PM'S CHIEF OF STAFF ON LATVIAN POLITICAL SCENE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000527 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR LG SUBJECT: PM'S CHIEF OF STAFF ON LATVIAN POLITICAL SCENE Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey. Reason: 1.4 (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Latvia's October elections should produce a politial alignment similar to the coalition currently in office, although the nationalist Fatherland and Freedom could significantly increase its seats, according to the PM's chief of staff, Jurgis Liepnieks. Liepnieks, a consummate political animal, sketched his views on the domestic political scene in a meeting with pol/econ chief. He thought Aivars Lembergs would be a candidate for Prime Minister but would not get the job and would not settle for a lesser post. Although colored a bit by a seeming desire to tell us what he thought we wanted to hear, Liepnieks provided a good overview of the Latvian domestic political scene three months before elections. End summary. ¶2. (C) Pol/econ chief met with the PM's chief of staff and chief political advisor, Jurgis Liepnieks, June 30. Although this was a first meeting, there were no introductory pleasantries. Liepnieks had arrayed on a table in front of him a number of spiral bound volumes, which turned out to be the latest internal polling data for the Prime Minister's People's Party (TP). Liepnieks immediately pointed to an open book and said, "Look at this, Aivars Lembergs (Ventspils mayor, currently under indictment for corruption) is the most popular politician in Latvia." He then proceeded to show that in Latvia overall, as well as in three of the five regions, Lembergs was at the top in survey's on politicians' popularity. In the other two regions, noted Latvian composer and TP Member of Parliament Raimonds Pauls tops the list. In the Latvia-wide survey , others at the top of the list after Lembergs and Pauls were former Foreign Minister Sandra Kalniete (New Era (JL)),current Foreign Minister Artis Pabriks (TP),and Prime Minister Aigars Kalvitis (TP). Liepnieks also pointed out his political patron, former PM Andris Skele (TP),about halfway down the list and former PM Einars Repse (JL) about two-thirds of the way down. (Note: The poll did not include President Vike-Freiberga. Liepnieks did not provide exact polling figures for any individual, nor did he provide date of the survey or methodology information. End note.) ¶3. (C) Turning to the October parliamentary elections, Liepnieks said the two parties to watch were the First Party (LPP) and nationalist Fatherland and Freedom (TB). With LPP, the question was whether they could clear the five percent threshold to remain in Parliament. TB, he thought was the real wild card. Currently with seven seats, they could stay in the same range or pick up as many as 20 seats. (Note: TB was the big winner in the 2004 European Parliament elections, taking four of Latvia's eight seats, when turnout was low. End note.) ¶4. (C) In the election campaign, Liepnieks though that the major Latvian parties would run on the following issues: TP would focus on results achieved while it was in government; JL would run on an anti-corruption platform; TB would run a nationalist campaign; the Greens and Farmers Union (ZZS) would run on Lembergs' name; and LPP would run on an anti-gay rights platform. Even with these issues formally setting the agenda, Liepnieks expected a personality-based campaign, with heavily negative attack ads framing much of the real political debate. In the end, Liepnieks assessed, TP, JL, and ZZS would win about 20 seats each, with another 15 - 20 divided between LPP and TB. The remaining seats in parliament would be divided among the ethnic Russian or leftist parties, whom Liepnieks basically dismissed as irrelevant. This predicted outcome, he said, should allow for a coalition similar to the current government. Liepnieks hoped, of course, that Kalvitis would contiune as Prime Minister. ¶5. (C) Liepnieks assessed that foreign policy would play little or no role in the elections, with the exception of relations with Russia, but even that would be a minor issue. There is political consensus in Latvia on the value of relations with the U.S., even among the ethnic Russian parties, he said. In his view, Latvia's deployment in Iraq would not be an election issue and no matter the outcome of the election, renewing the mandate for the deployment in December would not be difficult. (Comment: He is far too sanguine on these points, in our view. End comment.) ¶6. (C) Returning to the issue of Lembergs, Liepnieks thought that he would not be on the ZZS ticket for parliament, but that they would announce that he would be their candidate for PM. (Note: ZZS began floating this idea in the press July 5 and former PM Emsis (ZZS) told us this would be the party's strategy. End note). No major party in Latvia has ever done this and Liepnieks wondered how voters would react to not have the candidate for PM actually on the ballot. No matter the outcome, he said, the other major parties would simply not agree to join a government with Lembergs as Prime RIGA 00000527 002 OF 002 Minister. Asked if ZZS might insist on another ministry for Lembergs as a condition for joining government, Liepnieks discounted that possibility, saying Lembergs was not willing to take the inevitable hits to his personal popularity that come with a government role unless he could have the top job. ¶7. (C) Comment: Liepnieks is a purely political animal, telling p/e chief at one point that if we had questions about policy issues to see the PM's foreign policy advisor, but that he would always be willing to talk "personalities and politics" with us. Throughout the conversation, Liepnieks was animated, almost jittery, and constantly sketching possible political scenarios on paper and in his head. Our relationship with him has been difficult at times. He is a significant source of leaks from the PM's office, all designed to score political points, and we sometimes deliberately work around him on sensitive issues. We take his political assessments with a grain of salt. We don't doubt his understanding of Latvian politics, but believe he was spinning things a bit in the direction he thought we would want to hear. Certainly, his views on the alleged ease of renewing the Iraq mandate in December strike us as overly optimistic. However, his assessment of the main platform issues of the parties and the negative nature of the campaign track with what we are hearing elsewhere. Lembergs is the major wild card in the election given his personal popularity and it is likely that Liepnieks' almost casual dismissal of Lembergs playing any role in government was designed to reassure himself as much as us. Bailey