Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06RANGOON1417
2006-09-26 00:33:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Rangoon
how-toVZCZCXRO9860 OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH DE RUEHGO #1417/01 2690033 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 260033Z SEP 06 FM AMEMBASSY RANGOON TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5180 INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1136 RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 9903 RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 4335 RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1798 RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 3531 RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0505 RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 7002 RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 4621 RUEHCI/AMCONSUL CALCUTTA 0908 RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 0912 RUDKIA/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 0635 RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 2861 RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0513 RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001417
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV BM
SUBJECT: NO MOVEMENT AT THE TOP IN BURMA
RANGOON 00001417 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001417
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV BM
SUBJECT: NO MOVEMENT AT THE TOP IN BURMA
RANGOON 00001417 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (C) SUMMARY: On September 22, Agence France-Press (AFP)
wire service reported that the regime's top two generals
planned to hand over their military roles to subordinates.
The report has so far proved to be groundless. GOB
controlled media continue to show both commanders in uniform
performing their normal duties. Rumors continue to circulate
that the regime may be about to transition its ruling
military apparatus to a civilian administration by replacing
local and district military SPDC chairmen with loyal,
hand-picked civilians who will report to the Ministry of Home
Affairs rather than to the Ministry of Defense. While AFP
appears to have jumped the gun with its September 22 story,
rumors of significant changes continue to surface despite the
regime's efforts to keep a tight hold on information. END
SUMMARY.
2. (U) On the evening of September 22 (local time),an AFP
report circulated that at the SPDC's quarterly meeting in Nay
Pyi Taw, Senior General Than Shwe had turned over his role as
Commander-in-Chief of Burma's armed forces to his trusted
subordinate and SPDC number three, General Thura Shwe Mann.
Than Shwe reportedly retained his positions of Head of State
and Chairman of the SPDC. The story reported that at the
same meeting, Vice Senior General Maung Aye also handed over
his positions as Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Defense
Services to Southwest Regional Commander Major General Thura
Myint Aung, while retaining his post of Vice-Chairman of the
SPDC.
3. (C) AFP's Senior Rangoon Correspondent Khin Maung Thwin,
apparently trusting his Nay Pyi Taw sources, decided to try
to get a scoop and run the unverified story. The story
spread through Rangoon like wildfire and Singapore's
international television service Channel News Asia and Radio
Free Asia both picked up the AFP report. Other news
correspondents in Rangoon counseled caution and Embassy
sources in Nay Pyi Taw said they could not verify the report.
The regime's nightly news broadcast on September 22
contained no news about any changes in its military
leadership, referred to Than Shwe by his military title, and
showed him conducting his usual government meetings.
4. (C) Htay Aung, an exile analyst of the Burmese military,
has predicted for more than a year that Thura Shwe Mann is
destined for the commander-in-chief position, so perhaps a
combination of wishful thinking and the regime's chokehold on
information led to the premature report by AFP. Local AFP
staff today insist that they are standing by their story.
(AFP was also the first news agency to report Prime Minister
Khin Nyunt's fall from power in 2004; that story was
ultimately vindicated.)
5. (C) Additionally, there have been various reports in
exile and official media that township and village level
Peace and Development Council (PDC) chairpersons with
military affiliations are about to be replaced with civilians
equally loyal to the SPDC. A recent rumor has also surfaced
that this change will also take place at the division level
and that the division PDC chairpersons will now report to the
Ministry of Home Affairs rather than to the Ministry of
Defense. On the evening of September 24 our contacts
reported that all division level PDCs had been called to Nay
Pyi Taw for an urgent meeting.
6. (C) COMMENT: The regime held its quarterly military
meeting on September 11 and rumors of military reshuffles
usually spread wildly after these secret meetings. Thura
Shwe Mann is a strong contender to eventually become
Commander-in-Chief, but Than Shwe is unlikely to give up his
RANGOON 00001417 002.2 OF 002
military titles until he has a powerful civilian post to move
into. Thura Myint Aung, now the Southwest Division Regional
Commander (not Southeast, as some media reported) would be a
surprise candidate for a top role. He has a reputation for
being very corrupt and for using forced labor liberally when
he was the Southeast Region Commander based in Mawlamyine
(Moulmein),Mon State. Given the regime's penchant for
secrecy, the AFP report may have been a red herring, but is
also possible that it presages significant shuffles to come
at the top ranks of Burma's ruling generals. END COMMENT.
