ELECTIONS: FIRST ROUND RESULTS CONFIRMED,

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 002584

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS AND USAID/LAC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2016
TAGS: KDEM PGOV EC
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: FIRST ROUND RESULTS CONFIRMED,
PRIAN/PSP MAY LEAD CONGRESS


Classified By: PolOff Erik Martini for reasons 1.4 (B&D)


1. (C) Summary: The official GOE vote count confirms an
Alvaro Noboa vs. Rafael Correa second round match-up.
Noboa's political party also looks set to become the largest
bloc in the new Congress that takes office January 5, 2007.
The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) is struggling to decide
how/whether to conduct a second round quick count; the OAS
observation mission remains vigilant, observing the vote
count process. Noboa appears confident of a second round
victory, sticking to the campaign strategy he crafted for the
first round. Correa, on the other hand, has dramatically
altered his strategy and changed his rhetoric. Party
alliances shaping up seem to favor Noboa, and the leadership
of the Democratic Left Party is facing internal dissent over
its early endorsement of Correa. End Summary.

First Round Winners Confirmed with TSE Count
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2. (U) The quick count system managed by Brazilian
contractor E-Vote crashed in the early morning hours of
October 16 with only around 72% of votes counted. The
Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has continued with its
slower official count. With 97.92% of votes counted, the
results are similar to those obtained by E-Vote, firmly
placing Noboa and Correa into the second round. An official
announcement of final results is expected later on October

20. Current standings:

Alvaro Noboa - 26.83
Rafael Correa - 22.86
Gilmar Gutierrez - 17.61
Leon Roldos - 14.75
Cynthia Viteri - 9.58
Luis Macas - 2.17
Fernando Rosero - 2.04
Marco Proano Mayo - 1.42
Luis Villacis - 1.33
Jaime Damerval 0.46
Marcelo Larrea - 0.42
Lenin Torres - 0.28
Carlos Sagnay - 0.24

Preliminary Congressional Results Favor PRIAN
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3. (U) The TSE will take longer to count official
congressional results. However, partial results indicate a
major change in the balance of power in Congress in favor of
Noboa's PRIAN party. Social Christian Party (PSC) officials
have already admitted they will likely lose their status as
the dominant congressional bloc and may only be the third
largest force, behind PRIAN and the Patriotic Society Party
(PSP). Alvaro Noboa's wife, Anabella Azin, is leading the
vote count in the PSC heartland of Guayas province, but only
21.54% of votes have been counted so far in that province.
(Note: Once counted, the votes must be processed by a
mathematical formula to determine the proportion of
congressional deputies for each party. End Note.) Null and
blank votes, some protesting Congress' past legitimacy, range
from 20 to 50% in the partial results being reported from
various provinces.

TSE Considers Quick Count Options

SIPDIS
--------------


4. (U) TSE officials met late in the evening on October 19
to evaluate options for the now failed quick count in the
second round. TSE President Xavier Cazar reportedly supports
using television, radio, and other media outlets to conduct a
quick count on November 26. The proposal calls for volunteer
university students to collect the ballot tallies and deliver
them to the coordinator who would then transmit results via
telephone to the 22 provincial computation centers. Cazar's
proposal was immediately rejected by television stations
Ecuavisa and Teleamazones, who said the quick count was the
TSE's responsibility, not the media's. TSE officials are

SIPDIS
also reportedly considering conducting the quick count
themselves or foregoing entirely any preliminary counts for
the second round. The electoral body will need to decide on
this issue within the next week.


OEA Vigilant; Encourages Useful Dialogue
--------------


5. (U) The OAS Election Observation Mission (EOM) on October
19 released a 5-point statement, announcing that with 96% of
the presidential vote counted, a second round runoff was
certain. The EOM called for the provincial tribunals to
redouble efforts to quickly tabulate the remaining votes, and
said that EOM members were in Manabi and Esmeraldas closely
monitoring the count there. Later, the OAS observers would
visit other provinces to review preparation for the November
26 runoff. Stepping somewhat outside its purview, the OAS
statement also urged political parties and presidential
candidates to debate real ideas and proposals and refrain
from ad hominem attacks.

