UN REMAINS CAUTIOUS IN BURMA

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 001474 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BM SUBJECT: UN REMAINS CAUTIOUS IN BURMA Classified By: CDA a.i. Karl Stoltz for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. The UN Resident Coordinator (UNRC) in Burma shared with us yesterday an internal UN report on U/SYG Gambari's Friday September 29 UNSC briefing, which indicates that Gambari's next visit to Burma may focus more on continuing a dialogue with the ruling military regime than pushing for tangible progress on human rights and democracy. Gambari's silence on the regime's detention of five prominent political prisoners last week is also a sign that the UN may be growing reluctant to criticize the regime's backsliding since Gambari's last visit. The UN Resident Coordinator also said that he skipped NLD's September 27 anniversary event and planned to avoid future public events at NLD so the UN could claim political neutrality and also escape attending events hosted by the USDA, the regime's mass political party. End Summary. ¶2. (C) During a Korean national day reception on October 3, UN Resident Coordinator Charles Petrie passed Charge a.i. a sanitized copy, without author identified, of an internal UN report on U/SYG Gambari's September 29 speech on Burma to the UNSC. The correspondence comments that the version of the speech Gambari gave to the Security Council was considerably different than an earlier draft that had circulated at the UN. Gambari's final statement had been "toned down" and there was a "stronger emphasis on engagement and the need for ongoing dialogue" with the GOB. The document points out that Gambari's conclusion, rather than identifying concrete results for his next visit, emphasized the need for progress on "key issues." ¶3. (C) When CDA a.i. asked Petrie why no UN representative attended the NLD's September 27 anniversary ceremony, as they have done every year in the past, Petrie informed us that he had made a decision to avoid attending NLD's public events so he could also turn down regime requests that the UN attend ceremonies hosted by the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA),which many expect the regime to declare an official political party in the near future. It would be better for the UN to be seen as apolitical, Petrie said, rather than attending the NLD's events while skipping USDA events. Petrie added that he still intended to call on NLD leaders periodically through one-on-one meetings rather than public events. ¶4. (C) 88 Generation Student leaders have reached out to contact a broad range of local diplomats this week to seek international support for their arrested leaders. They told emboffs this week that they are discouraged by other missions' lack of interest and the fact that only the U.S., U.K., Canada, and UN Special Rapporteur for Human Rights Pinheiro have released statements calling for the release of the five detained student leaders. ¶5. (C) Comment: Before there was Aung San Suu Kyi, there was Min Ko Naing. The demonstrations he led in 1988 resulted in the creation of the NLD, and his renewed detention is sending shockwaves through the student pro-democracy movement that was beginning to reorganize itself and benefit from his leadership after his release from prison in 2005. Our recent interactions with UN officials and many in the diplomatic community hint that the regime's latest move against the pro-democracy activists has stirred more caution than outrage. The ruling regime has years of experience avoiding dialogue and resisting pressure to compromise. The UNRC's decision to avoid public engagement with the NLD and the U/SYG's silence on the latest student detentions only helps reinforce the regime's confidence that they can crack down on the opposition with impunity. End comment. STOLTZ