FM CARRION'S POLICY BLUEPRINT: VANITY PROJECT OR

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 002699 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL EC SUBJECT: FM CARRION'S POLICY BLUEPRINT: VANITY PROJECT OR GLIMPSE OF THE FUTURE? Classified By: PolOff Erik Martini for reasons 1.4 (b&d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Ecuadorian Foreign Minister Francisco Carrion on October 23 released the country's foreign policy whitepaper, the National Foreign Policy Plan 2006-2020 ("PLANEX"). An avowed attempt to focus the nation's foreign policy amidst constant domestic political turmoil, the PLANEX exercise usefully highlights the importance of relations with the U.S., Colombia, Spain/Europe, with a focus on sovereignty, security, human rights, and immigration issues. Though portrayed as the product of democratic consensus to help guide the next government, we see the effort more as a sop to nationalist/leftist critics of the U.S., intended to endear Carrion to certain Quito elites by permanently setting back USG interests in Ecuador, most notably including possible extension of the Manta basing agreement. Despite foul intentions, we do not believe the effort will seriously hamper the next government from reasonably considering its options, if it wishes. End Summary. Background -------------- ¶2. (U) Ecuador's PLANEX purports to establish basic principles in foreign affairs for the next 15 years. Developed through a nine month public and private consultative process headed by Ambassador Javier Ponce Leiva, the stated goal was to forge a "coherent and lasting" state policy that would withstand the vagaries of "party politics." Ecuador's Foreign Minister, Francisco Carrion, has generally been praised for the initiative, since it was publicly revealed in a ceremony attended by President Palacio on October 24. At the event, Leiva said the Palacio Government would also present to the next government an abridged action plan, including short to medium term objectives, based on the principles in PLANEX. ¶3. (SBU) The 77-page, glossy, hard-bound PLANEX consists of six sections: International Scene; Principles of Foreign Policy; Objectives of Foreign Policy; Strategic Contours; Institutional Development; and, Communication Policy. The section entitled "International Scene" is a five page review of Ecuador's position in the world. "Principles of Foreign Policy" sets out the constitutional basis for Ecuador's foreign policy, and claims that Ecuador's foreign policy is based on principles of international law. "Objectives of Foreign Policy" is a ten-point wish list. ¶4. (SBU) The heart of the document is in the "Strategic Contours" section, which outlines each objective and issue and presents from seven to 18 steps to achieve it. "Institutional Development" outlines in three pages how the Ecuadorian Foreign Service will change to meet its goals in the next 15 years. "Communication Policy" outlines public diplomacy goals in two pages. Warm Words for S. America, Europe, Not U.S. -------------- ¶5. (C) In general, the PLANEX document strains to align the GOE with its neighbors in the southern hemisphere, and with Europe and international organizations, rather than with the United States. Cooperation is necessary with neighboring Latin American countries, because of the common "will" of their peoples; the European Union, because of the shared vision regarding international problems, democracy and human rights; Spain, because of historic and cultural ties; and China and Japan, because of the opportunities for trade within the Pacific Basin offers. The PLANEX speaks of "profound historic links" to Columbia and even refers to its "sister" peoples in Peru. It singles out Brazil as a country meriting special attention. Verbiage about Europe is similarly warm--the PLANEX gushes that Ecuador shares "values and historic traditions with the member states of the European Union," and credits Europe with shared commitment to multilateralism. ¶6. (U) Reasons cited for cooperation with the U.S. are less positive--"hemispheric gravitation" and "the need for the U.S. to contribute to sustainable development and the consolidation of the democratic system." The U.S. is credited only with being "the hegemonic power in the military and technological sphere." Yes to Multilateralism -------------- ¶7. (U) One of Ecuador's ten objectives is to "secure and respect the force of international law." The PLANEX document laments that there has been no advance in multilateral cooperation since the end of the cold war. "Some of the great powers have moved away from the most important developments of international law" such as the Kyoto Protocol, Convention on Biological Diversity and the International Criminal Court. The document criticizes the UNSC perm-5 veto power "anti-democratic" and calls for its elimination or restriction. Ecuador will continue work to consolidate principles of "international justice", especially through the International Criminal Court, it asserts. Ecuador will also continue to be active in the Non-Aligned Movement, "Group of 77" and "Group of 20." The GOE recently voted in favor of the OAS resolution criticizing the USG for plans to build a wall on the border with Mexico. No to Manta FOL -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The PLANEX document explicitly prohibits the presence of foreign troops in Ecuador, but claims that prohibition should not prevent Ecuador from complying with military cooperation agreements that are in the national interest, joint military operations or exercises agreed to in multilateral organizations. FM Carrion has publicly gone much further, repeatedly declaring he would not have favored the Manta FOL Agreement, denigrating the value to Ecuador of the agreement, and saying he is opposed to renewing it in ¶2009. No to Plan Colombia -------------- ¶9. (C) As expected, the PLANEX document gives considerable