BURMA: MANUVEURING FOR CHANGE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001050

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2026
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: MANUVEURING FOR CHANGE

REF: A. A) RANGOON 775


B. B) RANGOON 545 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: CDA Shari Villarosa for Reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (S) Summary: Aung San Suu Kyi's (ASSK) doctor met with
Charge July 20 to discuss recent developments. He has not
seen her since June 10 when she was ill, but expects to see
her again by early August. He indicated that plans to use
Martyr's Day, July 19, to launch public protests against the
regime had been thwarted by leaks, but predicted that popular
action would take place this year because of rising
discontent. He introduced young women that he has encouraged
to get involved in politics since police will be "nicer" to
them if arrested than men. He also appeared to support Vice
Senior General Maung Aye as a better alternative to Than Swe,
even though Maung Aye is very hardline against the ethnic
minorities. He noted that ASSK does not give him specific
instructions anymore as to what to say to whom, so his
thoughts that follow should be read as his own and not hers,
but offers insights into opposition thinking. End Summary


2. (S) Dr. Tin Myo Win, aka Douglas, has been ASSK's
personal doctor for more than a decade. He also counsels and
provides medical care to other political activists, including
former political prisoners like Min Ko Naing, whom he called
his "deputy" in 1988. Proudly showing his bio in a
government book of political opponents, Douglas said since he
is considered pro-Western, he is listed in the regime's green
book, as opposed to the red book listing Communists. He too
spent time in prison, and gets regularly questioned by
intelligence personnel. Introducing Charge to some young
women he has encouraged to get involved in politics, Douglas
told them that they would not be treated as harshly as men or
tortured by the authorities if arrested.


3. (S) Douglas last saw ASSK June 10 when he treated for her
stomach illness (ref A). His planned meetings with her this
month were cancelled at the last moment, but he expressed
confidence that he would see her again by the first week of
August. When asked how he learns when ASSK becomes ill,
Douglas said she gave orders not to call him unless she is
unconscious. To head off that extreme event, he has arranged
with one of her helpers to contact him. When they do meet,
they have long discussions about more than just health. ASSK
used to tell him specifically what to say to whom, but now
she gives more general instructions. He cited a recent
example where he pointed out the importance of timing to an
NLD spokesman referring to a recent statement by Secretary
Rice.


4. (S) Douglas spent most of the meeting discussing the
permutations of promoting a transition in the military
leadership. He implied that deals were underway involving
ASSK, Khin Nyunt and former dictator Ne Win's son, which were
discovered, and led to Khin Nyunt's downfall. Now change
would come from Vice Senior General Maung Aye, whom Douglas
described as "unambitious, but not corrupt." He recounted a
convoluted story implying that the removal of Than Shwe's
wife's nephew as Customs Director General was evidence that
Maung Aye has the upper hand. Douglas acknowledged that
Maung Aye is very hardline against the ethnic minorities, but
still viewed sees him as a better alternative than Senior
General Than Shwe.


5. (S) Meanwhile, popular discontent against the military is
growing, according to Douglas. He confirmed rumors of a
planned demonstration on Martyr's Day, July 19. A "people's
march" had been planned to the Martyr's Monument, he said,
but was cancelled when word got out ahead of time. So much
leaked that the government-controlled press indirectly
confirmed the rumors in advance, and announced that action
would be taken if there were any disturbances. Douglas

RANGOON 00001050 002.2 OF 002


concluded that timing again was important, pointing out that
the world's attention had turned to the Middle East and North
Korea, so any demonstration in Burma might not be noticed.
He predicted that popular action would still happen this
year, and cited Than Shwe's astrologer's prediction that 2006
would be his last year in Rangoon.


6. (S) Comment: While we have little option but to rely on
Douglas for word from Aung San Suu Kyi, he is known to have
his own personal agenda, which the above opinions likely
reflect. He regularly talks with someone close to Maung Aye,
and personally may view him as more palatable than Than Shwe.
However, taking a harder line against the ethnic minorities
making up 40 percent of the population is not a recipe for
future stability in Burma. This also shows why the ethnic
minorities do not trust any ethnic Burman apart from ASSK to
look out for their interests. We have heard other rumors
that some in the military would support a Maung Aye move
against Than Shwe, but most observers see Than Shwe more
firmly in control today and Maung Aye increasingly
marginalized. In any event, changes at the top will not
suffice. The change Burma needs requires the generals to
give way to the people, but like the aborted march, the
opposition can't seem to get its act together. Politics has
been primarily a male preserve, so perhaps getting more women
involved will help, although we doubt they will be treated
any nicer by the authorities.
VILLAROSA