ELECTION UPDATE: THE "NEW" FACE OF THE CONGRESS;

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 002602

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS AND USAID/LAC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2016
TAGS: KDEM PGOV EC
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: THE "NEW" FACE OF THE CONGRESS;
OAS EOM FALLOUT CONTINUES; NGO SEEKS TRANSPARENCY AND POLL
DATA


Classified By: PolOff Arnaldo Arbesu for reasons 1.4 (B&D)


1. (SBU) Summary: More than a week after the first round of
presidential elections on October 15, election authorities
have officially confirmed Alvaro Noboa's first round win with
26.83%, over Rafael Correa's 22.84%. Recent but unpublished
poll data reveals that Noboa leads Correa by a 16-point
margin. We believe Correa will narrow the margin
considerably before election day on November 26.
Preliminary congressional election results confirm the
electorate's punishment of traditional political parties,
ushering in new Congress led by Noboa's Institutional Renewal
Party (PRIAN) and Lucio Gutierrez' Patriotic Society Party
(PSP). Combined these two parties are expected to win nearly
half of the seats in the new Congress. Meanwhile, the OAS is
reviewing the situation facing its electoral observation
mission headed by Rafael Bielsa in the face of politicized
criticism. Election authorities have decided to forgo a
preliminary count in the second round, which will delay
official results. End Summary.

It's Official
--------------


2. (U) Official TSE results for the first round of
presidential voting were confirmed late on October 24, as
follows.

Noboa (PRIAN): 26.83%
Correa (PAIS movement): 22.84%
Gilmar Gutierrez (PSP): 17.42%
Leon Roldos Aguilera (RED-ID): 14.84%
Cynthia Viteri (PSP): 9.63%
Luis Macas (Pachakutik): 2.19%
Fernando Rosero (PRE): 2.08%
Marco Proano Maya (MRD: 1.42%
Luis Villacis (MPD): 1.33%
Jaime Damerval (CFP): 0.46%
Marcelo Larrea Cabrera (ATR): 0.43%
Lenin Torres (MRPP): 0.28%
Carlos Sagnay de la Bastida (INA): 0.25%

Total registered voters: 9,165,125
Total votes: 6,610,504 (72% participation, vs 65% in 2002)
Blank votes: 316,220
Invalid votes: 775,613 (12% of votes cast, vs. 11% in 2002)

Congressional Results Trickling in
--------------


3. (U) The smaller provinces are counting faster than the
larger provinces because the provincial election councils
have fewer votes to count. Provincial election councils have
finished counting votes in 15 of 22 provinces. The remaining
provinces have all counted more than 50% of the votes. Once
counted, the votes must be processed by a mathematical
formula to determine the proportion of congressional deputies
for each party. Of the 15 provinces that have already
counted all the votes, 14 have submitted the tallies to the
mathematical formula: those provinces have determined the
final results for 38 of 100 congressional seats.

Voters Disdain Congress, Established Parties
--------------


4. (SBU) Preliminary results indicate that voters
invalidated their votes, in part as a protest against the
institution of Congress, anywhere from 8.6% in Galapagos
province to 33.1% in Pichincha province. In some provinces,
null votes outnumbered the front-runner. If current trends
in the preliminary results hold, there will be a major shift
in balance of power in the new 100-member unicameral
legislature, as follows:

Big Losers: Social Christian Party (PSC): from 26 to 14 seats
Democratic Left Party (ID): from 16 to 15 seats (shared with
Roldos' RED)
Ecuadorian Roldosista Party (PRE): from 15 to 5 seats
Pachakutik: from 10 to 6 seats

Big Winners: PRIAN: from 10 to 27 members, and the
presidency of Congress for 2007-2008.


Patriotic Society Party (PSP): from 5 to 21 members, and the
1st vice presidency of Congress for 2007-2008.
(Note: under the constitution, the PSP would assume the
presidency of congress, and the PRIAN would take the 1st vice
presidency during the period 2009-2010.)


5. (SBU) Thus, voters have dealt a blow to older established
parties like the PSC (around since the 1950s),ID (founded in
1968) and PRE (founded in 1983 and unable to hold ground with
its leader Abdala Bucaram in exile in Panama) in favor of
newer parties like the PRIAN (founded in 1998) and PSP
(founded in 2001).

