ELECTION: TSE TIES UP LOOSE ENDS, BIELSA TO RETURN

UNCLAS QUITO 002838 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS AND USAID/LAC E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM EC SUBJECT: ELECTION: TSE TIES UP LOOSE ENDS, BIELSA TO RETURN ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) on November 20 announced plans to use a combination of exit polling and civil society and media quick count reporting to tally unofficial presidential results. With a week to go before elections on November 26, the TSE also froze both candidates' bank accounts for exceeding campaign spending limits. The OAS has confirmed that its Election Observation Mission team would be back at work in Ecuador by November 21, and that Rafael Bielsa would again head the mission. With polls showing the election in a dead heat, redundant election reporting could generate confusion and competing claims during the days before the official tally becomes clear. End Summary. Battered TSE Plays it Safe -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Opting to avoid another scandal, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has chosen to rely on outsiders to report preliminary election results. TSE president Xavier Cazar on November 19 announced that a combination of exit polling and media and unofficial quick count reporting would be permitted to report early unofficial results on November ¶26. Polling firms "Informe Confidencial", CEDATOS, and Market have been tapped to provide exit poll results immediately after the close of the polls at 1700 local, provided the results are not close. NGO Citizen Participation and television outlets "Teleamazonas" and "Red-Telesistema" (RTS) will transmit their quick count results several hours later, based on representative sampling of official vote tallies. The OAS will also conduct a quick count, but it is unclear whether the OAS would make those results public. OAS EOM Confirmed, Bielsa to Lead -------------- ¶3. (SBU) OAS Ambassador to Ecuador Hugo Saguier on November 20 confirmed OAS EOM participation in the November 26 elections to PolOff. Saguier said that EOM Deputy Director Moises Benamor would arrive with a team from Peru on November 21; the entire OAS EOM team would be in country by November ¶24. Saguier confirmed Rafael Bielsa's return as EOM director, but did not provide an arrival date. Saguier said that the OAS would again provide the TSE its quick count results, but said the OAS would again request the TSE not release them. ¶4. (SBU) The Embassy will contribute 19 volunteers to the November 26 OAS EOM, down from 27 in the first round. The EOM will have a total of 180 election monitors on the ground on November 26. Citizen Participation will field a force of 3,000 national election monitors. Candidates Exceed Caps, TSE Freezes Accounts -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The TSE on November 17 announced that it would freeze the bank accounts of presidential candidates Alvaro Noboa and Rafael Correa for exceeding campaign spending limits. According to November 20 TSE figures, Noboa exceeded the 687,068 cap on second round spending by 521,083 and Correa by 75,165. Both candidates have reportedly appealed the ruling. The TSE will have 90 days following the November 26 election to review campaign spending and apply fines accordingly. Candidates that surpassed limits but did not exceed 30% will be required to pay double the amount overspent; those exceeded the cap by over 30% are required to pay four times that amount. The TSE moratorium on campaign spending is not retroactive, so pre-existing publicity bought by the candidates will continue running at least through the next few days. Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) After being severely burned by the E-vote scandal during the first round, the TSE has shied away from risking an official substitute. The combination of exit polling and redundant quick count reporting would be effective, if the results were not likely to be close. With polls showing the race to be a dead heat, however, the TSE risks competing results based on multiple and redundant reporting sources. Exit polls were very good predictors of final results in the first round, but the TSE has asked the pollsters not to release results if the margin of difference is less than 3% on election night, which could fuel claims of fraud from Correa's camp. Official presidential results took over a week to be finalized during the first round, and we expect a similar long wait next week. In the interim, we put greatest stock in the Citizen Participation quick count. Their results matched final official results nearly exactly in the first round, but will take several hours to tally on election night. The OAS quick count will be less credible, in our view, given the short amount of time remaining to prepare its observation. JEWELL