attention to Colombia's internal conflict and its impact on Ecuador. The Ministry notes that the GOE should "respect and demand respect" for the principle of non-intervention in the affairs of other states. The PLANEX criticizes the militarization of its borders with Colombia and adamantly opposes Colombian aerial fumigation of coca crops within 10 km of the border. The document also asserts that the GOE should maintain effective control and development of the border area to prevent incursions from abroad. More broadly, the PLANEX states that the GOE should develop a "regime of security cooperation extending throughout South America with the purpose of countering external pressures foreign to national and regional interests." Arbiter of Military, Police and Intelligence Cooperation -------------- -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Not surprisingly, the PLANEX document seeks to extend MFA primacy in foreign policy making. The PLANEX document asserts that any international cooperation, including military, should be coordinated by the MFA. The MFA should also verify and supervise compliance with any treaties relating to defense, security, and the circulation in Ecuador of police, intelligence or other public personnel of any other state, according to the document. "Maybe" on FTA and Foreign Investment, Vague on Debt -------------- -------------- ¶11. (SBU) In the economic realm, the PLANEX document identifies 17 not-particularly-coherent objectives. Even the most practical objectives (strengthening economic ties with major trade partners) quickly takes on a defensive tone by stressing the need to eliminate subsidies and anti-dumping rules). The document is ambivalent on investment, declaring that "foreign investment may complement, but not substitute, internal (economic) forces," and focusing on technology transfer while not mentioning job creation. Ecuador will try to diversify its foreign direct investment, giving preferential attention to Pacific Rim countries such as China, Japan and India. External debt is considered a "brake on development" and the PLANEX argues that it can violate the human right of a people's free determination. ¶12. (SBU) On trade, the document does not specifically address the issue of an FTA with the United States. But its antipathy toward such an agreement is clear, if only stated in general terms. There is little discussion on the opportunities that could be created by FTA, but instead the document stress that any trade agreement must avoid "discretionary and unilateral use of tariff and non-tariff barriers such as phyto-sanitary measures and anti-dumping, and any other political condition foreign to the commercial sphere--including anti-drug certification, migration control, and immunity before international bodies, among others." Migration Important Human Rights Issue -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Migration issues figure prominently in the PLANEX, which affirms a basic principle of "free circulation of persons" and the "free circulation of labor . . . complementing the free circulation of goods and capital." (Note: Carrion made defense of Ecuadorian migrants a priority when he was Ambassador to Spain and continues the emphasis of migration issues as Foreign Minister.) In the section on relations with the U.S., the PLANEX vows to fight to improve migrants' standard of living and to document illegal migrants in the United States. The PLANEX declares GOE rejection of efforts to "criminalize immigration or to consider migratory flows a threat to security." Ecuador will use international institutions and tribunals to defend its views on migration worldwide. TIP Highlighted, No Thanks to U.S. -------------- ¶14. (U) The PLANEX lists the fight against trafficking in persons (TIP) as a priority, without giving much detail. It promises to prosecute international crimes such as TIP, and to seek better international cooperation and support. Ongoing USG support for this effort is not mentioned. Comment -------------- ¶15. (C) Carrion's initiative to codify a foreign policy consensus appears laudable until one considers its subtext, which is generally aimed against us. This should not come as a surprise--Ecuador's professional diplomatic corps has a longstanding pro-Latin and European bias, which is reflected in the PLANEX document. It is a nearly perfect expression of Quito-based, leftist intellectual establishment views. Carrion, an accomplished and professional diplomat who leads the MFA under a weak, caretaker government, has made his mark by vigorously defending Ecuador against perceived threats or slights from abroad. The USG and Government of Colombia have borne the brunt of Carrion's calculatedly public prickliness. At the same time and to his credit, Carrion has also been somewhat effective improving communication with the GOC and attempting to broaden institutional relationships with Colombia, in marked contrast with his predecessor. ¶16. (C) We also suspect political motives for the anti-American bias in the document. Carrion is close to leaders of the Democratic Left party and Ponce Leiva is rumored to aspire to the FM seat in a Correa government. Despite Carrion's strenuous efforts to portray the document as the product of democratic consensus, we have our doubts. The "consensus" process involved mostly participants selected to say what the MFA wanted to hear. ¶17. (SBU) Ultimately, we do not believe the next government will be constrained by this non-binding document. While a Correa government would find much here to like, it would likely be just a starting point for realigning Ecuador even further to the left; it would likely be significantly ignored by a Noboa government, more comfortable with USG views and eager to separate itself from Venezuela and Cuba -- but it portends the friction he could face from MFA professionals and other Quito intellectual elites. JEWELL