DAS KRAMER TALKS BELARUS, MOLDOVA AND RUSSIA WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L RIGA 000619

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID RS MD BO LG
SUBJECT: DAS KRAMER TALKS BELARUS, MOLDOVA AND RUSSIA WITH
LATVIA


Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Tamir Waser, Reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)


1. (C) Summary: In a productive series of meetings in Riga
July 24, DAS David Kramer discussed Belarus, Moldova and
Russia with key Latvian officials. Latvia is closely
watching Belarus' relations with Russia and trying to improve
people to people contacts. NGO representatives who work with
Belarus believe that the internet is an underutilized tool
for getting information into Belarus, especially to the
younger generation. Latvia wants to increase its engagement
in Moldova and use its own post-Soviet experience to help
Moldova move closer to Europe. The GOL feels that recent
small steps in its relations with Russia are due to the EU
and U.S. keeping the issue on the table in discussions with
Moscow. The Latvians greatly appreciated the visit for the
opportunity to hold bilateral discussions on some of their
highest priority foreign policy issues. End summary.


2. (U) EUR DAS David Kramer visited Riga July 24 and had
meetings with MFA officials including State Secretary Normans
Penke, U/S for bilateral relations Edgars Skuja, and Latvian
Ambassador to Minsk Maira Mora. He also met with officials
from the Latvian Transatlantic Organization (LATO) and the
umbrella NGO group Open Belarus. Pol/Econ chief accompanied
DAS Kramer as notetaker.

Belarus
--------------

3. (C) Ambassador Mora, who has just completed six months
representing the Austrian presidency in Minsk, said that she
felt we were at a critical juncture in Russian/Belarusian
relations. Developments in the energy sector, especially
negotiations of a new gas contract with Russia, would be a
key indicator of what was happening. She reported that a
source in the ministry of economics had told her that $100
per 1,000 cubic meters was about the highest price Belarus
could afford for gas. Additionally, an official in the MFA
in Minsk had asked Mora to &help us8 before Belarus loses
its independence to Russia. While agreeing with Kramer that
we needed to firmly oppose any Moscow-inspired referendums on
union between the two countries, Mora said we should not
exclude the possibility that Lukashenko might call a
preemptory referendum to reject such a union and we would
need to consider carefully how to respond to that. Asked
about PM Sidorsky, Mora said he was running the government,
but not the country. While some in the EU wanted to include
him on the visa and/or financial bans, she advocated
retaining him as person with whom the U.S. and EU could talk,
especially as he is the main negotiator with Russia. .


4. (C) U/S Skuja said the lack of coordination between
members of the Belarusian opposition was disheartening. Mora
went further, saying, &there is no longer an opposition in
Belarus, they are just dissidents.8 Opposition, even
underground, implies and requires some level of coordination,
she argued, and that does not exist in Belarus.


5. (C) Skuja said that Latvia was focusing its efforts in
Belarus on people-to-people contacts, with State Secretary
Penke noting that Latvia is now waiving visa fees for
Belarusians to encourage travel to Latvia. Latvia is
focusing its assistance programs in Belarus on institution
building and promoting a culture of democracy, according to
Skuja. The GOL hopes to build links between municipalities
in the two countries as part of its assistance programs.
Kramer agreed with this approach, noting the importance of
working with the people of Belarus while squeezing the regime.


6. (C) Kramer asked about ways to get information into
Belarus. Mora said that initial indications are current
efforts are having no visible effect on public opinion within
Belarus. While Skuja said Latvia was keen to work with
European Radio for Belarus (ERB),Mora said radio
transmissions were &preaching to the converted8 in the
border regions. She added that satellite TV was of little
value both because of the prohibitive cost of access and the
ability of the government to block it. She argued for
greater use of printed products, including leaflets,
distributed directly to people within Belarus, while noting
the likely strong GOB reaction and the security issues for
those involved in production and distribution. NGO reps in a
separate meeting told Kramer that they agreed that print was
the most effective, but most dangerous for those involved,
means of information dissemination. They also saw some value
to radio broadcasts, if they had greater reach than at
present. The NGO reps suggested making greater use of the
internet to carry radio broadcasts and other informational
materials. While overall internet access in Belarus was only

around 30 percent, it was much higher among youth, the NGO
reps felt. Open Belarus has tried using SMS text messages
from Latvia to get messages into Belarus, but find the GOB
can easily block those.

Moldova
--------------

7. (C) MFA State Secretary Penke and U/S Skuja highlighted
Moldova as a place where Latvia is looking to do more. When
PM Kalvitis travels there in early September, the Latvian
President, PM and FM will all have been to Moldova in the
space of a year. Penke stressed Latvia's willingness to
share its post-Soviet transition experiences with Moldova and
said they were especially focused on assisting in the areas
of border control and customs. Skuja noted that it was the
largest recipient of Latvian assistance in 2006 and likely
would be again in 2007. Kramer agreed that Latvia had a
positive story to share with Moldova as it moves closer to
Europe and enthusiastically welcomed Latvia's engagement on
border and customs issues. The EU border mission and the
customs agreement with Ukraine were helping address the
issues in Transnistria by squeezing the economic support for
Smirnov, Kramer said. The Latvians fully agreed with Kramer
on the need to stand firm against the proposed September
referendum in Transnistria.

Russia
--------------

8. (C) Penke said that it was too early to tell if recent
moves by Moscow signaled a real shift in Russian policy
towards Latvia. Perhaps there would be some movement in
September on signing several bilateral agreements, but it was
still unclear. Penke stressed that the GOL feels that U.S.
and EU pressure on Russia has been essential in improving the
bilateral relationship.


9. (C) Comment: The Latvians genuinely appreciated the
opportunity to consult and discuss bilaterally these
countries, which are at the top of their foreign policy
agenda. Although discussed in e-PINE and other fora with
U.S., the Latvians often feel overshadowed in those meetings
by larger or more assertive participants. DAS Kramer's
suggestion that a representative from EUR/ACE come for a more
detailed discussion on assistance issues was warmly received
as an indication that we are interested in working in
partnership with the GOL on these issues. Ukraine, because
of the uncertain and fluid situation there, came up very
little in the discussions.


10. (U) DAS Kramer has cleared this cable.
Bailey