ELECTION UPDATE: CANDIDATES ACTIVE BUT VOTERS NOT

UNCLAS QUITO 002638

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EC
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: CANDIDATES ACTIVE BUT VOTERS NOT
FIRED UP

REF: QUITO 2617


1. (SBU) Summary: The second round of campaigning is well
underway, with leftist candidate Rafael Correa seeking to
re-position himself, using symbolic meetings with authority
figures to attract centrist voters. For his part,
center-right candidate Alvaro Noboa is sticking with the
formula that led to his surprising come-from-behind victory
in the first round--doling out charitable donations and
populist promises of better days for the poor under a Noboa
government. Noboa appears confident of his lead in the
polls, while Correa is complaining of financial difficulties
and predicting further (unsubstantiated) fraud. The E-vote
scandal continues to play out, resulting in the provisional
arrest of a former OAS election official. Comments by OAS
SecGen Insulza from Washington are being interpreted as
indicating Rafael Bielsa will return to lead the OAS
observation mission for the second round of voting on
November 26. End Summary.

New Polls Expected Soon
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2. (SBU) Fresh poll results are expected to become public
here soon, but were not yet available at the time of this
report. The head of Cedatos, one of the more credible of
polling organizations, told us preliminary results of a poll
conducted October 28-29, did not vary greatly from the week
before (which had Noboa leading Correa by a 16-point margin).

E-Vote Scandal Fallout Continues
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3. (SBU) Santiago Murray, the former OAS election official
who acted as spokesman for the Brazilian firm E-Vote, was
taken into custody by authorities on October 31, according to
press reports. E-Vote was contracted by the Supreme
Electoral Tribunal (TSE) to conduct a preliminary quick
count, but its software crashed late on election night after
tabulating only 70% of the presidential vote. Murray was
arrested on a warrant issued by the 14th criminal court of
Pichincha at the request of the Public Ministry (Attorney
General's Office). He was later transferred to hospital
after respiratory failure.


4. (SBU) The E-Vote failure also led to calls for
investigation of the TSE for irregularities in the handling
of the contract (which was awarded late, without endorsement
from the Solicitor and Comptroller General's office). The
Supreme Court declined to rescind TSE member immunity, so the
investigation has been blocked. For its part, the Social
Christian Party (PSC) on October 30 called TSE president
Xavier Cazar (and PSC member) before its disciplinary
committee, to explain his actions in the case. No decisions
were announced.

Correa Campaign: Ambassador, Nebot, Church
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5. (SBU) After meeting with the Ambassador on October 26
(RefTel),presidential finalist Rafael Correa met with
influential Guayaquil mayor Jaime Nebot on October 27.
Correa publicized both meetings, apparently seeking to
moderate his radical anti-establishment image. After meeting
with Nebot, Correa pledged his government's support for
Nebot's autonomy proposal, pending before Congress. During a
separate meeting with mayors from Guayas' Santa Elena
peninsula, Correa promised his government's support for their
demands for separation from Guayas province.


6. (U) On October 31, Correa held another high-profile
meeting, this time with the Catholic Church's Episcopal
Conference, reportedly to describe his plan of government and
his own Catholic faith. After the private meeting, Correa
told the press that he assured the Church leaders he would
not "use" his religious faith for political purposes, or
attempt to buy votes with "alms" unlike his rival.


7. (SBU) Correa used the media exposure on his Church
meeting to accuse Noboa of cowardice for ducking a final
presidential debate, and acknowledged a $160,000 campaign
deficit entering the second round. Electoral authorities

revealed that Correa spent $40,763 between October 27-29;
Noboa spent $54,177 during the same period. The official
spending limit for the second round campaign is $687,000,
which amounts to one quarter of the overall campaign spending
limit. An anti-Noboa email circulating here on October 17
accused Noboa of having spent $6,275 million so far
(including pre-campaign spending to boost his image),and
highlighted the 2002 Human Rights Watch report "Harvest of
Shame" criticizing Noboa's labor practices on banana
plantations which supply his firm.

Noboa Campaign Promises
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8. (U) For his part, Alvaro Noboa told the press that with
all due respect to Ambassadors, mayors and the Church, he
would eschew all such meetings and concentrate his campaign
efforts only on reaching out to the people. Visiting cities
in Los Rios province, he proposed to raise the Human
Development handout to the poor from its current $15/month to
$35. He also pledged to provide credit at low interest
rates, generate employment and trade, and to provide greater
resources to provinces and municipalities. He thanked voters
for their generosity and pledged to continue to respond in
the same spirit. He claimed a Noboa government would deal
harshly with anyone not willing to pay the official wholesale
price for bananas (note: Correa had made the same pledge
earlier and claims Noboa is not paying his contractors the
full price).

OAS EOM Stays the Course; Correa Renews Attacks
-------------- --


9. (SBU) Press here reported on October 31 that OAS SecGen
Insulza had strongly affirmed OAS confidence in the OAS
Election Observation Mission headed by former Argentine FM
Rafael Bielsa. "We are perfectly happy with our mission's
work in Ecuador," Insulza reportedly told local media outlet
"Ecuavisa." Asked for comment, Correa reportedly renewed his
call for Bielsa's removal for "unpardonable acts of omission
and commission" during the first round of voting. On October
31, Correa again called for the removal of the TSE board and
the Defense Minister, for alleged fraud.

Comment
--------------


10. (SBU) Although the candidates have been as active as
ever, most Ecuadorians appear to be taking a breather from
the campaign. We expect public interest to grow, especially
if Correa is able to narrow the gap in the polls. Noboa's
apparent hope of coasting to victory by avoiding debate and
trumpeting his lead may not be a smart strategy. If voter
disaffection continues or grows, it could become an important
factor in this election. Given a choice between these two
candidates at opposite sides of the political spectrum, we
expect many voters to reject both, by nullifying their
ballots. That form of abstention could easily exceed 30%;
with both candidates enjoying a reliable hard-core vote of
about 25%, the relatively narrow range of swing voters that
will ultimately decide this election will make this election
less predictable than the polls might indicate.
BROWN