ELECTIONS: CAMPAIGN CLOSES, ELECTION NIGHT WORRIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 002517 SIPDIS SIPDIS PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS AND USAID/LAC E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2016 TAGS: KDEM PGOV EC SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: CAMPAIGN CLOSES, ELECTION NIGHT WORRIES REF: A. QUITO 2436 ¶B. QUITO 2450 Classified By: PolOff Erik Martini for reasons 1.4 (B&D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The formal campaign period closes at midnight on October 12. Noboa received a rebuke from the Catholic Church for his use of religion in his campaign and Roldos veered further left on free trade. Electoral officials are scrambling to manage expectations of quick results on election night. The Constitutional Court's decision upholding the formula for apportioning congressional and council seats prevented any change in the election timetable. Increasingly dirty campaign tactics have surfaced, mostly aimed at Correa. End Summary. Quick Count May Not Be So Quick -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Balloting opens at 7:00 am and closes nationally at 5:00 pm (6:00 pm EST). Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) systems engineers have told Embassy that preliminary results will be calculated for the presidential elections first. Each voting booth will certify presidential results and then a police officer will hand carry the results to the precinct officials which will usually be in the same building. Then results will be phoned in by land line to one of three clearinghouses in the country, two in Quito and one in Guayaquil, where officials at the Brazilian firm E-Vote will be standing by. The GOE has hired E-Vote to perform election-day quick counting. ¶3. (SBU) E-Vote has been frantically trying to manage expectations. In the press, the firm prefers not to give a fixed time frame for election results. When pressed, officials have said they should have preliminary presidential results by 19:00 on election day, two hours after polls close, and congressional results by midnight. They say two factors could delay results: the time it takes for results to be counted, certified and carried by the police to the precinct officials; and, the phone lines may jam with all the extra calls made to report results from the 2,291 reporting centers. OAS workers report that during a simulation in Guayas, the most populous province of Ecuador, only 10% of results had been analyzed by E-Vote after three hours of simulation. The E-Vote chief in Ecuador, admitted to the press the firm's problems counting results quickly during the simulation. ¶4. (C) The Embassy is supplying 35 of the 120 accredited OAS election observers who will call in preliminary quick count results to the OAS mission. There will also be NGO observers reporting their own quick count, but they will only cover about half of the precincts. For the first time, the media will be allowed to report exit poll results after the polls close. Embassy personnel will monitor results reported from the field, media and the TSE (IVG line 644 4409) on election night. We will report first round presidential results as soon as available, but given the problems with E-Vote and other quick counts, an accurate report could be delayed well past 19:00. Campaign Dirty Tricks Aimed at Correa -------------- ¶5. (C) Members of the business community in Guayaquil are reportedly funding a nationwide phone bank that makes 500 calls per hour claiming to be seeking support on behalf of the Correa campaign. During the calls, potential voters are urged to, for example, vote for Correa and return Ecuador to the Sucre (in areas where currency stability and dollarization are popular). One in five people reportedly change their favorable opinions of Correa after the calls. Focus groups based on these calls indicate voters are not bothered by Chavez, Castro or Correa's association with them, even if Correa were proven to have received funding from Chavez. ¶6. (C) A fake poll marked "For Exclusive Use of the U.S. Embassy in the Republic of Ecuador" began circulating October 11 showing Cynthia Viteri in second place and ultimately winning in the second round. The poll was marked as sponsored by "Dichter & Neira," a fake firm, and two other international firms. The poll sparked requests for comment from seven major print and TV media outlets; Embassy IO managed to kill the story with a clear statement that the USG had commissioned no election polls and had no familiarity with any of the three firms cited. Meanwhile, the Correa campaign accused the Social Christian Party (PSC) of handing out posters and buttons with photos of Correa with Chavez. Noboa's Religious Cloak Draws Church Ire -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Noboa is hitting his populist stride in the closing days of the campaign, casting himself as devoutly religious. Wearing a black shirt with an enormous rosary, he knelt at one campaign event with recipients of his donated wheelchairs to pray for healing. On other campaign stops he is seldom found without a bible or rosary in hand and often prays with his supporters. In his closing campaign rally in south Quito he thanked God for having chosen him to be the candidate of the poor. His tactics provoked the Catholic Episcopal Conference to denounce his use of vestments and religious claims during the political campaign. Many are offended by Noboa's tactics, with leading leftist pundit Carlos Vera expressing disgust and chastising the Church for not speaking out sooner. Constitutional Court Removes Election Obstacle -------------- - ¶9. (U) The Constitutional Court threw out a controversial challenge to the way votes would be counted and apportioned in congressional elections (Ref A). The ruling is significant because it solves an issue that could have potentially thrown the election schedule into disarray. The Court upheld the constitutionality of the weighted ("ponderado") mathematical formula for distributing seats in Congress and on provincial and municipal councils proportionally. Roldos Places More Restrictions on FTA -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Roldos' latest veer to the left has him further dimming prospects for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) under his would-be administration. During the most recent debate, Roldos said not only would he put any FTA negotiated to a popular referendum, but he would also require "protection for migrants" as part of any deal -- an obvious appeal to the 140,000 migrants eligible to vote in this election from overseas for the first time, and to their families back in Ecuador. During his campaign closing rally the night of October 11, Roldos again said his government would never sign an FTA with the U.S. unless the agreement "includes benefits for migrants." Roldos' continuing rush to best Correa's appeal has not reversed his fortunes, according to recent polls. Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) Election officials and their contractors acknowledge potential for additional stress on election machinery due to delayed reporting of results. With the TSE (through E-Vote), the OAS, assorted NGOs, and the media all performing separate quick counts and exit polls, the potential for confusion and divergent results increases. We do not believe widespread fraud is likely, but logistical glitches and isolated incidents could feed into the fraud-expectant atmosphere already primed by some of the candidates (Ref B),most notably Correa, who claims only fraud would explain falling short of an outright victory. JEWELL