AUNG SAN SUU KYI IN GOOD HEALTH, BUT NOT FREE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001269 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL BM SUBJECT: AUNG SAN SUU KYI IN GOOD HEALTH, BUT NOT FREE REF: A. RANGOON 1195 ¶B. RANGOON 1097 RANGOON 00001269 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: CDA Shari Villarosa for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) had another meeting with her doctor on August 24, two and half months after she last saw him. According to Dr. Tin Myo Win (aka Douglas), she remains in good health and keeps busy with meditation, listening to the radio, and walking around her compound. He told Charge that ASSK is "disappointed" with the NLD senior leaders for their lack of action, so Douglas plans to travel around lower Burma giving hope and encouragement to NLD members. They also exchanged views on recent political developments, the likelihood of another visit by UN Under Secretary General Gambari and the prospects that the regime SIPDIS will go forward with its own "roadmap" without releasing ASSK. End Summary ASSK Thinking about the Future -------------- ¶2. (C) After repeated requests to the regime, Douglas finally met his patient, Aung San Suu Kyi August 24. He provided Charge a readout of the meeting September 4. He also mentioned that he meets regularly with and provides readouts of his ASSK meetings to Chinese diplomats. Referring to her May meeting with Gambari, ASSK noted that while Gambari asked her to be nicer to Senior General Than Shwe, Than Shwe had failed to respond to ASSK's request that she be allowed to see her doctor more frequently. Douglas last saw ASSK June 10 when she suffered stomach problems. According to Douglas, Than Shwe must give his approval before he can meet with his patient. The Home Affairs Ministry and police, who are his immediate liaisons, only forward his requests up. His police contacts make it clear that the military decides. Douglas gets regular visits from both Special Branch and military intelligence officers, and has concluded that they do not talk to each other. ¶3. (C) Douglas found ASSK in good health and keeping busy with meditation, listening to the radio, and walks around her compound. He also added that he had been able to pass her a memory stick with information on developments "in the movement." He said ASSK approved of the Three Disease Fund moving forward, but has concerns that the military will try to take credit (see also ref A). A key test will be whether the Fund receives free access to deliver assistance. Douglas said ASSK is unhappy that the senior NLD leaders (the Uncles) do not appear to be doing much. As a result, Douglas plans to travel around the areas close to Rangoon to give hope and encouragement to NLD members, adding that he will have to get permission from the Uncles first. The doctor and patient use their meetings to also discuss various scenarios ranging from politics to health and death. Douglas claims to have ASSK's instructions for all eventualities. He said that ASSK is resigned to the fact that she might not be released until after the National Convention and a referendum on a new constitution take place and that the National League of Democracy could be dissolved. She plans to just start over again to build up political support from the ground up. Is the National Convention the Way Forward? -------------- ¶4. (C) Douglas keeps in close touch with younger activists and former political prisoners, like Ko Ko Gyi and Min Ko Naing, and admires their willingness to organize. He also had received positive reports about a recent discussion Charge hosted on women in politics. He said that that ASSK would be very pleased to learn of this, which Charge promised would continue. He expressed surprise that the New Light of RANGOON 00001269 002.2 OF 002 Myanmar would report on Ko Ko Gyi's recent travels to Chin State (since a Special Branch police officer had accompanied him),as well as the recent articles about a US Embassy FSN and the new British Ambassador. Charge offered her opinion that this was all designed to intimidate: Burmese from meeting foreigners and activists and foreigners from reaching out to the public. ¶5. (C) We also discussed the prospects for concluding the National Convention and holding a referendum in 2008 as the regime indicated to Gambari. Douglas seems convinced that this will happen because they need to do something for the economy. Charge responded that a sham constitution does nothing to address the longtime mismanagement of the economy. Douglas believes that people have told Than Shwe that the referendum would confer legitimacy and then investment and other assistance would start flowing again. He said that NLD has not rejected but sees no sense in participating in the National Convention since no debate is permitted. However, he worried that the military was trying to split the opposition, with some activists believing that they can negotiate for more by joining the National Convention. ¶6. (C) Charge also doubted whether the concerns of the ethnic minorities would be satisfactorily addressed. Douglas replied that, except for the Wa, most of the ethnic leaders are tired of fighting and have turned to money-making opportunities. Charge said while the senior ethnic leaders may be content to fill their pockets, inevitably discontent would grow among younger people when they discover they have no rights in their own land, cannot get jobs, and see their resources plundered for the benefit of the central government. Real stability requires granting some autonomy and control over resources to the ethnic minorities. The key issue for the regime is whether they are willing to share power or insist on keeping total control. Douglas said some in the military recognize the need to cede some power, but that Than Shwe's wife warns against giving in because no one would protect them. ¶7. (C) Comment: The Uncles are elderly, frail and quite comfortable with strong central control, given their history of senior positions under the previous military strong man, Ne Win. We doubt that ASSK really believes that they can be the public face of reform, but she may not realize the growing gap between the Uncles and the younger generation. While many older pro-democracy activists worry that the younger generation have lost hope, it appears to us that the younger generation have lost hope in the older generation. The younger generation very much want change and are coming to realize that they must step forward if it is to happen. Because she is in solitary confinement, ASSK cannot meet with the different generations to build unity. The military in the meantime continues to successfully use divide and rule tactics to keep the pro-democracy activists bickering rather than organizing. We are increasingly concentrating our efforts on bringing the younger generation together by focusing on what unites them. End Comment. VILLAROSA