ELECTIONS: FIRST ROUND RESULTS CONFIRMED,

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 002584 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS AND USAID/LAC E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2016 TAGS: KDEM PGOV EC SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: FIRST ROUND RESULTS CONFIRMED, PRIAN/PSP MAY LEAD CONGRESS Classified By: PolOff Erik Martini for reasons 1.4 (B&D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The official GOE vote count confirms an Alvaro Noboa vs. Rafael Correa second round match-up. Noboa's political party also looks set to become the largest bloc in the new Congress that takes office January 5, 2007. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) is struggling to decide how/whether to conduct a second round quick count; the OAS observation mission remains vigilant, observing the vote count process. Noboa appears confident of a second round victory, sticking to the campaign strategy he crafted for the first round. Correa, on the other hand, has dramatically altered his strategy and changed his rhetoric. Party alliances shaping up seem to favor Noboa, and the leadership of the Democratic Left Party is facing internal dissent over its early endorsement of Correa. End Summary. First Round Winners Confirmed with TSE Count -------------- ¶2. (U) The quick count system managed by Brazilian contractor E-Vote crashed in the early morning hours of October 16 with only around 72% of votes counted. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has continued with its slower official count. With 97.92% of votes counted, the results are similar to those obtained by E-Vote, firmly placing Noboa and Correa into the second round. An official announcement of final results is expected later on October ¶20. Current standings: Alvaro Noboa - 26.83 Rafael Correa - 22.86 Gilmar Gutierrez - 17.61 Leon Roldos - 14.75 Cynthia Viteri - 9.58 Luis Macas - 2.17 Fernando Rosero - 2.04 Marco Proano Mayo - 1.42 Luis Villacis - 1.33 Jaime Damerval 0.46 Marcelo Larrea - 0.42 Lenin Torres - 0.28 Carlos Sagnay - 0.24 Preliminary Congressional Results Favor PRIAN -------------- ¶3. (U) The TSE will take longer to count official congressional results. However, partial results indicate a major change in the balance of power in Congress in favor of Noboa's PRIAN party. Social Christian Party (PSC) officials have already admitted they will likely lose their status as the dominant congressional bloc and may only be the third largest force, behind PRIAN and the Patriotic Society Party (PSP). Alvaro Noboa's wife, Anabella Azin, is leading the vote count in the PSC heartland of Guayas province, but only 21.54% of votes have been counted so far in that province. (Note: Once counted, the votes must be processed by a mathematical formula to determine the proportion of congressional deputies for each party. End Note.) Null and blank votes, some protesting Congress' past legitimacy, range from 20 to 50% in the partial results being reported from various provinces. TSE Considers Quick Count Options SIPDIS -------------- ¶4. (U) TSE officials met late in the evening on October 19 to evaluate options for the now failed quick count in the second round. TSE President Xavier Cazar reportedly supports using television, radio, and other media outlets to conduct a quick count on November 26. The proposal calls for volunteer university students to collect the ballot tallies and deliver them to the coordinator who would then transmit results via telephone to the 22 provincial computation centers. Cazar's proposal was immediately rejected by television stations Ecuavisa and Teleamazones, who said the quick count was the TSE's responsibility, not the media's. TSE officials are SIPDIS also reportedly considering conducting the quick count themselves or foregoing entirely any preliminary counts for the second round. The electoral body will need to decide on this issue within the next week. OEA Vigilant; Encourages Useful Dialogue -------------- ¶5. (U) The OAS Election Observation Mission (EOM) on October 19 released a 5-point statement, announcing that with 96% of the presidential vote counted, a second round runoff was certain. The EOM called for the provincial tribunals to redouble efforts to quickly tabulate the remaining votes, and said that EOM members were in Manabi and Esmeraldas closely monitoring the count there. Later, the OAS observers would visit other provinces to review preparation for the November 26 runoff. Stepping somewhat outside its purview, the OAS statement also urged political parties and presidential candidates to debate real ideas and proposals and refrain from ad hominem attacks. Noboa's Polling Firm Predicts Victory -------------- ¶6. (U) Poll results can again be published in the media, until