NLD AND ETHNICS: DIFFERING VIEWS ON FEDERALISM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000451 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SOCI SNAR EAID BM NLD SUBJECT: NLD AND ETHNICS: DIFFERING VIEWS ON FEDERALISM Classified By: APAO KPENLAND FOR REASONS 1.5 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: During the recent PD-sponsored visit of a U.S. federalism expert, senior National League for Democracy (NLD) party leaders asserted that they do not consider ethnic minority states capable of properly forming and running their own subnational administrations in a post-transition Burma. Not surprisingly, a well-connected Kachin youth leader told us that the top NLD leadership did not respect the ethnic party leaders, nor did they discuss federalism with the ethnic parties in preparing for a democratic transition. The Kachin leader had confidence that Aung San Suu Kyi, if released, would steer the party toward a federalist system. Nevertheless, mistrust of NLD's commitment to implementing a power-sharing system lingers. This lingering mistrust, which few have seriously addressed in the ethnically and religiously diverse democratic opposition, facilitates the military's continued control using divide and rule policies. END SUMMARY More Agreement on Federalism than Realized -------------- ¶2. (C) Professor Alan Tarr from Rutgers University presented a series of lectures on federalism at the American Center and in Myitkyina, the capital of Kachin state in northern Burma, from February 27-March 6. Tarr first conducted a day-long workshop for second-line leaders of the NLD and of several ethnic pro-democracy political parties. The group of fifty included Parliamentarians elected in the annulled 1990 elections, party spokespersons, and student activists. Tarr first defined federalism, and described the different models in place around the world along with the advantages and disadvantages. The class broke up into smaller sections to discuss how federalism might work in Burma. After reassembling, the diverse audience reached consensus on the following: --"Burma must have federalism" -- stated by an NLD mid-level party official; --Subnational units should have autonomy in the areas of education, culture, language, health, and environment; and --A new constitution should outlaw secession, but retain provisions for a state-wide referendum on separation in the event of egregious human rights abuses. ¶3. (C) This consensus on federalism among mid-level NLD and ethnic leaders represented a major breakthrough in achieving some consensus on federalism since we began hosting discussions six months ago on this issue. Initially, the two groups would not mix or speak to each other. When asked to write questions on index cards, which were read aloud without attribution, almost all of the questions posed by the ethnic leaders to the NLD related to federalism. The second-line NLD party leaders tried to avoid talking about federalism, they referred to the more unitary model of China. A Different Tune from Senior NLD Officials -------------- ¶4. (C) The Charge held a dinner on March 5 at her residence for Prof. Tarr and senior members of the NLD. At the dinner, only the two most senior members of the party's Central Executive Committee (CEC) spoke: party spokesperson and Secretary U Lwin and senior economist U Nyunt Wei. CEC SIPDIS Members U Than Tun and U Hla Pe, junior spokesperson and MP-elect U Myint Thein, and MP-elect U Soe Win only listened. ¶5. (C) U Lwin and U Nyunt Wei doubted Burma could support a federalist system. Lwin doubted the abilities of the states to responsibly collect and spend local tax revenues, and allocate some of the funds to a central authority. Tarr pointed out that citizens would be more comfortable paying taxes to local authorities over whom they have sway. U Lwin did not seem convinced, remarking, "The Kachin count hills rather than people." U Nyunt Wei spoke even more pessimistically about the possibilities of federalism in Burma. Asked by the Charge whether younger NLD members should be educated in the different models of democratic government, he said, "No, they just need to learn English." He then recounted the story of a young man who faithfully supported the NLD without question, even after being imprisoned and tortured. ¶6. (C) NLD officials U Myint Thein and U Soe Win both attended a "Federalism wrap-up" discussion the morning after the dinner. During the wrap-up, U Myint Thein complained to the APAO that ethnic parties want too much power to self-govern. The APAO pointed out that Arakanese, Shan and Kachin student activists at the workshop called for states rights to cover only education, health, environment, culture and language. But Myint Thein insisted that ethnic parties wanted more. Federalism A New Option for the Mobilized Youth in Myitkyina -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Over the weekend of March 3-5, Tarr and a PD FSN specialist flew to Myitkyina to deliver lectures on federalism to the Myitkyina elders, the KIA delegate to the National Convention, Kachin Consultative Assembly Youth, University lecturers, representatives from Naung Nan Baptist Seminary and Metta, and youths from the Kachin Baptist Convention. The discussion with the elders, important decision-makers in Kachin society, evolved slowly as Duwa Zau Guang first took it upon himself to act as spokesperson. However, as the meeting continued meaningful discussion ensued among all participants. ¶8. (C) Kachin youth seemed to get the most out of the discussion (septel). Kachin political youth appear more active and self-confident than other youth groups in the country. However, according to youth leader Dau Hkaung, the youth see only two options for their future: a Burmese democracy in which ethnics have no role or an independent state formed with ethnic Kachin from neighboring China. Tarr presented federalism as a third option, stressing it could only take place under a democracy. He added that a democratic country, even if not federalist, gives all citizens a role through voting and participating in the civic process. The youth listened intently to the lecture, asked insightful questions, and appeared to accept the idea that federalism might offer another option for Burma. On returning from Myitkyina, Tarr said he wished the American students in his own classes asked as many intelligent questions as the Kachin youth did. Muslims Unsure of Relevance -------------- ¶9. (C) On March 1, Tarr presented a lecture on "Federalism and Minority Rights" to an audience of about 70 Muslims at the American Center. While the discussion of federalism among the ethnic minority groups had been much more dynamic, with people eager to talk about how it would apply in Burma, Muslim audiences viewed the lecture as much more abstract and academic. One audience member asked after the lecture: What should a people who are restricted in their worship and even their ability to move about the country consider when thinking about federalism? Even so, Muslim participants returned in force for the final evening lecture and accounted for the largest percentage of the mixed audience. COMMENT: -------------- ¶11. (C) Dr. Tarr's intensive 10-day series of lectures, workshops and discussions on federalism with key members of the NLD and ethnic political parties, including the youth wings, student activists, and Muslims, provided new insights on the importance of federalism as an issue in Burma. The discussions underscored that the democratic opposition is not at all united on the political structures that Burma should adopt in a transition to democracy. The desire for greater autonomy among the ethnic minorities elicits little sympathy among the ethnic Burman NLD leaders, who focus on unity. The mistrust on both sides about the motivations of the other plays into the hands of the military to keep the democratic opposition divided. We will continue encouraging discussions about future political arrangements among the diverse people we meet to try to open minds and build understanding. END COMMENT VILLAROSA