BURMESE REGIME FILES CHARGES AGAINST OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001670

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BM
SUBJECT: BURMESE REGIME FILES CHARGES AGAINST OPPOSITION
LEADERS


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Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Reliable Embassy sources have told us that on
November 6 the regime charged Min Ko Naing and the four other
detained 88 Generation Student (88GS) leaders under the 1950
Emergency Provision Act, a catch-all law the regime uses to
prosecute most political prisoners. The UN has not yet
confirmed to the 88GS leaders that Gambari will meet with
them during his visit. 88GS leaders plan to present
petitions from their signature campaign to Gambari and to ask
the UN to support their call for a public referendum that
would ask voters whether they support the results of the 1990
national election and the initiation of a tripartite dialogue
among the NLD, SPDC, and the ethnic groups. Locals speculate
that the ruling generals will not agree to any concessions
that threaten their grip on power and Gambari will return to
New York with little to show for his trip. The Russian
Ambassador informed the Charge that he delivered a message to
the MFA that Gambari should not leave empty-handed. End
Summary.


2. (C) On November 8, rumors began to circulate through
Rangoon that the five detained 88GS leaders had been charged
in Bahan Township court. Today, reliable sources from the
Burmese judicial community, as well as 88GS leader Jimmy and
NLD leaders, separately confirmed that the five had been
charged on November 6 under the 1950 Emergency Provision Act
(5J),a catch-all law the regime uses to jail any who annoy
or challenge them.


3. (C) Earlier this week, in a meeting between emboffs and
88GS leader Mya Aye, the group's interim leader told us they
are still waiting to hear from UN Resident Coordinator Petrie
whether U/SYG Gambari would meet with them during his visit.
88GS leaders Mya Aye and Jimmy have urged the UN to seek a
meeting for Gambari with them, and also with detained 88GS
leader Min Ko Naing. If they do obtain a meeting, the
leaders plan to present Gambari with petitions from their
signature campaign. They also plan to request that the UN
and the international community push for and monitor a
referendum to allow the Burmese people to express their
support for the results of the 1990 election and for the
initiation of a tripartite dialogue among the NLD, the SPDC,
and representatives of the ethnic minority groups. Mya Aye
emphasized that the 88GS are willing to accept the military
as a "legitimate national force" that should be included in
any national reconciliation process. He added that the
students have no wish to use Gambari's visit to bring
disorder or to stage a violent overthrow of the government.


4. (C) In a separate meeting with us, 88GS leader Jimmy
emphasized that the group plans to continue to push for more
public participation in their movement by emphasizing the
peaceful nature of their campaign and the legality of their
protest actions. Jimmy said that during the signature
campaign the leaders noticed that residents of rural areas
had become more emboldened, in contrast to urban residents.
He speculated that this was because intelligence, military,
and police intimidation has focused on urban residents.
Jimmy said the 88GS leadership will begin to reach out to
rural communities to take advantage of this opportunity.
Jimmy also thinks the positive public reaction to the
signature and "wear white" campaigns has invigorated younger
leaders of the NLD as well. He hopes that the 88GS movement
will motivate the NLD leadership to be bolder in challenging
the regime and reaching out to the public.


5. (C) The 88GS leaders report they are now being watched
more closely by a special military intelligence unit Than
Shwe created specifically to monitor students. They have

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heard from sympathetic contacts in rival Police Special
Branch (SB) that this unit has asked for many of the
students' prison files. They expect the regime to initiate a
third wave of arrests soon. Aung San Suu Kyi's doctor told
us a couple of weeks ago that he heard three more 88GS
leaders would be arrested.


6. (C) Moreover, even the Russians are pressing the regime:
the new Russian Ambassador told the Charge that during a
visit to the Foreign Ministry earlier this week, he stressed
that Gambari should not return from Burma empty-handed.
While it is unusual for the regime to hear such a message
from those who traditionally defend them in the UNSC, even
the Russian Ambassador lamented that messages delivered to
the Foreign Ministry are rarely relayed up the chain of
command to the decision-maker at the top.


7. (C) Comment: Gambari's November 9-12 visit to Burma is
drawing extra attention from all sides. While some students
hold out hope that Gambari will secure the release of Min Ko
Naing and his colleagues, the November 6 indictments signal a
more ominous outcome. Given past experience and regime
recalcitrance, we do not expect any concessions that will
threaten their tight grip on power. It is more likely they
will try to appease Gambari by offering modest gestures,
releasing a few non-prominent political prisoners and
promising to reduce restrictions on some forms of
humanitarian assistance. End comment.
VILLAROSA