TRYING TO GET A POLITICAL DIALOGUE GOING IN BURMA

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 001609 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2016 TAGS: PGOV BM UN SUBJECT: TRYING TO GET A POLITICAL DIALOGUE GOING IN BURMA Classified By: CDA Shari Villarosa for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) confidants have proposed a means to resume a political dialogue, which UN U/SYG Gambari might suggest to Than Shwe when they next meet in Burma. Apparently ASSK wrote a letter to Than Shwe in 2004 proposing a way forward whereby she would step back from the NLD party and offer her services to unify Burmese behind some broadly acceptable political arrangements. At the time, Than Shwe reportedly rejected ASSK's letter as insufficiently respectful. Her retort, according to her doctor (Dr. Tin Myo Win aka Douglas),was how respectful does she need to be to someone who has never kept his promises. Nevertheless, fearing a lost opportunity should Gambari fail to address political issues when he visits, Leon de Riedmattan believes he has persuaded UN Resrep Charles Petrie that this letter might offer a way to begin a political dialogue. ¶2. (C) De Riedmattan served for many years as a liaison between ASSK and the military, primarily Khin Nyunt. In that capacity he gained the confidence of ASSK, but once Khin Nyunt was deposed in 2004, his utility to the other generals became less welcome. Earlier this year, his visa to continue living in Rangoon was denied, although he has been permitted to return for regular "social visits" every few months. He has spent the past two weeks in Rangoon speaking with as many people as he could, including ASSK's doctor, NLD activists, and various diplomatic and UN contacts. While some Burmese exiles claim that ASSK would never negotiate with the military, both de Riedmattan and Douglas, asserted to Charge recently that she has long indicated her willingness to do so. Douglas cited her frequent discussions with senior military officers during the Khin Nyunt era and various NLD statements through the years, including its offer earlier this year to recognize the military as the de facto government. ¶3. (C) Both Douglas and de Riedmattan want to forestall international pressure to endorse the National Convention as the only political option at this time, effectively abandoning the pro-democracy activists. De Riedmattan acknowledged waning interest among Europeans in demanding political change as "too hard." Instead, they would prefer to focus on humanitarian assistance and just hope that political change would come in time. De Riedmattan said various people in New York had gotten to Gambari with this message. He claimed to have persuaded Charles Petrie that it would be a terrible mistake for Gambari to ignore political issues when he visits Rangoon. He said that Petrie would try to arrange a meeting between Gambari and de Riedmattan in Bangkok before he travels to Rangoon. De Riedmattan also said, contrary to conventional wisdom, that Than Shwe had no particular unwillingness in speaking with ASSK, but suspected Khin Nyunt of conspiring with her to advance his own interests. De Riedmattan also plans to travel to the UK-hosted Wilton Park meeting November 2-4 to insure political issues get discussed there as well, even though they do not now appear on the meeting agenda. ¶4. (C) Comment: Until ASSK is free to say directly what she thinks, other well-intentioned, but not necessarily authoritative, individuals will claim to speak for her. Many Burmese believe there is significant willingness among senior military officers to consider other political options, but no one will risk the wrath of Than Shwe. So we need to keep pushing for Than Shwe and ASSK to talk together and figure out a way forward. Gambari appears to be the only one who is likely to speak directly with both individuals anytime soon, and it would be a terrible mistake for him to ignore the very difficult political issues that have brought Burma to its current deteriorated state. However, all the pressure should not be on ASSK, rather Gambari should pressure Than Shwe to accommodate her as well, otherwise Than Shwe will go down in history as the man responsible for Burma's tragic decline. He reportedly does care about his legacy, and is under the illusion that he has united the country and built it up. That illusion should be burst. VILLAROSA