ELECTION: FIRST ROUND TO NOBOA, CORREA; SECOND

UNCLAS QUITO 002532 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS AND USAID/LAC E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KDEM PGOV EC SUBJECT: ELECTION: FIRST ROUND TO NOBOA, CORREA; SECOND ROUND NOVEMBER 26 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Banana magnate Alvaro Noboa and radical leftist Rafael Correa have won the first round of presidential voting on October 15, according to incoming official results, independent quick counts and exit polls. The two men now face a run-off election on November 26. Voting proceeded relatively smoothly on election day, but results were delayed and remain partial. On the eve of elections, Correa impugned the impartiality of the OAS mission led by Rafael Bielsa, and continued to assert that only fraud would deny him an outright victory in the first round. End Summary. Results -------------- ¶2. (U) Official quick count results, with 50% of voting precincts reporting, the results (percentage of valid votes) stand at: Alvaro Noboa - 27.43 Rafael Correa - 21.97 Leon Roldos - 15.78 Gilmar Gutierrez - 15.18 Cynthia Viteri - 10.95 Fernando Rosero - 2.12 Luis Macas - 1.96 Marco Proano Mayo - 1.57 Luis Villacis - 1.21 Jaime Damerval 0.60 Marcelo Larrea - 0.55 Carlos Sagnay - 0.35 Lenin Torres - 0.33 ¶3. (U) Unofficial from exit polls and independent quick counts generally agreed with the official tally. Immediately upon the close of voting booths, exit polls from three different polling outfits showed Noboa winning the first round with around 28%, followed by Correa with 27%. Two of the three gave Leon Roldos third place, but one showed Gilmar Gutierrez besting Roldos. Cynthia Viteri followed in fifth, followed by Fernando Rosero (2.3%),Luis Macas (1.6%),Luis Villacis (1.4%),Marco Proano Mayo (1.3%). With less than one percent support followed Jaime Damerval, Marcelo Larrea, Carlos Sagnay, and Lenin Torres, with 0.2%. Voting Process Generally Smooth -------------- ¶4. (U) Voting went relatively smoothly throughout the country, with isolated reports of irregularities or delays. Voting was suspended in the canton of Muisne, Esmeraldas province, after reports of irregularities involving ballots and controversy over outsiders attempting to vote. For the first time, Ecuadorians living abroad were able to vote at their consulates. There were 632 arrests for violations of Ecuador's dry law, which prohibits the sale or consumption of alcohol before and after elections. Correa Smears OAS Mission Chief on Eve of Election -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) On October 14, front-running presidential candidate Rafael Correa called on the OAS to replace Election Observation Mission Chief Rafael Bielsa, accusing Bielsa of political bias. At issue were Bielsa's alleged remarks at a two meetings, most recently at a lunch with journalists hosted by the Swiss Ambassador, on October 13. Correa accused Bielsa of signaling his political preferences and questioning the constitutionality of a constituent assembly, the centerpiece of Correa's campaign platform. Bielsa has publicly and privately denied the allegation, and was supported by several others who attended the lunch. Ambassador's Election Day Activities -------------- ¶6. (U) The Ambassador and the Canadian Ambassador together visited two polling places early on October 15. After observing the process, the Ambassador expressed confidence in the OAS observation mission to the press. Reaction -------------- ¶7. (U) Upon hearing of his apparent victory, Noboa immediately sharpened his differences with Correa, calling him a "terrorist-lover" and friend of Chavez. Correa claimed his own polls showed him winning outright with more than 40% of the vote and a 10-point margin over the runner-up. Any other results were false or the product of fraud, he said. According to Correa, OAS EOM chief Bielsa inspired no confidence, since he publicly claimed the process to be fraud-free while privately pointing out areas of concern to election authorities. Gustavo Larrea, Correa's chief political advisor, portrayed the second round match-up as between candidacies of the oligarchy (Noboa) and the citizens (Correa). ¶8. (U) Roldos wished Ecuador's next government stability and help from God, but was equally critical of Correa and Noboa, saying both represent authoritarian options. Both violated election rules by overspending their well-financed campaigns, he said, and Correa received funding from abroad. Roldos declined to predict which his Ethical Democratic Network (RED) would support--that decision would be taken democratically. He likened the choice to "between cancer and HIV/AIDS." For her part, Cynthia Viteri accepted the results gracefully, refusing to blame anyone for her defeat. Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) We will report Congressional results after they stabilize on October 16. Correa's attempt to discredit the OAS mission's neutrality is ludicrous, but Correa may keep playing the victim. With Noboa and Correa the clear finalists, the presidential enters a second and final phase culminating on November 26. Noboa now enjoys an advantage--only two of the last seven elected presidents won after entering the second round in second place. However, we expect a tough race between these two very different candidates, from different poles on the political spectrum. ¶10. (SBU) Correa's appeal is greater among the educated, middle and upper-middle classes of the highlands (33% to Noboa's 20% in the Sierra region, according to exit polls). Noboa is more popular with the coastal poor (36% to Correa's 23%). Both will seek endorsements and alliances; Roldos', Gutierrez', and Viteri's votes offer the largest prizes. Negative voting will also be an important factor on both sides. Fresh polling should help shed some light on voter preferences, polls are usually a better guide in the second round. Suggested Press Guidance -------------- ¶11. (U) Q: Any comment on Ecuador's October 15 presidential elections? -- the United States congratulates Alvaro Noboa and Rafael Correa, the two candidates who are moving on to the second round of elections, scheduled for November 26. -- The Organization of American States and other respected local civil society organizations observed the elections. The preliminary consensus opinion is that the elections, in general terms, were free and fair. We look forward to reviewing their final reports. Q: (If asked) What about Correa's accusations of electoral fraud and of bias against OAS observer mission chief Bielsa? -- We have confidence that the OAS mission operated with absolute impartiality and contributed greatly to the development of the democratic process. Q: (If asked) Would a win by Rafael Correa in the second round hurt U.S.-Ecuador relations? -- the United States has traditionally had good relations with the Government of Ecuador. We look forward to maintaining a positive, cooperative bilateral relationship with the next Ecuadorian government, consistent with our commitment to Ecuador's democratic institutions and the prosperity of its people. Q: (If asked) Are you concerned about Correa's ties to Venezuelan President Chavez? -- We respect the sovereign right of the Government of Ecuador to build relations with any government it chooses. JEWELL