIANCE COMMISSION, WHICH WILL HAVE ULTIMATE AUTHORITY FOR DETERMINING THE LINE OF SUCCESSION. MEMBERSHIP ON THE COMMISSION IS COMPRISED OF THE LIVING SONS OF THE KINGDOM'S FOUNDER ABDULAZIZ BIN ABDULRAHMAN AL SAUD, ONE SON FROM EACH OF THE FOUNDERS DECEASED SONS, AND ONE SON OF BOTH THE CURRENT KING AND CROWN PRINCE. THE KING WILL SELECT WHICH GRANDSONS OF ABDULAZIZ JOIN THE COMMISSION. THE KING IS NOT A MEMBER OF THE COMMISSION. ONLY THE COMMISSION ITSELF, NOT A FUTURE KING, CAN NOW CHANGE THE SUCCESSION LAW. THE FULL SUCCESSION LAW HAS BEEN WIDELY PUBLICIZED AND IS PROVIDED IN SEPTEL. ¶9. (U) BRIEFLY, A NEW CROWN PRINCE MUST BE SELECTED WITHIN 30 DAYS OF A NEW KINGS ASCENSION FROM AMONG THE MEMBERS OF THE ALLEGIANCE COMMISSION. THE KING INITIALLY PROPOSES SEVERAL NAMES TO THE COMMISSION, WHICH ATTEMPTS TO ACCEPT ONE BY CONSENSUS. IF THIS IS NOT POSSIBLE, THE COMMISSION PROPOSES TO THE KING AN ALTERNATIVE. SHOULD THE KING REJECT THIS PROPOSAL, ULTIMATE AUTHORITY TO CHOSE THE NEXT CROWN PRINCE FALLS TO THE COMMISSION. THE COMMISSION MUST VOTE -- BY SECRET BALLOT -- ON ITS CANDIDATE, AS WELL AS THOSE PROPOSED BY THE KING. IF CONSENSUS CAN NOT BE REACHED, A SIMPLE MAJORITY IS NEEDED TO WIN. THE OLDEST PRINCE PRESENT WILL PRESIDE AS CHAIRMAN OF THE COMMISSION. A SECRETARY GENERAL WILL BE APPOINTED BY THE KING AND THE FIRST ONE WILL BE CHIEF OF THE ROYAL DIWAN KHALID AL TUWAJERI. A WRITTEN RECORD WILL BE KEPT OF THE COMMISSION'S DISCUSSIONS AND SOMEDAY MAY EVEN BE PUBLISHED. THE CURRENT KING AND CROWN PRINCE ARE GRANDFATHERED IN AND NOT SUBJECT TO REVIEW BY THE COMMISSION. HOWEVER, IF CROWN PRINCE SULTAN DIES BEFORE KING ABDULLAH, THE COMMISSION, NOT THE KING, WILL SELECT THE NEW CROWN PRINCE. ¶10. (U) THE ALLEGIANCE COMMISSION CAN SUMMON A MEDICAL COMMITTEE TO DETERMINE IF A KING OR CROWN PRINCE IS ABLE TO RULE. THE MEMBERSHIP OF THE MEDICAL COMMITTEE INCLUDES, AMONG OTHERS, THE COURT PHYSICIAN AND THE DEANS OF THREE SAUDI MEDICAL SCHOOLS. A KING AND OR CROWN PRINCE CAN BE DECLARED MEDICALLY UNFIT EITHER TEMPORARILY OR PERMANENTLY. IF BOTH A KING AND HIS CROWN PRINCE ARE DETERMINED TO BE UNFIT TO RULE, OR THEY SOMEHOW DIE AT THE SAME TIME, THE COMMISSION WILL FORM A FIVE-MEMBER TRANSITORY RULING COUNCIL TO LEAD THE KINGDOM FOR A MAXIMUM OF ONE WEEK UNTIL THE FULL COMMISSION SELECTS A NEW MONARCH. THIS TRANSITORY RULING COUNCIL WILL NOT HAVE POWERS TO AMEND THE BASIC LAW, DISSOLVE THE GOVERNMENT, OR CHANGE THE RULING INFRASTRUCTURES IN ANY WAY. ITS ONLY PURPOSE IS TO MANAGE THE COUNTRY UNTIL A NEW MONARCH IS SELECTED. -------------- THE WINNERS -------------- ¶11. (C) CROWN PRINCE SULTAN HAS PUBLICLY GIVEN CREDIT FOR THE ALLEGIANCE COMMISSION TO KING ABDULLAH, AND THE NEW SUCCESSION LAW HAS CLEARLY INCREASED THE KING'S ALREADY WIDESPREAD POPULARITY. CROWN PRINCE