RENEWED STIRRINGS OF POLITICAL OPPOSITION ACTIVITY

S E C R E T RIYADH 006472 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KISL SA SUBJECT: RENEWED STIRRINGS OF POLITICAL OPPOSITION ACTIVITY REF: A. A) RIYADH 6372 ¶B. B) 05 RIYADH 6514 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Michel Gfoeller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On August 9, Dr. Saad al-Faqih, leader of the London-based, Saudi opposition group, Movement for Islamic Reform in Arabia (MIRA),called for Kingdom-wide political demonstrations to be held on Friday August 11 immediately prior to Friday prayers (Ref A). Al-Faqih, a Saudi dissident and al-Qaeda supporter living in exile in London, claimed on his television station that in response to his call there was a moderate turnout in Saudi Arabia, although there was no sign of its success in Riyadh or anywhere in the local media and on conservative websites. Irrespective of the success of the protests, al-Faqih's ability to issue a number of public statements since the start of the Lebanon crisis as well as renew calls for political demonstrations may portend a rise in opposition activity in the Kingdom. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) MIRA's London-based satellite television channel, Al-Islah, carried a live broadcasting on August 11 of al-Faqih criticizing the Saudi government. During his speech, he focused on MIRA's call for political gatherings at the Saudi mosques and stated that "the response is modest and does not match our aspirations." He continued, "we want the area to be packed with reformists." Commenting on the low level of attendance, he condemned his "brothers" for the low turnout, but commended his "sisters" for their higher turnout. Al-Faqih also announced that a new proposal for increased activities will be released in the coming two to three weeks. According to Riyadh sources who attended the Friday sermon at the specified Sulayman al-Rajihi mosque, there were no indications of any political gatherings by members of MIRA. The Friday sermon proceeded on time and with normal attendance, and there were no signs of overt demonstrations, calls for protest or police interference. ¶3. (C) Al-Faqih's return to the airwaves and internet indicates increased activism and a renewed availability of resources to MIRA. On December 23, 2004, al-Faqih was designated by the U.S. and U.K. governments as a financial supporter of al-Qaeda. (Note: On December 24, 2004, under United Nations Order 2001, the Bank of England froze MIRA's assets based on "reasonable grounds for suspecting that the organization is acting on behalf of Saad al-Faqih, who was listed by the U.N. as an associate of al-Qaeda on December 23, 2004." Subsequently, on July 15, 2005, the U.N. 1267 Committee designated MIRA for providing support to al-Qaeda, based upon the earlier designation of Saad al-Faqih. End Note.) Immediately following the July 7, 2005 terrorist attacks in London, the British government shut down the MIRA website, radio station, and satellite television channel (Ref B). For the next year, MIRA's public face diminished. However, since the beginning of the Lebanon crisis, MIRA, through the leadership of al-Faqih, has reclaimed its voice in the public sphere. It has reopened its website, albeit under a different domain name (www.islah.tv),and it has relaunched its satellite television channel, "Al-Islah Television." Since its resources are still limited, the television station broadcasts live for only 3 hours daily, and then airs taped broadcasts throughout the remainder of the day. ¶4. (C) Al-Faqih's live broadcasts in recent weeks highlighted the recent demonstrations in the Eastern Province in protest of the Lebanon crisis, and called for increased activities in the Kingdom under the banner of MIRA. Commenting on the demonstrations, he stated, "the state was forced to accept it," and noted that the protesters were "brandishing slogans that were at odds with the state's official stance." He further stated that support for Hizballah during the demonstrations "is no less important than opposing the state." Al-Faqih claimed to have delayed his own call for demonstrations, as he planned to utilize the increasing opposition to the SAG's reaction to the Lebanon crisis as fuel for his own cause. ¶5. (S) COMMENT: Although its assets were frozen, it appears that MIRA may have recently identified new resources in order to revitalize its opposition campaign to the SAG. It is unclear whether MIRA will enjoy increased public awareness and participation in its efforts. Nevertheless, the timing of its attempts is a possible indication of renewed opposition activity. The last time that al-Faqih attempted to drain support from the Al Saud family in late 2004, he appealed to the tribes, one of the vital pillars of the regime's support. Currently, by calling for demonstrations at mosques, he is attempting to utilize the second pillar of the regime's support, the religious population, to undermine the SAG's authority. Al-Faqih is trying to use subversive tactics to strike at the heart of the Al Saud power structure, which rests largely on tribal and religious foundations. Al-Faqih is an intelligent and sophisticated opponent of the SAG, who has repeatedly demonstrated his staying power, although his ultimate effectiveness is open to question. END COMMENT. OBERWETTER