STOLTZ
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV BM
SUBJECT: NO MOVEMENT AT THE TOP IN BURMA
RANGOON 00001417 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (C) SUMMARY: On September 22, Agence France-Press (AFP)
wire service reported that the regime's top two generals
planned to hand over their military roles to subordinates.
The report has so far proved to be groundless. GOB
controlled media continue to show both commanders in uniform
performing their normal duties. Rumors continue to circulate
that the regime may be about to transition its ruling
military apparatus to a civilian administration by replacing
local and district military SPDC chairmen with loyal,
hand-picked civilians who will report to the Ministry of Home
Affairs rather than to the Ministry of Defense. While AFP
appears to have jumped the gun with its September 22 story,
rumors of significant changes continue to surface despite the
regime's efforts to keep a tight hold on information. END
SUMMARY.
2. (U) On the evening of September 22 (local time),an AFP
report circulated that at the SPDC's quarterly meeting in Nay
Pyi Taw, Senior General Than Shwe had turned over his role as
Commander-in-Chief of Burma's armed forces to his trusted
subordinate and SPDC number three, General Thura Shwe Mann.
Than Shwe reportedly retained his positions of Head of State
and Chairman of the SPDC. The story reported that at the
same meeting, Vice Senior General Maung Aye also handed over
his positions as Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Defense
Services to Southwest Regional Commander Major General Thura
Myint Aung, while retaining his post of Vice-Chairman of the
SPDC.
3. (C) AFP's Senior Rangoon Correspondent Khin Maung Thwin,
apparently trusting his Nay Pyi Taw sources, decided to try
to get a scoop and run the unverified story. The story
spread through Rangoon like wildfire and Singapore's
international television service Channel News Asia and Radio
Free Asia both picked up the AFP report. Other news
correspondents in Rangoon counseled caution and Embassy
sources in Nay Pyi Taw said they could not verify the report.
The regime's nightly news broadcast on September 22
contained no news about any changes in its military
leadership, referred to Than Shwe by his military title, and
showed him conducting his usual government meetings.
4. (C) Htay Aung, an exile analyst of the Burmese military,
has predicted for more than a year that Thura Shwe Mann is
destined for the commander-in-chief position, so perhaps a
combination of wishful thinking and the regime's chokehold on
information led to the premature report by AFP. Local AFP
staff today insist that they are standing by their story.
(AFP was also the first news agency to report Prime Minister
Khin Nyunt's fall from power in 2004; that story was
ultimately vindicated.)
5. (C) Additionally, there have been various reports in
exile and official media that township and village level
Peace and Development Council (PDC) chairpersons with
military affiliations are about to be replaced with civilians
equally loyal to the SPDC. A recent rumor has also surfaced
that this change will also take place at the division level
and that the division PDC chairpersons will now report to the
Ministry of Home Affairs rather than to the Ministry of
Defense. On the evening of September 24 our contacts
reported that all division level PDCs had been called to Nay
Pyi Taw for an urgent meeting.
6. (C) COMMENT: The regime held its quarterly military
meeting on September 11 and rumors of military reshuffles
usually spread wildly after these secret meetings. Thura
Shwe Mann is a strong contender to eventually become
Commander-in-Chief, but Than Shwe is unlikely to give up his
RANGOON 00001417 002.2 OF 002
military titles until he has a powerful civilian post to move
into. Thura Myint Aung, now the Southwest Division Regional
Commander (not Southeast, as some media reported) would be a
surprise candidate for a top role. He has a reputation for
being very corrupt and for using forced labor liberally when
he was the Southeast Region Commander based in Mawlamyine
(Moulmein),Mon State. Given the regime's penchant for
secrecy, the AFP report may have been a red herring, but is
also possible that it presages significant shuffles to come
at the top ranks of Burma's ruling generals. END COMMENT.
STOLTZ