MOROCCO MACROECONOMIC UPDATE AND ECONOMIC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 RABAT 001801 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/MAG, STATE PASS USTR (BELL),USPTO (ADLIN AND ADAMS),USDOC FOR ITA/MAC/ONE (ROTH),ADVOCACY CTR (JAMES) AND CLDP (TEJTEL) E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON ETRD ELAB EAIR EINT ECPS KTEX TS SUBJECT: MOROCCO MACROECONOMIC UPDATE AND ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS; SEPTEMBER 2006 ¶1. (U) This message provides an update on Morocco's macroeconomic situation, together with other highlights of recent economic developments, including: ¶A. Altadis's purchase of the remaining 20 percent of the National Tobacco Monopoly. ¶B. The creation of a new fund (Oleo Capital) to support the development of the olive industry. ¶C. Increased Moroccan textile exports to the U.S. ¶D. Morocco seeks Turkish tourists ¶E. Port reform sparks protests ¶2. (SBU) A Bumper Crop: Official forecasts for economic growth for the remainder of 2006 remain extremely positive. Building on a successful harvest, the Ministry of Finance now predicts that annual growth for the year will come in at least 7.3 percent, well above the baseline included in the 2006 budget, and a dramatic turnaround from last year's 1.7 percent. For its part, the IMF forecasts 5.4 percent growth. The strong showing results largely from the agricultural sector, which contributes 3 points to the total, versus its contraction by 2.7 points last year. Non-agricultural activities continue to grow at a more modest rate of 5 percent, the same rate as last year, aided by recovery in the textile sector and a strong showing by Morocco's metallurgical sector. ¶3. (U) The Casablanca Stock Exchange, as reflected in the Moroccan All Shares Index (MASI),has enjoyed a bullish year, up over 45 percent in 2006. Fueled by an influx of foreign investment and a series of asset sales by the government, the Casablanca Stock Exchange has outpaced all other markets worldwide. ¶4. (SBU) Dropping Unemployment: Morocco's strong growth is also reflected in a sharp drop in unemployment. The national unemployment rate dropped from 9.8 percent in the first quarter to 7.7 percent at mid-year, well below last year's rate of 11.1 percent, and the first time in 13 years that the number of unemployed dropped below 1 million. Strikingly, while the agricultural sector provided more than half the new jobs created by the economy (350,000 of 628,000 positions), the steepest decline was recorded in urban unemployment, which fell from 18.4 to 13 percent, and in that of unemployment among young graduates, which fell from 26.5 to 17.7 percent. Comment: While encouraging, the improvement has sparked considerable skepticism, with one leading industrialist questioning how Morocco can be within such close striking distance (2 percent) of "full employment." Skeptics predict that once the seasonal impact of the excellent harvest passes, unemployment will return to more typical levels. ¶5. (SBU) Sectoral Developments: ¶A. Altadis/Regie de Tabacs: The Franco-Spanish group Altadis moved earlier this month to purchase the remaining 20 percent of shares of the national tobacco monopoly (Regie de Tabacs) that remained in the state's hands after the company's June 2003 privatization. The purchase, for 4.02 billion dirhams, was followed by conclusion of two agreements: one guaranteeing the state a continued role on the company's board of directors, and the second by which the company will provide technical assistance to tobacco growers, to help them develop blond tobacco and also diversify into olive cultivation. The sale follows adoption in July of a decree prolonging the state's monopoly on the importation and distribution of tobacco products until the end of 2010, to help "reinforce the sector and enable it to overcome the continued decline in demand for tobacco products." Comment: The monopoly extension appears to violate provisions of the U.S.-Morocco Free Trade Agreement, and will be the subject of further bilateral discussions. ¶B. Oleo Capital: The Ministry of Agriculture, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale of France launched a new fund on September 18 in Marrakech to encourage the development of olive farming in Morocco. The fund, Oleo Capital, will RABAT 00001801 002 OF 002 invest approximately 180 million dirhams apiece in 10 olive farms. The project aims to produce an additional 30,000 tons of olive oil each year, meeting international standards in terms of cost and quality. With planting of the farms planned between 2007 and 2012, the first harvest is expected in 2010. Fund managers predict investors will earn a 25 percent return over 12 years. Comment: The olive sector is also a central element in Morocco's proposal to the Millennium Challenge Corporation, and MCC staffers will meet with Oleo Capital next month to compare notes on the project. Earlier, analysts at both McKinsey and BMCE Capital in Morocco had identified the sector as one that offered high potential for Morocco. Credit Agricole executives note that they plan four other funds in areas ranging from animal husbandry to "high-tech" agriculture, with a view to helping the agricultural sector as a whole modernize. ¶C. Textiles: With public relations and other assistance from USAID's New Business Opportunities Project (NBO),10 Moroccan firms participated in the 2006 "Magic Show" in Las Vegas in August, earning orders estimated at 90 million dirhams (10 million USD). Participants said the experience helped them better understand the U.S. market, and vowed to redouble their efforts in coming years. Separately, in a press conference following a meeting with visiting USDOC Deputy Assistant Secretary Holly Vinyard, Minister of Industry and Commerce Mezaour said Moroccan textile exports to the U.S. have doubled in the first six months of 2006, thanks to the U.S.-Morocco Free Trade Agreement. ¶D. Seeking Turkish Tourists: A delegation of 15 Moroccan travel operators met with their Turkish counterparts in Istanbul last week to encourage Turkish tourism to Morocco. Royal Air Maroc launched direct flights from Casablanca to Istanbul last year, with service 6 times weekly (including a corresponding Turkish Airlines codeshare). Passenger load has been relatively healthy at 65 percent, but the airline has targeted 85 percent for the coming year. Industry experts note that only 10,000 Turkish tourists came to Morocco in 2005, but argue that the total can be dramatically expanded if Morocco effectively promotes its cultural attractions. ¶E. Port Conflicts: Casablanca port union workers (stevedores) continue to resist the government's plan to privatize port operations. Dock workers staged an all-day strike on Wednesday, September 10, over fears of job security. At issue is the privatization of port operations (loading and unloading of ships) and the resulting loss in jobs for stevedores employed under the current system. Union leaders met with both the Minister of Transportation, Karim Ghellab, and the Prime Minister, Driss Jettou, for over four hours on September 20 without reaching a settlement. The union is firm in its opposition to the plan, which they say will mean the loss of over 700 jobs at Casablanca. In contrast, the government is offering a buy-out plan, emphasizes the efficiency and merits of their privatization plan, and claims the jobs will merely be transferred, rather than eliminated. ****************************************** Visit Embassy Rabat's Classified Website; http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/rabat ****************************************** BUSH