Noboa's Polling Firm Predicts Victory
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6. (U) Poll results can again be published in the media,
until November 6. The only poll publicly predicting the
second round comes from Noboa's personal polling firm,
"Consultar," which published the poll in paid advertisements.
The poll predicts Noboa will win overall by a margin of 53%
to 26% and will sweep the highlands, coast and Amazon
regions. Consultar has a long history of predicting Noboa
triumphs, and has been on Noboa's payroll for 18 years.
However, it was the only firm to predict Noboa's first round
win in this election.


7. (U) Consultar's owner, Augusto Bernal, claims his survey
covers all 22 provinces, with a sample size of almost 7,000.
Bernal claimed that Noboa's firm voting base, developed over
the past eight years and augmented in the October 15
election, consisted of about 20% of Ecuadorian voters. He
predicted PRIAN would become the dominant bloc in the next
Congress, with 27 deputies. We expect other polling firms to
be active over the weekend, with results early next week.

Correa Moderates, Offers the Poor Tangible Promises
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8. (U) Since the first round vote, Correa has changed his
campaign strategy to present concrete proposals to help the
poor. During his "Thank the Voter" campaign tour he promised
to double payments to poor families for schooling and
housing. While Noboa has been promising to construct 300,000
houses for poor Ecuadorians, Correa now proposes a $5,000
housing grant for each citizen for housing costs.


9. (U) Correa has also moderated his campaign rhetoric to
permit alliances with traditional parties, which he formerly
criticized as part of the corrupt "partidocracia." Instead,
Correa now says he will "dialogue with neighborhood and city
leaders from all the parties and movements." Previously,
Correa said he did not consider the FARC terrorists; now he
says he deplores the FARC's attacks, human rights violations
and kidnappings and would pursue, jail and deport any FARC
member caught in Ecuador. In the first round, Correa said he
considers Hugo Chavez his friend and visited Chavez in
Venezuela; now he says he would end the friendship if Chavez
attempted to interfere with Ecuadorian sovereignty. He has
also stopped emphasizing a prospective constituent assembly
as a focal point of his campaign.

Internal Dispute Threatens ID
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10. (U) The Democratic Left's (ID) dismal performance on
October 15 has incited an internal blame game. Currently the
second largest congressional bloc, they are expected to drop
to fourth place. ID President Guillermo Landazuri on October
18 declared the party's unilateral support for Rafael Correa
in the second round, expressing hope that a Correa government
would fight corruption, reduce poverty, maintain the
country's dignity in international relations, and encourage
political reforms. Landazuri's proclamation was immediately
rejected by other prominent ID members, who called for his
resignation as ID president. Many within the party,
including former vice presidential candidate Ramiro Gonzalez,
view this year's electoral performance as proof that internal

restructuring and modernization is in order.

Parties Draw Line
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11. (U) Leon Roldos (RED) in a television interview on
October 20 said that he would not support Rafael Correa in
the second round, citing a dirty campaign and Correa's
radical political agenda. Gilmar Gutierrez (PSP) has not
officially proclaimed support for either candidate, but
elaborated a series of demands intent on punishing
participants in the irregular removal of his brother from
office. The PSP and PRIAN share similar populist political
leanings and flirted with a political alliance in the first
round, making second round convergence more likely. The
centrist United Christian Democrats (UDC) leadership left
their supporters free to decide. Outgoing UDC Congressman
Ramiro Rivera urged party members not to support Correa. The
far left MPD and Pachakutik will likely support Correa.

Comment
--------------


12. (C) The E-Vote scandal continues, but official
presidential results have lessened uncertainty in its wake.
If congressional results continue to favor Noboa's PRIAN
party, a Noboa presidency could have the congressional
support whose lack has doomed so many recent Ecuadorian
presidents. Correa's shift to more moderate rhetoric focused
on concrete proposals for the poor is a nod to Noboa's
winning formula for the first round. Despite Correa's
agility on the stump, party alliances appear to favor Noboa.
The PSP has more to offer Noboa than previously suspected.
And the ID's ability to deliver votes to Correa is
increasingly suspect. But while Noboa backers now appear
almost complacently confident of victory, Correa tirelessly
continues campaigning with his more moderate new message. We
believe it is far too early to count him out.
JEWELL