SULTAN HIMSELF IS ALSO A WINNER. UNDER THE OLD SYSTEM, KING ABDULLAH COULD HAVE -- AT LEAST THEORETICALLY -- REPLACED PRINCE SULTAN WITH A CROWN PRINCE OF HIS OWN, NOT KING FAHAD'S, CHOOSING. SULTAN HAS NOW BEEN CONFIRMED IN HIS POSITION. WITHIN THE REST OF THE RULING FAMILY, TALENT RATHER THAN SENIORITY HAS BECOME THE KEY DETERMINANT OF KINGSHIP. MANY YOUNGER SONS AND EVEN GRANDSONS OF KING ABDULAZIZ NOW HAVE A REALISTIC POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING KING. DESCENDANTS OF DECEASED SONS OF ABDULAZIZ HAVE SEEN THEIR LINES FORMALLY RESTORED TO EQUAL STATUS WITH THE SURVIVING SONS OF THE FOUNDER. LIKEWISE, DESCENDANTS OF PREVIOUSLY OSTRACIZED SONS SUCH AS MISHARI BIN ABDULAZIZ, WHO KILLED A BRITISH DIPLOMAT, OR SAAD BIN ABDULAZIZ, WHOSE SON ASSASSINATED KING FAISAL, NOW HAVE AN EQUAL VOTE WITH EVERYONE ELSE ON THE COMMISSION. ¶12. (C) THESE NEW ARRANGEMENTS GIVE A PARTICULAR BOOST TO THOSE GRANDSONS OF KING ABDULAZIZ WHO ALREADY HOLD SENIOR POSITIONS AND WHOSE FATHERS WERE AMONG THE FORMER KING'S ELDER SONS. THESE GRANDSONS INCLUDE: MOHAMMED BIN SAUD GOVERNOR OF BAHA MISHAL BIN SAUD GOVERNOR OF NAJRAN KHALID BIN FAISAL GOVERNOR OF THE ASSIR SAUD BIN FAISAL FOREIGN MINISTER TURKI BIN FAISAL AMBASSADOR TO THE U.S. MOHAMMED BIN FAHAD GOVERNOR OF THE EASTERN PROVINCE FAISAL BIN BANDAR GOVERNOR OF QASSIM MITAB BIN ABDULLAH DEPUTY COMMANDER OF THE SAUDI NATIONAL GUARD KHALID BIN SULTAN DEPUTY MINISTER OF DEFENSE FAHAD BIN SULTAN GOVERNOR OF TABUK BANDAR BIN SULTAN NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR MOHAMMED BIN NAIF ASSISTANT MINISTER OF INTERIOR ABDULAZIZ BIN SALMAN DEPUTY MINISTER OF PETROLEUM ¶13. (C) THE KINGDOM'S PROCESS OF GRADUAL POLITICAL EVOLUTION IS ALSO A WINNER. THE SHOURA COUNCIL, ITSELF PART OF THAT PROCESS, CONGRATULATED THE KING ON THE NEW SUCCESSION LAW. IT DECLARED THAT "THE ALLEGIANCE COMMISSION IS A FURTHER STEP IN THE PROCESS OF POLITICAL REFORMS INITIATED BY KING ABDULLAH AND HIS CROWN PRINCE." SHOURRA COUNCIL CHAIRMAN DR. SALIH BIN ABDULLAH BIN HUMAID SAID IN A PRESS INTERVIEW THAT, "THE SYSTEM, WITH ITS COHERENT ARTICLES BASED ON THE QU'RAN AND THE DEEDS AND SAYINGS OF THE PROPHET MOHAMMED, GIVES MORE STABILITY TO GOVERNMENT AND SMOOTHES THE TRANSITION OF POWER, WHICH WILL LEAD TO COMPLETING THE CONSTITUTIONAL PROJECT." ¶14. (C) NEARLY ALL OF OUR CONTACTS AGREE WITH THIS POSITIVE ASSESSMENT. THE NEW COMMISSION IS WIDELY SEEN AS A STEP TOWARDS POLITICAL REFORM, GREATER STABILITY, AND THE REPLACEMENT OF PERSONAL RULE WITH INSTITUTIONS. PEOPLE ARE PLEASED THAT A COMMONER, KHALID AL TUWAJERI, WILL HAVE UNPRECEDENTED ACCESS TO RULING FAMILY COUNCILS. BUSINESSMEN BELIEVE THAT GREATER CERTAINTY WILL ENCOURAGE INVESTMENT. LIBERALS HOPE THAT WITH THE SUCCESSION ISSUES RESOLVED, KING ABDULLAH WILL NOW TURN