DEADLINE LOOMS FOR GOB ACTION ON FORCED LABOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001518 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS; GENEVA FOR LABOR ATTACHE:JCHAMBERLAIN E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2016 TAGS: ELAB ECON PGOV PHUM BM SUBJECT: DEADLINE LOOMS FOR GOB ACTION ON FORCED LABOR REF: A. RANGOON 1382 ¶B. RANGOON 1376 ¶C. RANGOON 963 ¶D. RANGOON 806 ¶E. GENEVA 1560 RANGOON 00001518 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Econoff TLManlowe for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary: ILO Liaison Officer Richard Horsey has been able to maintain regular contact with the Ministry of Labor over the past three months and has begun discussions on a mechanism to address forced labor charges in Burma. Horsey said the GOB's reaction to the draft text has been generally positive, although the government continues to restrict his travel within Burma. Horsey said that the ILO Deputy Director could travel to Burma at the end of October or in early November, just prior to the next ILO Governing Board (GB) meeting in mid-November, to finalize an agreement. The main outstanding issue concerns establishing the right of the ILO Liaison Officer to travel freely throughout the country. Horsey said it is difficult to determine whether the GOB's recent flexibility on forced labor issues reflects real intent to meet international standards or to serve as minimal steps to demonstrate progress to the UNSC and U/SYG Gambari on his next visit to Burma. End summary. GOB Shows Some Flexibility -------------- ¶2. (C) On October 12, Richard Horsey, ILO Liaison Officer, briefed Charge on GOB progress in meeting the conditions set by the ILO International Labor Conference (ILC) in June (Ref E). The first two conditions, a moratorium on persecution of forced labor claimants and release of prominent labor prisoners, was met with the release of Su Su Nway and Aung Myint and the recent dismissal of the GOB's case against three villagers who reported on forced labor abuses (Refs A-D). The third condition, agreement on an acceptable mechanism to address future forced labor claims, is now under discussion. Horsey has pursued this issue since June through regular meetings and exchanges of notes with Ministry of Labor officials. He told the Charge that GOB reaction to his draft agreement has been generally positive, and he has held weekly discussions on it with GOB officials. ¶3. (C) According to Horsey, the GOB has accepted some important conditions. These include a promise to not prosecute forced labor claimants, even if their claims turn out to be false, and an agreement that the ILO office in Burma could expand in the future if needed. Based on this recent willingness to engage, Horsey said the ILO plans to send a mission to Burma this month to try to negotiate a compromise on remaining differences and finalize the agreement. A key remaining area for resolution is the right of the ILO Liaison Officer to travel around the country and speak with people freely. Horsey said the ILO would not send a mission here unless the GOB shows some flexibility on this key issue. Horsey has negotiated this far with the Labor Ministry, which seems to have authority to negotiate most of the issues. If the issue of travel access cannot be resolved soon, Horsey would request U/SYG Gambari to press for an agreement on this point in a meeting with Senior General Than Shwe. Deadline Pressure -------------- ¶4. (C) If the GOB does show willingness to negotiate this issue, Horsey said that an ILO delegation could arrive as early as October 16-20 to wrap up negotiations on the mechanism to report and prosecute cases of forced labor. Agreement needs to be reached by October or early November to be presented to the ILO Governing Board when it takes up Burma around November 15. ¶5. (C) Horsey speculated that the GOB's recent flexibility on labor issues may be driven by other factors, particularly the ongoing UN Security Council discussion of Burma and another visit by U/SYG Gambari, expected in November. The regime realizes, he said, that it needs to show progress in this RANGOON 00001518 002.2 OF 002 area to respond to assurances it made to Gambari in May and the ILO in June. Horsey added that China may also be pushing the GOB to cooperate on forced labor, citing recent public statements by the Chinese that Burma is making progress in this area. He speculated that the Chinese may be making such public comments to increase pressure on the regime to cooperate with the ILO. ¶6. (C) Horsey would not be surprised it the regime continued to stall, but emphasized that the looming ILO Governing Board meeting is a firm deadline. "The possibility of doing just enough to slip through is slim," he said. "The ILO conditions are clear. We either have agreement on a mechanism or we do not. If we do not, the Governing Board will react strongly." ¶7. (C) Horsey acknowledged that the GOB remains reluctant to agree to all of the ILO's terms. The Charge said that some in the regime still believe they have the right to force labor and that they should not be subject to interference by outside parties. Horsey agreed, but felt that the regime's desire to present a more positive image to the UN offered a rare opportunity to resolve this issue within the next four weeks. He admitted that, while obtaining an agreement would be a major accomplishment, if the GOB refused to accept the agreement's underlying principles and follow through with investigations and persecutions, it would be just another piece of paper. However, Horsey stressed, it would be an important commitment by the regime to stop forced labor, and would strengthen the legal hand of those willing to challenge it. ¶8. (C) Comment: The regime released two political prisoners, Su Su Nway and Aung Myint, in response to pressure by the ILO and Gambari. However, it has recently arrested five prominent student leaders and made no progress on addressing other political and humanitarian issues raised by Gambari. U/SYG Gambari's next visit roughly coincides with the next ILO Governing Board meeting, forcing the regime to make a hard choice between agreeing to a mechanism with the ILO that seriously addresses forced labor or risking further international condemnation. In order to monitor GOB compliance, the ILO country liaison must be allowed unfettered in-country travel and access. The ILO's insistence on this issue and its use of specific conditions and fixed deadlines has forced the GOB to take action. The effectiveness of this approach should be pointed out to Gambari, so that he can achieve concrete results during his next visit. End comment. VILLAROSA