NLD'S FLEXIBLE OFFER TO THE BURMESE REGIME

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000246 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BM NLD SUBJECT: NLD'S FLEXIBLE OFFER TO THE BURMESE REGIME REF: A. RANGOON 207 ¶B. RANGOON 110 Classified By: P/E Chief W. Patrick Murphy for Reasons 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: NLD leaders have low expectations that the Burmese regime will respond favorably to their February 12 proposal to convene the Parliament elected in 1990 in return for the opposition's recognition of the ruling regime as a transitional government. The NLD is nonetheless encouraged by the positive reaction to their proposal among diverse opposition groups--and they say that they have informed Aung San Suu Kyi and she supports their effort. The NLD leaders view their new initiative as a "give and take" offer and are willing to negotiate further with the SPDC. Some ethnic leaders have grumbled that the NLD did not consult with them in advance, but NLD leaders insist that all democratic opposition parties support the overall reconciliation effort. We recommend that Washington officials cite the NLD proposal at appropriate opportunities as a positive gesture and possible mechanism to begin national reconciliation. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) National League for Democracy (NLD) Chairman U Aung Shwe and party spokesman U Lwin told us on February 21 that the ruling military regime has not yet reacted to the party's recent proposal to convene the Parliament elected in 1990 in return for the NLD's recognition of the SPDC as a de jure transitional government (ref A). The party leaders have low expectations that the SPDC will respond favorably, if at all, but they are nonetheless encouraged by the positive reaction to their proposal by leaders of domestic opposition and exile groups. EVER-FRAGILE UNITY ¶3. (C) The NLD unveiled their new proposal for reconciliation at the democratic opposition's February 12 commemoration of Union Day (ref A). Despite the outward appearance of close unity among the NLD and other political parties there, several ethnic pro-democracy leaders have quietly criticized the NLD effort. A spokesperson for the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA),for example, complained to us that the NLD had not consulted in advance with ethnic politicians, including the democratic opposition's multi-ethnic Committee to Represent the People's Parliament (CRPP). ¶4. (C) The top two NLD leaders acknowledged to us that "a few" ethnic leaders were displeased that the NLD had not consulted with them in advance of the announcement. They stressed, however, that while the ethnics had issues with the process, they stood united on the proposal itself as a means to initiate a dialogue with the regime. The NLD leaders convoked a meeting of the CRPP on February 22 in order to discuss the proposal more fully with ethnic leaders. ¶5. (C) U Aung Shwe said that NLD leaders kept a very close hold on the proposal prior to February 12 to avert an advance crackdown by the SPDC. The regime generals, he said, do not recognize the legitimacy of the multi-party CRPP and would "most certainly have taken action if they perceived an attempt to build a stronger coalition with the ethnics." The two NLD leaders said they had not even informed the rest of their own party's executive committee until one week prior to the announcement. A VIEW FROM THE NORTH ¶6. (C) Kachin ethnic leader, and peace negotiator, Rev. Saboi Jum told the Charge on February 16 that he would like to follow up on the NLD's proposal by suggesting he could promote dialogue between regime leaders and the democratic opposition using the National Convention process. He welcomed ongoing international pressure on the regime and agreed with the NLD that ASEAN should play a mediation role. ¶7. (C) The Charge called the National Convention a sham that had no credibility. She asked Saboi Jum what problems he had with the NLD proposal of everyone discussing the way forward. Saboi Jum described the NLD proposal as "confused," but offered no specifics. He stressed, however, the importance of a role for local groups and organizations to bring the NLD and the military closer together. Comment: Although Saboi Jum has played a prominent role in previous SPDC negotiations with ethnic insurgents, the democratic opposition views him as close to the regime and would not likely seek his involvement in their initiative. End Comment. ¶8. (C) Ethnic sources told poloff that the NLD proposal resembles a similar effort undertaken after the 1990 legislative election. The then-leader of the military regime (SLORC),General Saw Maung, dismissed the proposal at the time as "useless" and jailed the MPs-elect who had drafted it. The SPDC carried out another massive round up of MPs-elect after the NLD floated a similar proposal in 1998. A "GIVE AND TAKE" APPROACH ¶9. (S) The two NLD leaders confided that they had informed the party's General Secretary, Aung San Suu Kyi, prior to announcing the proposal, via her personal physician during his most recent medical visit to her Rangoon compound (STRICTLY PROTECT; ref B). The two leaders said that they had not received a direct return message from her, but intimated that ASSK had endorsed the proposal. They added that ASSK "is supportive of all NLD efforts to achieve a peaceful dialogue." U Aung Shwe also affirmed that ASSK remains under house arrest at her compound, where the NLD continues to deliver food on a daily basis. ¶10. (C) U Aung Shwe described the NLD proposal as a "give and take" effort. "We are not making any demands of the regime," he said, "we are simply undertaking every effort to indicate that we are prepared to have an open dialogue." He noted that in unveiling the proposal the NLD had cited April 17 as a date by which the party hoped to hear from the regime. "This is not a deadline," added U Aung Shwe, "but rather a polite suggestion that the regime use the Burmese New Year to accept our offer to negotiate." U TIN OO REMAINS UNDER HOUSE ARREST ¶11. (C) U Aung Shwe confirmed international media reports that the GOB had recently extended NLD Vice Chairman U Tin Oo's house detention for another twelve months. According to U Tin Oo's wife, who frequently visits NLD headquarters, police officials arrived at his home last week with an order signed by the Minister of Home Affairs. The order cited provisions of Burmese security law as justification for his continued house arrest. COMMENT: AREAS OF COMMON AGREEMENT UNITING THE OPPOSITION? ¶12. (C) The challenge of forging unity among the democratic opposition remains a serious pitfall. The democratic opposition must contend with a regime intent on thwarting coalition building among political and ethnic groups. The NLD and ethnic opposition parties share a common enemy, the military regime, but little else unifies them. Historic grievances among them have resulted in constant bickering over process and details. ¶13. (C) Nonetheless, the vast majority of the democratic opposition supports the substance of the new NLD initiative to preserve the integrity of the 1990 election and to use the election results as means to effect a transition. Any agreement among all the opposition forces represents progress which we will encourage. U Aung Shwe and U Lwin told us that they would welcome U.S. support for their effort. We recommend citing the NLD proposal at appropriate opportunities as a useful gesture and possible mechanism to advance Burma's national reconciliation process. It demonstrates NLD's flexibility in the face of regime stonewalling. Now, if only the democratic opposition could present a united face to that stone wall. END COMMENT. VILLAROSA