BURMA REGIME PRESSURES CEASE-FIRE GROUPS TO OPPOSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001475 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BM SUBJECT: BURMA REGIME PRESSURES CEASE-FIRE GROUPS TO OPPOSE UNSC REF: A. RANGOON 1461 ¶B. RANGOON 1436 ¶C. RANGOON 1432 ¶D. RANGOON 1377 ¶E. RANGOON 1363 RANGOON 00001475 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: PolOff Dean Tidwell for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Official GOB media is publishing daily notices by ethnic cease-fire groups that condemn the UNSC decision to place Burma on its agenda. Several cease-fire groups told us privately that they issued the notices under pressure and privately thanked the United States for its initiative. They told us that they support placing Burma on the UNSC agenda. They hope increased international scrutiny of Burma will ultimately push the regime to allow more inclusive governance. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Since late September, regime-controlled media has printed daily statements by various ethnic cease-fire groups condemning the U.S.-sponsored UNSC decision to place Burma on its agenda. Most recently, a statement signed by the United Wa State Army (UWSA) Chairman Pauk You Chan (Pau Yu Hsiang) appeared in the October 2 New Light of Myanmar. It said, "We oppose and condemn the interference in Myanmar's internal affairs by the United States, using the UN as a tool." The terminology is almost identical in all of the cease-fire groups' announcements. ¶3. (C) During a recent visit to Kayah State (septel),Joint Secretary of the Kayah New Land Party (KNLP) Saw Lwin passed SIPDIS a letter to poloff stating, "We support what the USA has done in the UNSC and thank you for this as well. We had to make a declaration because we were under pressure of the SPDC." Enclosed in the letter was a copy of a statement released by the KNLP saying that 1) Burma's problems should be addressed by political forces inside the country through dialogue based on equality, 2) Therefore the KNLP opposes the decision to put Burma on the UNSC agenda because such action is unnecessary, (i.e. genuine dialogue is needed.) The official GOB media has not yet published the KNLP statement. ¶4. (C) General Secretary Dr. Tu Jar of the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) informed us that the Northern Region Commander in Myitkyina urged the KIO to issue a similar declaration. On September 26, the KIO wrote a letter to the SPDC declining to issue a statement as it could bring international pressure on the KIO. The letter assured the SPDC that the KIO would continue to participate in the National Convention process, but urged the SPDC to complete its "road map" quickly. The SPDC has not responded to the KIO's refusal, but the KIO is worried that the GOB may impose new restrictions on the Kachin people in retaliation. ¶5. (C) Dr. Tu Jar told us he believes the regime is pressuring the smallest, least powerful cease-fire groups who cannot afford to say "no" to sign statements, but has not yet approached major cease-fire groups, such as the New Mon State Party. The SPDC knows that such groups would not likely support its UNSC position. He expressed his personal opinion that placing Burma on the UNSC agenda is a reasonable move, particularly since 10 members voted for it. He said all ethnic minority groups hope that UNSC discussions on Burma will focus more international attention on ethnic minority rights, autonomy, and power sharing, issues that the regime has so far refused to address directly. ¶6. (C) In a conversation with embassy staff, a UWSA spokesperson in Rangoon said that the Burmese military's Northeast Regional Commander in Lashio asked the UWSA to RANGOON 00001475 002.2 OF 002 issue a statement, but that the UWSA did not feel under pressure to do so. He said the UWSA's statement was accurate and reflected the opinion of the UWSA Executive Committee, which feels that any future UNSC resolution on Burma could destabilize the country, cause a resumption of civil war, and increase the misery of ethnic minorities. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: The KNLP worded the statement it was pressured to make to point out that Burma's problems result from a lack of open dialogue within the country. As a result, the regime is unlikely to publish it unedited. Other groups will have even less editorial license. The UWSA and its drug lord leaders are no friends of the United States and, while the Wa guard their autonomy from the regime, their opinions parallel those of their chief benefactor, China. But private statements from ethnic groups show that, despite intense regime pressure, they join the NLD and democracy activists (ref D) in praising UNSC attention to Burma and resulting international attention. END COMMENT. STOLTZ