UN REMAINS CAUTIOUS IN BURMA

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 001474

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BM
SUBJECT: UN REMAINS CAUTIOUS IN BURMA


Classified By: CDA a.i. Karl Stoltz for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. The UN Resident Coordinator (UNRC) in Burma
shared with us yesterday an internal UN report on U/SYG
Gambari's Friday September 29 UNSC briefing, which indicates
that Gambari's next visit to Burma may focus more on
continuing a dialogue with the ruling military regime than
pushing for tangible progress on human rights and democracy.
Gambari's silence on the regime's detention of five prominent
political prisoners last week is also a sign that the UN may
be growing reluctant to criticize the regime's backsliding
since Gambari's last visit. The UN Resident Coordinator also
said that he skipped NLD's September 27 anniversary event and
planned to avoid future public events at NLD so the UN could
claim political neutrality and also escape attending events
hosted by the USDA, the regime's mass political party. End
Summary.


2. (C) During a Korean national day reception on October 3,
UN Resident Coordinator Charles Petrie passed Charge a.i. a
sanitized copy, without author identified, of an internal UN
report on U/SYG Gambari's September 29 speech on Burma to the
UNSC. The correspondence comments that the version of the
speech Gambari gave to the Security Council was considerably
different than an earlier draft that had circulated at the
UN. Gambari's final statement had been "toned down" and
there was a "stronger emphasis on engagement and the need for
ongoing dialogue" with the GOB. The document points out that
Gambari's conclusion, rather than identifying concrete
results for his next visit, emphasized the need for progress
on "key issues."


3. (C) When CDA a.i. asked Petrie why no UN representative
attended the NLD's September 27 anniversary ceremony, as they
have done every year in the past, Petrie informed us that he
had made a decision to avoid attending NLD's public events so
he could also turn down regime requests that the UN attend
ceremonies hosted by the Union Solidarity and Development
Association (USDA),which many expect the regime to declare
an official political party in the near future. It would be
better for the UN to be seen as apolitical, Petrie said,
rather than attending the NLD's events while skipping USDA
events. Petrie added that he still intended to call on NLD
leaders periodically through one-on-one meetings rather than
public events.


4. (C) 88 Generation Student leaders have reached out to
contact a broad range of local diplomats this week to seek
international support for their arrested leaders. They told
emboffs this week that they are discouraged by other
missions' lack of interest and the fact that only the U.S.,
U.K., Canada, and UN Special Rapporteur for Human Rights
Pinheiro have released statements calling for the release of
the five detained student leaders.


5. (C) Comment: Before there was Aung San Suu Kyi, there
was Min Ko Naing. The demonstrations he led in 1988 resulted
in the creation of the NLD, and his renewed detention is
sending shockwaves through the student pro-democracy movement
that was beginning to reorganize itself and benefit from his
leadership after his release from prison in 2005. Our recent
interactions with UN officials and many in the diplomatic
community hint that the regime's latest move against the
pro-democracy activists has stirred more caution than
outrage. The ruling regime has years of experience avoiding
dialogue and resisting pressure to compromise. The UNRC's
decision to avoid public engagement with the NLD and the
U/SYG's silence on the latest student detentions only helps
reinforce the regime's confidence that they can crack down on
the opposition with impunity. End comment.
STOLTZ