THE FRUSTRATIONS OF A BURMESE ECONOMIST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000419

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SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA; TREASURY FOR OASIA:AJEWELL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2015
TAGS: ECON PGOV BM
SUBJECT: THE FRUSTRATIONS OF A BURMESE ECONOMIST


Classified By: Econoff TLManlowe for Reason 1.4 (b,d).


1. (SBU) Summary: U Myint, a retired UN economist, freely
offers economic advice to regime leaders and democratic
activists. He doubts senior leader Than Shwe receives any of
it because he "does not listen to anyone." Were Than Shwe to
heed Myint's advice, Burma would concentrate less on
traditional agriculture, would develop social and economic
infrastructure, and would take its place as an equal in the
region. Myint believes that most Burmese, "fed up," with
Than Shwe's rule, show their dissatisfaction in small ways
every day. End summary.

Burma's Economic Focus Needs Modernizing
--------------

2. (SBU) U Myint, former head of the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs (MFA) Economic Department and longtime ESCAP
economist in Bangkok, retired back to Rangoon, but stays
active with economic issues. He shared some of his views
with Charge on March 24. Burma's formal sector is very
small, he said. "Without the informal sector, there'd be no
commerce at all. We'd be lost." Everyone is doing badly, he
continued. Just across the river, he said, he knows a man
staying in a hut with no running water or power. "He lives
just like his grandfather did, 50 years ago, no improvement
since then, and no hopes for improvement," Myint said. His
contacts all say investment has dried up and business is bad,
with no prospects for progress. There is some commercial
activity visible in Rangoon, "but it's paltry for a country
of over 50 million."


3. (SBU) The focus of the current regime on agriculture shows
no results, according to Myint. All they do is grow rice and
beans and build dams, he said. "That is easy, that is the
way we've been living for 500 years." To be more productive
in agriculture requires modern technology, fertilizer,
credit, seeds, new crop varieties and extension services,
according to Myint. He doubts that agriculture has grown as
a part of GDP, as claimed by the regime. GOB statistics are
unreliable, he asserted, citing discrepancies particularly in
the area of services. He does agree that manufacturing has
virtually disappeared.

Who Is Left To Guide Change?
--------------

4. (SBU) U Myint stated that Senior General Than Shwe makes
all economic decisions with no input from economists. Myint
had been advised by ousted intelligence chief Khin Nyunt to
"never contradict and never offer an opinion" when speaking
with the senior leaders. No one did then, and no one will
now, he said. The lack of access to provide advice and
information to the top leaders was Myint's primary complaint.


5. (C) Almost all well-educated Burmese have sent their
children overseas, as have SPDC officials, because of the
lack of good educational or job prospects in Burma. It is
another way the regime has destroyed Burmese society. "I
can't ask my son to come back from overseas," he said.
"There is nothing for him here." Only the dullards, the
poor, and the politically active remain, Myint said. If
there is a change of leadership, he said, no one here would
be capable of taking over.


6. (C) U Myint said most Burmese are "fed up" with Than
Shwe's policies and protest, not publicly, but quietly, every
day. They have become more vocal with friends and
acquaintances about their dissatisfaction than ever before.
On the job, they perform the bare minimum possible, with no
sense of pride or obligation to contribute. Workers have no
incentive to perform and no opportunity for growth. If
required by the regime to work on a construction project,
such as a road, they do it badly, for example by throwing mud
and papers in the roadbed so that the next rains wash it
away. In class, students don't study, he said, and teachers
don't teach. Student must pay extra fees to the teachers for
after-hours 'tuition' classes, where they learn, not to
think, but only the answers to exam questions. Even in the
MFA, he said, employees volunteer for service in Pyinmana in
hopes of being rewarded with an overseas assignment. No one
wants to stay in Burma, he said. Although the situation will
inevitably change, probably abruptly, U Myint doubts it will
happen soon.

Economic Food For Thought
--------------

7. (C) Myint said he told Aung San Suu Kyi that, should a
political transition occur, he did not want to be responsible
for economic policy, because it would be too difficult.
Things would get worse before they would get better, he said,
and we would all be blamed for it. Reforms would take a long
time because Burma has fallen so far behind, we will have to
construct everything from scratch. To help build some
domestic capacity, however, Myint holds informal educational
sessions with young people, including former political
prisoners, such as Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi. He teaches
them basic economic concepts, and gives them current news on
issues such as free trade, globalization, international
finance and development.


8. (SBU) Myint has written a number of papers on economic
issues, including how Burma should utilize foreign assistance
after a regime change (slowly, building capacity along the
way); the Burmese economy (lagging, needs to develop social
and economic institutions, movement from agriculture into
services and industry); sanctions (too broad, can damage
chances for smooth transition of power); and other issues.
He consistently emphasizes that change must come from within
Burma, and that its population of 50 million must play a
role. Respecting his opinion, many organizations affiliated
with the government ask for his input and advice. Recently,
he advised the Institute of Strategic Studies at the MFA and
the Myanmar National Chamber of Commerce.


9. (SBU) U Myint's most recent paper describes his vision of
a way forward in terms he believes will be acceptable, even
to the regime. The basic premises are that Burma must strive
to become a modern, prosperous nation (as the regime's own
propaganda claims),and that Burma must be a reliable
international partner, taking its place in the community of
nations. He suggests that the regime use Buddhist beliefs
such as compassion, responsibility, wisdom, selflessness,
impermanence, and spirituality to guide policy actions.
Myint has received positive feedback on his vision from many,
including some generals, but he can't find anyone willing to
pass it to Than Shwe. To further develop his vision, Myint
proposes to open a local think tank, staffed by
professionals, where all would be welcome to share their
views.

Isolated Military
--------------

10. (C) U Myint said he no longer believes Than Shwe moved
the capital to Pyinmana to escape potential popular unrest.
He thinks Than Shwe wanted to remove the military officers
from close contact with the people. Top leaders were
horrified, he said, that military officers joined the
protests in 1988. "They never got over it, " he claimed. By
isolating the troops in Pyinmana, they can control unwanted
influence, and eliminate the chance that members of the
military may side with the people.


11. (C) The military, however, is not a monolithic structure,
he continued. Many officers do not support the regime's
policies. When teaching at the Defense Services Academy,
Myint said he would discuss developments in China, Thailand
and Vietnam. "What about us?" the cadets would ask. When he
couldn't give a positive answer about Burma's development, he
said the students were frustrated at their country's
backwardness. The people, the military and "even the
Chinese" are fed up with regime actions, Myint said.


12. (C) Comment: U Myint is a thoughtful and knowledgeable
observer who, even while despairing of change, works to make
it happen. Even if he does not have access to Than Shwe, he
does have access to a broad spectrum of Burmese military,
business and political activists who could potentially assume
leadership positions. This shows the continuing respect for
knowledge and desire for accurate information among the
Burmese. It gives hope that sound rational policies might
one day get implemented, just not while Than Shwe is around.
End comment.
VILLAROSA