BURMA: UPDATE ON DETAINED PRO-DEMOCRACY LEADERS

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STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: UPDATE ON DETAINED PRO-DEMOCRACY LEADERS


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Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Nine days after the detention of Min Ko
Naing, Ko Ko Gyi, and Htay Kywe and five days after the
arrest of Pyone Cho and Min Zeya, the regime is taking a
harder line, while public frustration is rising. Articles
appearing today in the regime's mouthpiece daily paper
indicate the GOB is preparing to charge the detained 88
Generation Student leaders under the Unlawful Association
Act, which carries a maximum sentence of seven years, a
scenario Min Ko Naing had earlier feared. The organization's
interim leadership plans to continue their petition campaign
until October 16, after which they are considering mass
public demonstrations. Some opposition members speculate
that the regime has detained the five leaders to use them as
bargaining chips during U/SYG Gambari's next visit, releasing
them afterward to show their willingness to free political
prisoners while continuing to detain Aung San Suu Kyi. End
Summary.


2. (C) Members of the 88 Generation Students are growing
more disturbed as the regime continues to publish articles in
government-run daily newspapers accusing the detained leaders
of having political and financial links to "illegal
associations" outside the country. Today's New Light of
Myanmar cited the regime's "evidence," obtained from an
intercepted letter addressed to Ko Ko Gyi, that the group
received cash from opposition groups based outside Burma.
The article could be a sign that the regime is preparing to
charge the five leaders under the Unlawful Association Act,
which carries a maximum sentence of seven years imprisonment.


3. (C) According to the 88 Generation leadership, this was a
scenario Min Ko Naing feared most before his arrest, and they
have warned their members to be very cautious about contacts.
On October 4, Mya Aye, Min Ko Naing's closest friend, who is
acting as interim leader of the 88 Generation Students, told
emboffs that the students have already collected 13,000
signatures on petitions calling for the leaders' release.
Among those publicly supporting the signature campaign are
the famous writer Ludu Daw Ahmar and the dissident comedian
Zarganar. The signature campaign is reaching far beyond
Rangoon to townships as far away as Mandalay, Mogok, and
Pegu.


4. (C) Mya Aye said that the outside media has been
especially helpful. Exile radio broadcasters are publicizing
the signature campaign and the exile media is publishing
interviews with families of the five detained leaders that
highlight the suffering their prior and current imprisonments
cause. Some of our NLD and student contacts speculate that
the regime has detained the five to use them as bargaining
chips when U/SYG Gambari returns to Burma on his next visit.
In their scenario, the regime would release the five leaders
to illustrate their willingness to free political prisoners
and deflect discussion of freeing Aung San Suu Kyi.


5. (C) Mya Aye told emboffs that the 88 Generation Students
are considering mass demonstrations after October 16, the
deadline they have set to end their signature campaign. They
emphasized that they are carefully weighing the potential
consequences, including the risk of violence and mass arrests
should they decide to proceed. NLD activist Su Su Nwe still
plans to personally lead a demonstration in front of Rangoon
City Hall if the five are not released. She has told the 88
Generation leadership that she knows she will likely be
arrested again, but is willing to take the risk.


6. (C) Comment: the latest media articles indicate the
regime is preparing a case against the five leaders and will
eventually charge and imprison them again. Min Ko Naing, Ko

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Ko Gyi, and Htay Kywe knew that they could be arrested again
at any time and left specific instructions for their
organization's members to continue participation in human
rights and capacity building activities, including American
Center seminars. The detained 88 Generation leaders were
building productive channels for the energy of young
democracy activists who were growing increasingly frustrated
with the inaction of the elderly NLD "Uncles." At the same
time, the student leaders worked hard to coordinate and
cooperate with the NLD and other pro-democracy groups to help
unite pro-democracy movements in Burma, the military regime's
worst fear. Now, with their leaders re-arrested, the new 88
Generation leaders are angry and frustrated, but committed to
continuing their strategies. End Comment.

STOLTZ