PRAYING FOR CHANGE IN BURMA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 001624 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BM SUBJECT: PRAYING FOR CHANGE IN BURMA REF: A. RANGOON 1572 ¶B. RANGOON 1521 RANGOON 00001624 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: PolOff Dean Tidwell for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The 88 Generation Students began a weeklong prayer campaign on October 29, calling on Burmese of all faiths to pray for the release of all political prisoners, as well as for flood victims in central Burma and for peaceful national reconciliation. The prayer campaign culminates on Saturday, November 4, a major Buddhist holiday, when millions will flock to the country's pagodas. The Minister of Information warned the 88GS members against using the opportunity to rally the public at a November 3 press conference and claimed the students' petition drive, white shirt campaign, and prayer vigils were illegal actions that threatened to destabilize the country. The minister hinted that legal charges would be brought against detained student leaders soon and revealed other signs that the regime is determined to resist public pressure for change. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) The 88 Generation Students' (88GS) prayer campaign began on October 29 and is scheduled to end on November 4 (ref A). Embassy sources observed over 1,000 supporters at Shwedagon Pagoda in Rangoon on October 29, most wearing white and carrying candles, praying for democracy and human rights. Approximately 50 members of the regime's goon squad, the Union Solidarity Development Association (USDA),were on hand to try to prevent the group from reaching the central platform and praying, but ordinary pilgrims quickly joined the 88GS group and the USDA backed off in the face of overwhelming numbers. Military Security Affairs personnel openly filmed the 88GS group as they prayed. ¶3. (SBU) Other religious groups also offered prayers this week. The Archbishop of St. Mary's Cathedral led prayers for the student leaders' release there, and 100 Baptists held a special prayer service at Immanuel Baptist Church in Rangoon, while about 100 Muslims held special prayers at Tamway Mosque. ¶4. (C) Smaller groups of Buddhists have met for special prayers each day this week at pagodas around the country. According to media reports, authorities closed several pagodas in Rakhine State to prevent groups there from praying. Embassy sources told us that authorities castigated several monks at a monastery in Aunglan, Magway Division, for participating in the special prayer services, warning them that "real monks do not involve themselves in laypersons' activities" (i.e. politics). THE EMPIRE STRIKES BACK ¶5. (U) At a special press conference on November 2, the Minister of Information, BGen Kyaw Hsan, sharply criticized the 88GS efforts to motivate the people. The Minister said the 88GS's petition, "Wear White," and prayer campaigns were all illegal and claimed that the 88GS forged most signatures on the petitions or obtained them on false pretenses. The 88GS had reported they gathered over 500,000 signatures through the petition drive. Kyaw Hsan also insisted that the 88GS campaigns were illegal and that student leaders grossly exaggerated the number of participants. ¶6. (U) The Minister also claimed that recently arrested 88GS leaders had received financial support from exile groups. He accused these groups of channeling their funds through the U.S. and U.K. missions in Rangoon. He claimed that Min Ko Naing purchased mobile telephones and planned to buy vehicles with funds that Thailand-based exile groups channeled to him through the U.K. Embassy. He also said that an unnamed RANGOON 00001624 002.2 OF 003 U.S.-based NGO channeled funds to Htay Kywe with support from the U.S. Embassy. ¶7. (C) The regime also tried to link the 88GS leaders to historical movements in Burma. Kyaw Hsan said the regime had evidence that the five detained student leaders had close links, current and in the past, with exile organizations the GOB considers "terrorist groups." He also claimed that they were linked to the Burma Communist Party. When asked by reporters, Kyaw Hsan said that the detained 88GS leaders had not yet been charged, but would be once the investigation was complete. An Embassy source in the police's Special Branch said the five leaders were arraigned at the High Court in Rangoon on November 2, and may be charged under Sections 7 and 10(a)(b) of the law on "Safeguarding the Nation from Destructive Elements." ¶8. (SBU) At the press conference, BGen Khin Yi, the Director General of the Myanmar Police Force, displayed autopsy photos of political prisoner Thet Win Aung, who recently died in Mandalay Prison. Khin Yi claimed that Thet Win Aung died of natural causes and was not mistreated, even though he had conspired to commit terrorist acts. The police leader displayed prison medical records and doctor's statements to support his claim. Sources tell us that That Win Aung was indeed tortured in prison, and that prison authorities refused to treat his resulting health problems. The GOB also displayed photos of prisoners in Iraq's Abu Ghraib Prison at the press conference, asserting that the United States was in no position to "blow its own trumpet" on treatment of prisoners. ¶9. (C) 88GS leaders tell us they fear that the regime will orchestrate its supporters to complain soon that the various 88GS campaigns are disturbing the peace and could cause national disintegration, appealing to the GOB to stop them. They fear the regime would then use this pretext to take action against the 88GS leaders and supporters to fulfill the "people's desire." ¶10. (SBU) The press conference, which was broadcast on national television on the evening of November 2 and transcribed verbatim in daily newspapers, revealed a slightly feistier press corps than usual and a Minister of Information who had trouble controlling his temper. A reporter for the weekly "Snap Shot Journal" asked whether UN U/SYG Gambari would be allowed to meet political prisoners Aung San Suu Kyi and Min Ko Naing. Kyaw Hsan replied, "He will only meet national leaders, because he was invited by national leaders," and claimed that Gambari had never requested to visit Aung San Suu Kyi or Min Ko Naing. The same reporter asked the Minister why an NLD member participating in the 88GS petition campaign had been "framed" for conducting an illegal lottery. The Minister stressed the arrest was for gambling, because "if we went to make arrests for the signature campaign, there are so many people we could arrest." The reporter's third question, about recent surges in the price of onions in local markets, prompted the Minister to stalk off the stage while agricultural officials attempted to explain GOB efforts to address the issue. ¶11. (SBU) A reporter for Myanmar Times also provoked the Minister's ire by asking what sort of opinion polls the regime uses to back its claim that public support for the NLD is declining and that political development is only possible with Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners in detention. In his reply, Kyaw Hsan blamed the NLD for halting foreign investment and loans to Burma and repeatedly asked the reporter, "Do you like them? Do you support them?" ¶12. (C) COMMENT: The 88GS movement has touched many regime RANGOON 00001624 003.2 OF 003 nerves with their successful "wear white" and petition campaigns (reftels) by making it easy for ordinary Burmese people to participate in their drives without raising suspicion, and they are doing the same with their week of prayer. They scheduled the prayer campaign to end on November 4, a day when millions could participate as part of their normal holy day activities. Authorities will find this difficult to prevent, so they are issuing stern warnings and threats in advance. Although the 88GS ensure that their activities are both legal and peaceful, the regime is letting them know that their leaders' legal fate and the potential for further arrests depend on the reaction to their latest threats. If U/SYG Gambari fails to meet with a 88GS representative when he visits Burma or to acknowledge the students' role in uniting the opposition, he will miss the main story unfolding in Burma today. END COMMENT. STOLTZ