The rules for Latvia's October 7 parliamentary elections

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000761 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM LG SUBJECT: The rules for Latvia's October 7 parliamentary elections Ref: Riga 584 RIGA 00000761 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. Summary. Latvia will hold its fifth post-Soviet elections to the Saeima, the 100-member parliament, on Saturday, October 7. The country uses a modified proportional representation system and any party that collects at least five percent of votes cast nationally wins seats in the Saeima. Out of nineteen parties competing, five to eight parties will probably be represented in a fragmented parliament, with no single party likely to win more than 25 or so seats. End summary. ¶2. Latvia will hold parliamentary elections on Saturday, October 7. This is the first in a series of cables on the elections and looks at the rules of the game. ¶3. All citizens of Latvia who are at least 18 years old have the right to vote except for prisoners and those legally deemed to be mentally incapacitated. There are some 1.4 million voters in Latvia now. Approximately seventy-eight percent of eligible voters are ethnic Latvians; most of the remainder (slightly less than twenty percent of all voters) are ethnic Russians. ¶4. Any citizen of Latvia who is at least 21 years old can run for the Saeima except for members of several categories spelled out in the election law. In addition to prisoners and the mentally incapacitated, the exceptions include: current or former staff members of secret, intelligence and counter-intelligence services of the former USSR, the Latvian SSR or foreign countries and persons who continued to be active in the Soviet Communist party or other pro-Soviet organizations after January 13, 1991. Former KGB informers and collaborators are not barred from standing for parliament. ¶5. Nineteen separate political parties submitted candidate lists for the elections. Latvia has strict campaign spending laws that limit any one party's expenditures to 280,000 Lats (roughly USD 500,000) for the campaign. This has led to some creative financing schemes somewhat akin to soft money expenditures in the U.S. (reftel). Voters may pick one list and make changes within that list only by adding "plus" signs or crossing out names. ¶6. Members are chosen from five electoral districts, corresponding to the four regions of Latvia (Kurzeme, Zemgale, Vidzeme and Latgale) with an additional district for the capital, Riga. Based on population numbers, seats have been assigned to each district: Riga - 29, Kurzeme (western Latvia) - 14, Zemgale (central Latvia) - 15, Vidzeme (northeastern Latvia) - 26, Latgale (southeastern Latvia) - 16. Candidates need not reside in the district where they campaign. Moreover, parties are free (and most parties choose) to run some of their leading candidates in more than one district. Citizens are not obliged to vote in the constituency where they reside and some parties will bus voters to other districts where they think they may benefit from some additional votes. That is a perfectly legal practice. ¶7. Seats are allocated within each district on the basis of proportional representation among those parties which receive more than five-percent of the vote nationwide. The seat allocation is calculated within each constituency using a complex system considered to be weighted slightly in favor of major parties. Experience in the previous elections showed that the number of seats for each faction roughly corresponded to the percentage of votes received plus a share of the votes "wasted" on those parties that did not clear the five-percent barrier. We expect by Sunday October 8 to have a pretty good idea of which patries have been elected to parliament and how many seats each will receive. ¶8. While voters can only choose one party list, they can show preference or distaste for individual candidates on their chosen party list by marking a plus by the names of candidates they favor, or crossing out the ones they do not like. Once the electoral commission calculates how many seats each candidate list has won in each of the five electoral districts, voter preferences will help determine which candidates actually get the seats. The sequence of candidates on each list will ultimately be based on the number of that party's supporters either adding a "plus" or crossing out candidates' names. ¶9. Final results from the election, including which specific candidates have been elected, may take as long as two weeks. President Vaira Vike-Freiberga then has the constitutional responsibility for nominating one individual to try to set up a new government that he/she would head as prime minister. The president is not required to choose the leader of the largest faction but is normally expected to allow the winners to take the first shot at forming a cabinet. ¶10. The new Saeima will first meet on November 7 to begin considering organizational matters (election of a speaker, etc.) as well as the proposed new government. The current Saeima can continue to meet as a lame duck legislature until that time and is likely to do so. The proposed new government then requires approval from an absolute majority of those present and voting before it can RIGA 00000761 002.2 OF 002 take office. Until a new team is in place, the current center-right minority government led by Prime Minister Aigars Kalvitis will remain in a caretaker capacity. BAILEY