TO OTHER POLITICAL REFORMS. TO THE EXTENT THAT A STABLE SAUDI ARABIA IS IN OUR NATIONAL INTEREST, THE UNITED STATES IS ALSO A WINNER. -------------- THE LOSERS -------------- ¶15. (C) SENIORITY IS NO LONGER THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN SUCCESSION AND THE KING NO LONGER CHOOSES HIS OWN HEIR. PRINCE MISH'AL BIN ABDULAZIZ, PRINCE ABDULRAHMAN BIN ABDULAZIZ AND PRINCE NAIF BIN ABDULAZIZ ARE PROBABLY NOT HAPPY WITH THESE NEW ARRANGEMENTS. THREE LIVING BROTHERS ARE YOUNGER THAN THE KING, BUT OLDER THAN THE CROWN PRINCE. TWO ARE IN POOR HEALTH. MISH'AL, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS FIT AND HAS SERVED AS BOTH A GOVERNOR AND A MINISTER. HE HAS PROTESTED MORE THAN ONCE THAT HE SHOULD HAVE BEEN CROWN PRINCE. THAT NOW SEEMS EVEN MORE UNLIKELY. HE WILL, HOWEVER, BE WELL COMPENSATED FOR HIS BIRTHRIGHT. IT IS NOT A COINCIDENCE THAT MISH'AL INTERNATIONAL, ALONG WITH ITS GERMAN AND CHINESE PARTNERS, IS NOW THE LEADING CONTENDER TO BUILD MUCH OF THE KINGDOM'S NEW MULTI-BILLION DOLLAR RAILWAY SYSTEM. ABDULRAHMAN BIN ABDULAZIZ IS A FULL BROTHER OF SULTAN BIN ABUDULAZIZ AND THE NEXT YOUNGER BROTHER AFTER THE CROWN PRINCE. HE CERTAINLY THOUGHT HE WAS NEXT IN LINE. LIKEWISE, INTERIOR MINISTER PRINCE NAIF BIN ABDULAZIZ HAD HOPPED TO BE NAMED SECOND DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AT SOME POINT. THAT POSITION NO LONGER EXISTS. MORE IMPORTANTLY, NAIF HAD COUNTED ON HIS FULL BROTHERS, SULTAN OR ABDULRAHMAN, BEING ABLE TO CHOOSE THEIR OWN CROWN PRINCE ONCE THEY BECAME KING. WITH THAT DECISION NOW IN THE HANDS OF THE ALLEGIANCE COMMISSION, NAIF HAS LOST THE INSIDE TRACK TO THE THRONE. ¶16. (C) THE TEN LIVING SONS OF SUDAIRI MOTHERS REMAIN THE LARGEST SINGLE BLOCK ON THE COMMISSION, BUT THEY ARE NO LONGER PLACED TO RULE FOR YEARS TO COME. HOWEVER, SOME OBSERVERS BELIEVE THAT RIYADH GOVERNOR SALMAN BIN ABUDLAZIZ -- ANOTHER FULL BROTHER OF CROWN PRINCE SULTAN -- IS WELL ENOUGH RESPECTED TO ACTUALLY WIN ELECTION BY THE COMMISSION. CADET BRANCHES OF THE RULING FAMILY HAVE BEEN FURTHER MARGINALIZED, AS HAS THE FULL FAMILY COUNCIL. THE DAUGHTERS AND GRANDDAUGHTERS OF KING ABDULAZIZ HAVE NOT GAINED ANY NEW AUTHORITY. ¶17. (C) WELL INFORMED SOURCES REPORT THAT INITIAL DRAFTS OF THE NEW LAW GAVE BOTH THE GRAND MUFTI OF SAUDI ARABIA, ABDULAZIZ AL-SHAIKH, AND THE CHAIRMAN OF THE MAJLIS AL SHOURA, SALIH BIN HUMAID, VOTING RIGHTS ON THE COMMISSION. THIS DID NOT HAPPEN. A LACK OF NON-ROYALS ON THE COMMISSION HAS BEEN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CRITICISM WE HAVE HEARD OF THE NEW SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT WHILE THE MAJLIS AL SHOURA IS OFTEN VIEWED AS A FORUM FOR WESTERN EDUCATED, PROGRESSIVE TECHNOCRATS, THE CHAIRMAN OF THE COUNCIL IS ALSO AN IMAM OF THE PROPHET'S MOSQUE IN MEDINAH