KNU AND SPDC RE-ESTABLISH COMMUNICATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001536

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PREL BM
SUBJECT: KNU AND SPDC RE-ESTABLISH COMMUNICATIONS

REF: A. RANGOON 1520


B. RANGOON 1065

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Classified By: POLOFF Dean Tidwell for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The recent visit to Rangoon by a team
representing the Karen National Union (KNU) was not to
negotiate a cease-fire agreement, but to re-establish
communication links for future negotiations with the regime.
The KNU representatives said they would return in two to
three weeks, but few expect rapid progress. The visit
confirms that Major General Ye Myint, Chief of Military
Security Affairs, is resuming the role of ethnic negotiator
held by his deposed predecessor Khin Nyunt. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Dr. Rebecca Dee (PROTECT),a Karen community leader
based in Rangoon, briefed POLOFF on the visit to Rangoon by
representatives of the Karen National Union (KNU) during the
first week of October. Dr. Rebecca and her husband, Dr.
Simon Tha, interacted closely with the KNU team while they
were in Rangoon. The team comprised Colonel Paw Doh,
Lieutenant Colonel Kyaw Ni (Johnny),Major Yin Nu, and Major
Sho Ro, a nephew of KNU General Bo Mya. All except the
general's nephew were from the Karen National Liberation
Army's (KNLA) 7th Brigade, which recently reconciled with KNU
leadership after publicly splitting over peace talks with the
SPDC (ref B). KNLA sources in Mae Sot claimed that the team
traveled to Rangoon with the blessing of the KNU. Dr.
Rebecca confirmed that the team carried a letter from KNU
President Ba Thin to Senior General Than Shwe to introduce
the team and to verify that they truly represented the KNU.


3. (C) Dr. Rebecca said media reports that the SPDC
intentionally made the KNU representatives wait several days
before meeting them were not true. She claimed that the KNU
group departed Mae Sot on September 29, later than originally
scheduled, and drove all night to reach Rangoon on September

30. Major General Ye Myint, Burma's Chief of Military
Security Affairs, was scheduled to fly to Pakistan that
morning, but he met the team briefly en route to the airport
to request them to wait in Rangoon until he returned.


4. (C) Ye Myint returned to Rangoon on October 4 and met with
the KNU team on October 5. Dr. Rebecca said that the KNU
group was not a high-level delegation, but a group tasked to
establish formal communication links between the SPDC and the
KNU. The SPDC confirmed to the team that Ye Myint would be
their POC with the regime and that he would report on the
negotiations to Vice Senior General Maung Aye. The KNU team
departed Rangoon on October 6 and promised to return in two
to three weeks, although Dr. Rebecca speculated the SPDC did
not expect them to return immediately.


5. (C) Post-visit media reports claimed that the earlier
"gentlemen's agreement" struck between former Prime Minister
Khin Nyunt and the KNU had been canceled during the meeting
and negotiations would begin again from scratch. Rebecca
disputed this account, stating that both sides had only
agreed to stop referring to the earlier understanding as a
"gentlemen's agreement," but would still follow its key
points while negotiating a more permanent accord.


6. (C) COMMENT: The SPDC has clearly given Major General Ye
Myint a green light in leading cease-fire negotiations with
the KNU and the Karenni National Progressive Party (ref A).
The KNU and the KNLA have also clearly patched up their
differences over negotiations with the regime (ref B) and now
seem prepared to negotiate from a unified position. Although
past peace talks between the regime and the KNU have broken
down repeatedly, Karen leaders are battle-weary and seem to
be more eager than ever to negotiate a durable cease-fire

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agreement before their old guard passes from the scene. END
COMMENT.
STOLTZ