November 6. The only poll publicly predicting the second round comes from Noboa's personal polling firm, "Consultar," which published the poll in paid advertisements. The poll predicts Noboa will win overall by a margin of 53% to 26% and will sweep the highlands, coast and Amazon regions. Consultar has a long history of predicting Noboa triumphs, and has been on Noboa's payroll for 18 years. However, it was the only firm to predict Noboa's first round win in this election. ¶7. (U) Consultar's owner, Augusto Bernal, claims his survey covers all 22 provinces, with a sample size of almost 7,000. Bernal claimed that Noboa's firm voting base, developed over the past eight years and augmented in the October 15 election, consisted of about 20% of Ecuadorian voters. He predicted PRIAN would become the dominant bloc in the next Congress, with 27 deputies. We expect other polling firms to be active over the weekend, with results early next week. Correa Moderates, Offers the Poor Tangible Promises -------------- -------------- ¶8. (U) Since the first round vote, Correa has changed his campaign strategy to present concrete proposals to help the poor. During his "Thank the Voter" campaign tour he promised to double payments to poor families for schooling and housing. While Noboa has been promising to construct 300,000 houses for poor Ecuadorians, Correa now proposes a $5,000 housing grant for each citizen for housing costs. ¶9. (U) Correa has also moderated his campaign rhetoric to permit alliances with traditional parties, which he formerly criticized as part of the corrupt "partidocracia." Instead, Correa now says he will "dialogue with neighborhood and city leaders from all the parties and movements." Previously, Correa said he did not consider the FARC terrorists; now he says he deplores the FARC's attacks, human rights violations and kidnappings and would pursue, jail and deport any FARC member caught in Ecuador. In the first round, Correa said he considers Hugo Chavez his friend and visited Chavez in Venezuela; now he says he would end the friendship if Chavez attempted to interfere with Ecuadorian sovereignty. He has also stopped emphasizing a prospective constituent assembly as a focal point of his campaign. Internal Dispute Threatens ID -------------- ¶10. (U) The Democratic Left's (ID) dismal performance on October 15 has incited an internal blame game. Currently the second largest congressional bloc, they are expected to drop to fourth place. ID President Guillermo Landazuri on October 18 declared the party's unilateral support for Rafael Correa in the second round, expressing hope that a Correa government would fight corruption, reduce poverty, maintain the country's dignity in international relations, and encourage political reforms. Landazuri's proclamation was immediately rejected by other prominent ID members, who called for his resignation as ID president. Many within the party, including former vice presidential candidate Ramiro Gonzalez, view this year's electoral performance as proof that internal restructuring and modernization is in order. Parties Draw Line -------------- ¶11. (U) Leon Roldos (RED) in a television interview on October 20 said that he would not support Rafael Correa in the second round, citing a dirty campaign and Correa's radical political agenda. Gilmar Gutierrez (PSP) has not officially proclaimed support for either candidate, but elaborated a series of demands intent on punishing participants in the irregular removal of his brother from office. The PSP and PRIAN share similar populist political leanings and flirted with a political alliance in the first round, making second round convergence more likely. The centrist United Christian Democrats (UDC) leadership left their supporters free to decide. Outgoing UDC Congressman Ramiro Rivera urged party members not to support Correa. The far left MPD and Pachakutik will likely support Correa. Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) The E-Vote scandal continues, but official presidential results have lessened uncertainty in its wake. If congressional results continue to favor Noboa's PRIAN party, a Noboa presidency could have the congressional support whose lack has doomed so many recent Ecuadorian presidents. Correa's shift to more moderate rhetoric focused on concrete proposals for the poor is a nod to Noboa's winning formula for the first round. Despite Correa's agility on the stump, party alliances appear to favor Noboa. The PSP has more to offer Noboa than previously suspected. And the ID's ability to deliver votes to Correa is increasingly suspect. But while Noboa backers now appear almost complacently confident of victory, Correa tirelessly continues campaigning with his more moderate new message. We believe it is far too early to count him out. JEWELL