AND A MEMBER OF THE SUPREME COUNCIL OF RELIGIOUS SCHOLARS. THUS, BOTH POTENTIAL NON-ROYAL NOMINEES FOR THE COMMISSION WERE, IN FACT, SENIOR MEMBERS OF THE ULEMAH. IT IS THE RELIGIOUS ESTABLISHMENT, MORE THAN HOPEFUL DEMOCRATS, WHO WERE DISAPPOINTED. SOME SAUDIS HAVE INTERPRETED THIS AS A SUBTLE SHIFT AWAY FROM THE HISTORIC PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE AL SAUD AND THE RELIGIOUS ESTABLISHMENT. WE DOUBT THAT, BUT IT IS CLEAR THAT THE ULEMAH WAS NOT GIVEN A FORMAL ROLE IN SELECTING FUTURE SAUDI KINGS. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶18. (C) SAUDI ARABIA IS THE LAST STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT, TRADITIONAL MONARCHY ON THE PLANET. IN MANY WAYS, THE COUNTRY REMAINS A FEUDAL ASSEMBLAGE OF TRIBES AND REGIONS. THE ARABIC NAME FOR THE NEW COMMISSION IS HIMAYAT AL BA'YA. BA'YA IS TRANSLATED AS A PERSONAL OATH OF ALLEGIANCE GIVEN TO A RULER ON BEHALF OF ONESELF OR ONE'S TRIBE. WHEN THE KING VISITED THE SOUTHERN PROVINCE OF NAJRAN IN EARLY NOVEMBER, DOZENS OF TRIBAL AND COMMUNITY LEADERS RENEWED THEIR PLEDGES OF ALLEGIANCE TO ABDULLAH BIN ABDULAZIZ AL SAUD AND DID SO ON NATIONAL TELEVISION. REFERRING TO KING ABDULAZIZ'S INCORPORATION OF NAJRAN INTO HIS KINGDOM 70 YEARS AGO, KING ABDULLAH SAID, "MY FATHER MADE A PACT WITH YOUR GRANDFATHERS AND I INTEND TO KEEP IT." ¶19. (C) THE NEW SUCCESSION LAW IS NOT INTENDED TO CHANGE THE PERSONAL NATURE OF RULE IN SAUDI ARABIA. ITS PRIMARY GOAL IS TO AVOID SUCCESSION CONFLICTS THAT COULD THREATEN THE SAUDI STATE, PARTICULARLY AT A TIME WHEN MANY SENIOR PRINCES ARE AGING AND REGIONAL THREATS TO THE REGIME ARE GROWING. THE NEW SYSTEM IS CLEARLY DESIGNED TO EASE THE PASSAGE OF POWER FROM THE SONS OF KING ABDULAZIZ TO HIS MOST TALENTED GRANDSONS, NOT TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC. ¶20. (C) HOWEVER, SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARDS MORE INSTITUTIONALIZED AND PARTICIPATORY GOVERNMENT IS EVIDENT. THERE ARE SOME BASIC CHECKS AND BALANCES IN THE NEW SYSTEM. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ALLEGIANCE COMMISSION NOW HAS FINAL AUTHORITY FOR CHOOSING A CROWN PRINCE, BUT THE KING CHOOSES ALL NEW MEMBERS OF THE COMMISSION. ROYAL AUTHORITY HAS BEEN DILUTED AND THE NUMBER OF PRINCES WITH A FORMALLY RECOGNIZED ROLE IN SELECTING THEIR LEADER HAS INCREASED. GIVING COMMONERS A VOTE IN THE PROCESS WAS SERIOUSLY DISCUSSED. COMPLAINTS ARE FROM THOSE WHO SAY THE FRANCHISE WAS NOT EXPANDED ENOUGH, NOT FROM ANYONE WHO IS UPSET THAT THE KING IS NOW A BIT LESS OF AN ABSOLUTE MONARCH. IN SHORT, KING ABDULLAH HAS IMPLEMENTED A SIGNIFICANT POLITICAL CHANGE THAT PLEASED MOST PRINCES AND MOST COMMONERS. IT IS A REMARKABLE ACHIEVEMENT THAT HAS PROBABLY EXTENDED AL SAUD RULE WELL INTO THIS CENTURY. END COMMENT. OBERWETTER