PRIAN/PSP Alliance?
--------------


6. (SBU) A PRIAN/PSP coalition coupled with the PRE's
projected 5 members, or the centrist and serious-minded UDC's
projected 5 members, would give a Noboa presidency a majority
in Congress. On some issues, the PSC bloc could also become a
likely ally for the Noboa agenda. PRIAN and PSP are flirting
again with an alliance, as they did before the first round.
PSP leader Lucio Gutierrez has conditioned PSP support on
bringing to justice those who illegally overthrew his
government. Noboa has publicly committed to do so, with the
exception of President Palacio. Noboa also charged that
Correa, as a self-proclaimed member of the "forajido"
movement which called for Gutierrez' ouster, should be
considered one of the "golpistas."


7. (C) PSP leader and newly-elected Andean Parliamentarian
Ivonne Baki told the DCM on October 26 that PSP/PRIAN talks
had not begun, and she had recommended that Lucio Gutierrez
wait for an overture from Noboa. Rather than an overt
alliance, Gutierrez was more likely to let his supporters
decide who to support in the second round, and any working
agreement with the PRIAN was likely to be tacit. Should a
PRIAN/PSP governing coalition not emerge, it would take at
least four party blocs in the new Congress to form a majority.

OAS EOM Update
--------------


8. (C) OAS Rep Hugo Saguier (please protect) told PolChief
on October 20 that OAS EOM Chief Rafael Bielsa had left
Ecuador for consultations next week in Washington with the
OAS Sec-Gen over mission strategy. Saguier said
Bielsa wants to continue as EOM chief but speculated that the
OAS might possibly decide to replace Bielsa, in light of
damage to the mission's credibility caused by attacks from
the Correa camp, however unjustified. Saguier believed the
attacks on Bielsa were tactical, motivated by Correa's fall
in the polls. They centered first on Bielsa's alleged
personal bias, and later on the scandal over the failed quick
count by E-vote, the company contracted by the GOE to conduct
the preliminary quick count whose spokesman,
Santiago Murray, had previous ties to the OAS.

Polls Show Noboa Ahead
--------------


9. (SBU) In a nationwide poll conducted by the polling
company, Informe Confidencial, on October 21-22, Alvaro Noboa
leads with 58% support among decided voters (who included 68%
of those polled) in the second round election on November 26.
But the numbers also showed that Noboa had significantly
higher "unfavorable" ratings than Correa, even in the coast,
Noboa's vote stronghold. The pollsters had expected Noboa to
gain a larger bounce coming out of the first round victory,
and that his lead was soft and very vulnerable. They
believed that "the election is Noboa's to lose," and worried
about over-confidence. He needs to stick to his original
campaign message of helping the poor, creating jobs, building
affordable housing and attracting foreign investment.
Noboa's public commitment to prosecute those who participated
in the overthrow of the Gutierrez government was a tactical
error, they believe, which could cost Noboa support,
especially in Quito. They warned that Noboa has no visible
political allies from the highlands region, which could
compound problems of governance, should he be elected.

Campaign Financing Watchdog Calls for Equity


--------------


10. (U) Electoral watchdog NGO "Citizen Participation"
formally requested national election authorities to fully
comply with the law and make public the campaign spending
results for the first round election. The group also
requested that campaign finance data be made available on a
timely basis during the campaign period for the second round
of elections. Should any candidate exceed the approved
spending limits, as Noboa reportedly did in the first round,
the group urged the TSE to apply sanctions as prescribed by
law to ensure campaign spending equity between the two
finalists.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) We think it is very important that the USG not be
seen as a protagonist in the decision whether to stick with
or replace Bielsa. The composition of the OAS observation
mission is strictly an issue between the OAS and the GOE.
There are issues on either side of this decision, but
accusations against him have been overstated and will
probably dog the mission in the second round regardless of
who is in charge.


12. (C) A PRIAN/PSP governing coalition, should it emerge,
could boost prospects for stability if Noboa wins in
November. It would also set the stage for more stable
Congress-Executive relations. But Noboa's naturally
autocratic style raises questions about his inclination and
capacity to reach out to multiple blocs -- already a
challenge to achieve and sustain in Ecuador under the best of
conditions. The costs of such an alliance were unnecessarily
assumed by Noboa when he pledged to prosecute Gutierrez'
ousters. Correa's governability challenges would be even
greater. His lack of allies in Congress and proposed
constituent assembly ensure a confrontation with Congress
over political reform, from the outset. To win, Noboa
clearly needs to get back "on-message" and stop fueling fears
of a political witch-hunt. The Ambassador will meet
separately with Noboa and Correa in coming weeks to lay the
basis for productive engagement with whoever wins. She will
also meet separately with the Gutierrez brothers to keep a
channel open to that newly revitalized political force.
JEWELL