INDEPENDENCE DAY: REGIME SUBDUED, OPPOSITION BUOYED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000015 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS, DS/IP; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ECON PINS ASEC BM SUBJECT: INDEPENDENCE DAY: REGIME SUBDUED, OPPOSITION BUOYED REF: A. RANGOON 1424 (NOTAL) ¶B. RANGOON 1095 RANGOON 00000015 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: CDA Shari Villarosa for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Burmese military regime and the democratic opposition commemorated Burma's independence anniversary on January 4 with sharply contrasting and separate events. The SPDC focused on criticizing those who oppose the regime and on heralding its own achievements since assuming power in 1988. Meanwhile, opposition leaders lamented that authoritarian rule had reversed the progress and political rights that independence had yielded 58 years ago, leading to an "uncontrolled downward spiral" of the economy, education, health, and overall social conditions. Opposition members and supporters, nonetheless, appeared in high spirits on Independence Day. Party leaders indicated that recent UNSC and ASEAN discussions on Burma had given them hope that the international community, with U.S. prodding, finally has come together to pressure the regime toward an inclusive political dialogue. End Summary. Bridges, Dams, and Explosive Devices -------------- ¶2. (U) The Burmese regime commemorated the country's 58th anniversary of independence on January 4 with minimal fanfare. Lt Gen Myint Shwe, symbolic of his rise in prominence as chief intelligence officer and commander of the Rangoon military region, chaired an early-morning official flag raising ceremony and read SPDC Chairman Than Shwe's holiday greetings. Than Shwe's statement criticized "some big nations" (read: the U.S. and the U.K.) for interfering in the domestic affairs of others, and trumpeted the regime's achievements since assuming power in 1988, especially noting the completion of new bridges and dams. ¶3. (U) The regime hosted an evening dinner and cultural show for senior officers, cabinet officials, and diplomats. Officials, however, kept the diplomats carefully segregated from the Burmese attendees to minimize interaction and lined them up in protocol order for Than Shwe, his wife, and entourage to review. Authorities then marched the diplomats into a banquet hall and seated them among senior Burmese officers and officials, few of whom spoke any English. No speeches, toasts, or even playing of the national anthem occurred. ¶4. (SBU) Following dinner, everyone filed into an auditorium (seated in strict protocol order) for a cultural performance of traditional ethnic Burman dance and song. The final number was a tribute to the military with a woman urging her man forward into battle, while a video played in the background showing all the dams and bridges built by the regime. At the conclusion, the diplomats were marched out one door to their cars while the rest of the audience exited on the opposite side. All the hallways to and from the banquet room and auditorium were lined with young soldiers in full combat gear and automatic weapons. The diplomats agreed among themselves that the weapons were not loaded due to the leaders' paranoia. ¶5. (SBU) On the eve of independence day, January 3, two small explosive devices detonated in downtown Bago (Pegu),a small city 50 miles north of Rangoon. According to Embassy police contacts, the devices caused no injuries or serious damage. Authorities allegedly arrested one student activist, whom the GOB had previously questioned in connection with the more serious May 7 bombings in Rangoon. Privately, GOB officials blamed exiled radicals associated with the Karen National Union (KNU) and All Burma Student Democratic Front (ABSDF) for attempting to disrupt Independence Day activities. No organization or individual, however, has claimed RANGOON 00000015 002.2 OF 003 responsibility and post has no information that the Bago incidents are linked to previous information regarding the potential threat of explosions around the New Year period (ref A). Shame Them Into Action -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The political opposition commemorated independence with thinly veiled, though significant, criticism of the military regime and its failure to restore democracy to Burma. The "Group of Political Veterans," a loose organization of elderly retired government and military officials -- many of whom served with independence hero General Aung San and/or with U Nu, Burma's last elected Prime Minister -- hosted a spirited event for several hundred democracy supporters and activists, including former student leaders of the 1988 pro-democracy uprising. Charge and P/E chief were the only diplomats in attendance. ¶7. (U) The Veteran Politicians recalled that the country's patriots had sacrificed "life and property" to secure independence in 1948 and yet, "due to various suppressions," the Burmese people had lost their democratic rights. The Veterans appealed for the SPDC regime to seek national reconciliation through dialogue, adding that it is "shameful" that the international community must get involved to settle Burma's problems. Group leader Thakhin Thein Pe said that the Veterans welcomed the recent ASEAN decision to send a delegation to Burma, noting that it could help persuade skeptics on the UN Security Council (UNSC),such as Russia, who question the notion that Burma poses a threat to regional security. Thein Pe cautioned, however, that the Veterans had low expectations for the Malaysian-led delegation, given that Malaysia spearheaded efforts to secure Burma's ASEAN membership and frequently advocates against interfering in Burma's internal affairs. ¶8. (SBU) During the speeches, a former NLD youth leader affixed photos of Aung San Suu Kyi, inscribed "Set Her Free," to the lapels of party leaders and participants. NLD leaders told us that the gesture, which the regime considers a provocation, was not a party-sanctioned activity. Nonetheless, the Veteran Politicians were delighted and many participants wore their photos throughout the day. The Regime's "Uncontrolled Downward Spiral" -------------- ¶9. (U) Later in the day, the National League for Democracy (NLD),Burma's leading opposition party, hosted a similar event for several hundred party members and supporters. The Charge, the British Ambassador, and the acting UN resident coordinator were the only diplomatic chiefs of mission in attendance. Representatives from the French, German, Japanese, and Australian embassies also attended. The NLD reiterated a call for the SPDC to hold "substantive political dialogue with the NLD, which is mandated by the people, and all other ethnic nationalities." The party also demanded that the regime open NLD offices and release NLD leaders Aung San Suu Kyi and U Tin Oo, Shan democrats Hkun Htun Oo and Sai Nyunt Lwin, and all political prisoners, including Members-elect of Parliament. ¶10. (U) NLD Chairman U Aung Shwe called for a tripartite dialogue, to effect a transition to democracy, through the formation of a "supreme leading body" -- comprised of the SPDC, all political parties that won seats in the 1990 legislative election, and the ethnic nationalities. The NLD leader lamented that the demise of democracy in Burma had led to the "uncontrolled downward spiral" of the economy, education, health, and social conditions. RANGOON 00000015 003.2 OF 003 Comment: UNSC and ASEAN Action Give Hope -------------- ¶11. (C) In contrast to the opposition's beleaguered and downcast mood in the aftermath of the regime's May 2003 attack on Aung San Suu Kyi, and at most events in the interim (ref B),the political parties and activists appeared in high spirits on Independence Day. Opposition party leaders and members told us that the UNSC's recent discussions of the situation in Burma, and ASEAN's unprecedented expressions of frustration and impatience with the regime, have given them hope that the international community finally has come together to pressure the SPDC to loosen its stranglehold on the opposition and begin an inclusive political dialogue. Pro-democracy activists, who greeted us with applause at their events, also expressed appreciation for the leading role that the United States has played in seeking a broader international consensus on Burma. In contrast, the SPDC's celebration seemed subdued with no public events staged. End Comment. VILLAROSA