ELECTION UPDATE: CANDIDATES ACTIVE BUT VOTERS NOT

UNCLAS QUITO 002638 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS AND USAID/LAC E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM EC SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: CANDIDATES ACTIVE BUT VOTERS NOT FIRED UP REF: QUITO 2617 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The second round of campaigning is well underway, with leftist candidate Rafael Correa seeking to re-position himself, using symbolic meetings with authority figures to attract centrist voters. For his part, center-right candidate Alvaro Noboa is sticking with the formula that led to his surprising come-from-behind victory in the first round--doling out charitable donations and populist promises of better days for the poor under a Noboa government. Noboa appears confident of his lead in the polls, while Correa is complaining of financial difficulties and predicting further (unsubstantiated) fraud. The E-vote scandal continues to play out, resulting in the provisional arrest of a former OAS election official. Comments by OAS SecGen Insulza from Washington are being interpreted as indicating Rafael Bielsa will return to lead the OAS observation mission for the second round of voting on November 26. End Summary. New Polls Expected Soon -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Fresh poll results are expected to become public here soon, but were not yet available at the time of this report. The head of Cedatos, one of the more credible of polling organizations, told us preliminary results of a poll conducted October 28-29, did not vary greatly from the week before (which had Noboa leading Correa by a 16-point margin). E-Vote Scandal Fallout Continues -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Santiago Murray, the former OAS election official who acted as spokesman for the Brazilian firm E-Vote, was taken into custody by authorities on October 31, according to press reports. E-Vote was contracted by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) to conduct a preliminary quick count, but its software crashed late on election night after tabulating only 70% of the presidential vote. Murray was arrested on a warrant issued by the 14th criminal court of Pichincha at the request of the Public Ministry (Attorney General's Office). He was later transferred to hospital after respiratory failure. ¶4. (SBU) The E-Vote failure also led to calls for investigation of the TSE for irregularities in the handling of the contract (which was awarded late, without endorsement from the Solicitor and Comptroller General's office). The Supreme Court declined to rescind TSE member immunity, so the investigation has been blocked. For its part, the Social Christian Party (PSC) on October 30 called TSE president Xavier Cazar (and PSC member) before its disciplinary committee, to explain his actions in the case. No decisions were announced. Correa Campaign: Ambassador, Nebot, Church -------------- ¶5. (SBU) After meeting with the Ambassador on October 26 (RefTel),presidential finalist Rafael Correa met with influential Guayaquil mayor Jaime Nebot on October 27. Correa publicized both meetings, apparently seeking to moderate his radical anti-establishment image. After meeting with Nebot, Correa pledged his government's support for Nebot's autonomy proposal, pending before Congress. During a separate meeting with mayors from Guayas' Santa Elena peninsula, Correa promised his government's support for their demands for separation from Guayas province. ¶6. (U) On October 31, Correa held another high-profile meeting, this time with the Catholic Church's Episcopal Conference, reportedly to describe his plan of government and his own Catholic faith. After the private meeting, Correa told the press that he assured the Church leaders he would not "use" his religious faith for political purposes, or attempt to buy votes with "alms" unlike his rival. ¶7. (SBU) Correa used the media exposure on his Church meeting to accuse Noboa of cowardice for ducking a final presidential debate, and acknowledged a $160,000 campaign deficit entering the second round. Electoral authorities revealed that Correa spent $40,763 between October 27-29; Noboa spent $54,177 during the same period. The official spending limit for the second round campaign is $687,000, which amounts to one quarter of the overall campaign spending limit. An anti-Noboa email circulating here on October 17 accused Noboa of having spent $6,275 million so far (including pre-campaign spending to boost his image),and highlighted the 2002 Human Rights Watch report "Harvest of Shame" criticizing Noboa's labor practices on banana plantations which supply his firm. Noboa Campaign Promises -------------- ¶8. (U) For his part, Alvaro Noboa told the press that with all due respect to Ambassadors, mayors and the Church, he would eschew all such meetings and concentrate his campaign efforts only on reaching out to the people. Visiting cities in Los Rios province, he proposed to raise the Human Development handout to the poor from its current $15/month to $35. He also pledged to provide credit at low interest rates, generate employment and trade, and to provide greater resources to provinces and municipalities. He thanked voters for their generosity and pledged to continue to respond in the same spirit. He claimed a Noboa government would deal harshly with anyone not willing to pay the official wholesale price for bananas (note: Correa had made the same pledge earlier and claims Noboa is not paying his contractors the full price). OAS EOM Stays the Course; Correa Renews Attacks -------------- -- ¶9. (SBU) Press here reported on October 31 that OAS SecGen Insulza had strongly affirmed OAS confidence in the OAS Election Observation Mission headed by former Argentine FM Rafael Bielsa. "We are perfectly happy with our mission's work in Ecuador," Insulza reportedly told local media outlet "Ecuavisa." Asked for comment, Correa reportedly renewed his call for Bielsa's removal for "unpardonable acts of omission and commission" during the first round of voting. On October 31, Correa again called for the removal of the TSE board and the Defense Minister, for alleged fraud. Comment -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Although the candidates have been as active as ever, most Ecuadorians appear to be taking a breather from the campaign. We expect public interest to grow, especially if Correa is able to narrow the gap in the polls. Noboa's apparent hope of coasting to victory by avoiding debate and trumpeting his lead may not be a smart strategy. If voter disaffection continues or grows, it could become an important factor in this election. Given a choice between these two candidates at opposite sides of the political spectrum, we expect many voters to reject both, by nullifying their ballots. That form of abstention could easily exceed 30%; with both candidates enjoying a reliable hard-core vote of about 25%, the relatively narrow range of swing voters that will ultimately decide this election will make this election less predictable than the polls might indicate. BROWN