SOUTHERN KAREN FOCUS ON ECONOMIC WOES, NOT FIGHTING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000591 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS ECON PREL BM SUBJECT: SOUTHERN KAREN FOCUS ON ECONOMIC WOES, NOT FIGHTING REF: A. RANGOON 521 ¶B. RANGOON 456 ¶C. 05 RANGOON 908 Classified By: Vice Consul Walter Parrs for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Local residents during our recent visit to the H'pa-An capital region of southern Karen State expressed no pressing concern with recent skirmishes between Burmese military and Karen National Union (KNU) units in the northern part of the state. Numerous contacts characterized the violence as "typical dry season conflict." Local Karen instead focused primarily on their dwindling purchasing power and other economic woes that drive up local labor costs, slow consumer spending, and prompt more economic migration to Thailand. The Rangoon-Mae Sot trade route that crosses southern Karen State does provide limited localized growth. The route also provides an ironic source of stability as the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) and the Burmese Army maintain an uneasy, though peaceful, co-existence that allows both groups to enjoy the spoils of informal border trade. End Summary. LOCAL VIEWS ON RENEWED SPDC-KNU CONFLICT ¶2. (SBU) During an April 26 to 28 trip to the H'pa-An capital region of Karen State, Emboff met with a wide range of community and religious leaders and local businessmen to discuss issues affecting the ethnic border region. All of our contacts downplayed recent skirmishes in northern Karen State between Burmese Army units and members of the Karen National Union (KNU) (ref A). They described recent violence that has created new refugee and IDP flows as "typical dry season conflict" between two sides that have been engaged in conflict for over five decades. ¶3. (C) Most of the Karen leaders we met in the H'pa-An area appeared indifferent to the political dimensions of KNU relations with the Burmese regime, expressing a general view that a 2004 "gentlemen's cease-fire agreement" continues to hold. Ashin Pyinya Tha Mi, an influential Buddhist Monk with strong political connections throughout Karen State, showed little concern that the latest skirmishes would have any broader impact, including in the H'pa-An capital region that was once home to the KNU central command and is now the most developed part of the region. He theorized that logging activities in the north may be the source of the recent skirmishes. ¶4. (C) During our three days traveling to and from H'pa-An, and throughout the greater capital region, we saw few signs of the Burmese Army (BA). During previous travel to the region, and especially during annual dry season military campaigns, Emboffs frequently observed large numbers of BA troops and convoys, especially from Light Infantry Division No. 22, which has authority over the region. During this trip, the military presence appeared to be limited to a perfunctory Burmese Army security presence and roving patrols of the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA). ARMED TO THE TEETH: DKBA DIPLOMACY ¶5. (SBU) The DKBA, a KNU splinter group that switched its loyalty to the GOB in 1995, announces its presence loudly throughout the H'pa-An region. We observed ostentatious displays of DKBA weaponry from H'pa-An to Kawkarek and beyond, toward the border town of Myawaddy. Pickups carrying eight or more DKBA soldiers brandishing machine guns, grenades, and grenade launchers rolled nonchalantly through downtown areas, and armed soldiers rode commercial transportation with locals. The DKBA also operates private gas stations and many road checkpoints. We also observed BA and DKBA soldiers socializing together peacefully at local restaurants and tea shops. ¶6. (SBU) The uneasy peace between the brazen DKBA and the GOB appears to persist as a result of the important H'pa-An to Mae Sot (Thailand) trade route. The paved road not only provides Karen State with much desired Thai goods, but also delivers imported products to Rangoon and the rest of southeast Burma. Profits from corruption and smuggling have given incentives to the GOB and the DKBA to collaborate in keeping the road open and goods flowing. FREE TO MOVE, CLOSELY WATCHED ¶7. (SBU) The GOB designates large swaths of Karen State as either "brown" or "black" security zones, preventing access by most foreigners. We observed only one weary foreign tourist in H'pa-An, even though it is open. Nonetheless, we were able to continue well past H'pa-An, almost to the Thai border, without encountering obstacles to our travel. The one GOB checkpoint along the route barely registered the embassy car before waving it through. GOB authorities still keep a watchful eye. Ten minutes after parking the embassy car, an Immigration Officer interrupted a conversation between Emboff and a local Muslim leader, in the latter's home, demanding to know the meeting's purpose and where we had been earlier in the day. IT'S THE ECONOMY ¶8. (SBU) Although we found some apathy among local Karen regarding political developments, we encountered intense interest in inflation and its impact on the already depressed region. On April 28, the GOB put into effect a massive nationwide pay hike for the country's one million-plus civil servants. Than Aye, a private businessman who employs over 100 weavers in his textile factories, described the challenge of rising wages and declining sales. His employees now demand up to 2,000 Kyat (about $1.40) per day, a thirty percent increase over wages prior to the GOB increase. Shrinking profit margins make the raise costly, says Than Aye; however, he worries about losing his employees to factories in Thailand if he doesn't meet their demands. ¶9. (SBU) Karen businessmen and community leaders alike emphasized how current conditions exacerbate economic migration to Thailand. Many ambitious workers make the trip east in search of higher wages. We saw more trucks laden with people than products traveling to Mae Sot. This migration has created a generation gap that the Karen fear will erode not only their identity, but also their control of their homeland as Chinese and non-Karen investors snatch up real estate left behind by the Karen. ¶10. (SBU) Many locals along the H'pa-An to Mae Sot road clearly benefit from trade opportunities the route creates. Local stores and restaurants bustle with customers moving along this corridor, the primary link between Thailand and southeastern Burma. Approaching the border area, bamboo huts give way to two story concrete homes, rare in most other rural parts of the country. The road is well maintained and easily traveled, even if the final 40 mile stretch before the border is only open to one-way traffic that changes direction on alternating days. ¶11. (C) Comment: None of the contacts with whom we spoke denied that skirmishes between the Burmese Army and the KNU have created new refugee and IDP flows. Sources also agreed that the conflict is localized, with no indication that either side has undertaken a major offensive. They did express a range of views on which side or event might have sparked various assaults and counter-attacks. The southern Karen we met clearly viewed the conflict as less significant than the day-to-day troubles of economic survival and doing business. End Comment. VILLAROSA